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Paul Mosgovoy
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Market updates are no longer posted to this site. All updates and communication are posted on LinkedIn: Please request a link to be added to my network. Thank you, Paul Mosgovoy
My book:
Market Masters: Livermore, Wyckoff and Loeb
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  • Counter Trend Complete

    Obviously, the iShares Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM) has been challenging.

    The position in the Direxion Russell 2000 Bearish 3X (NYSEARCA:TZA) has been maintained throughout this correction.

    IWM is moving down with ease.

    Please monitor my LinkedIn account for further updates.

    Thank you.

    Disclosure: The author is long TZA.

    Additional disclosure: Illustration only. Not investment advice.

    Aug 15 10:59 AM | Link | 2 Comments
  • Testing A 5-Year Trend-Line

    The weekly chart of the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSEARCA:IWM) below shows detail of price action testing the underside of a trend-line break.

    (click to enlarge)IWM Weekly

    Chart by TeleChart

    Notice that price action began to fade at the close (as seen on a daily chart....not shown) and was not able to hold near the high of the day.

    That action suggests that the break is going to hold and that the reversal from early July is still in place.

    I have updated my view of the Elliott Wave count on the hourly chart below.

    (click to enlarge)IWM Hourly line

    Chart by TeleChart

    Since today's action was a 38% retracement from the low, I have changed the count to indicate that we may be at the top of Wave 2.

    I am not going to list an "alternate" count as I consider Livermore and Wyckoff analysis to be more reliable than Elliott Wave (as stated in previous updates).

    The purpose for using the wave counts was to generate a projection for the on-going move. If we are indeed at the top of Wave 2 and about to continue down. The downside target for Wave 3 is now in the area of 100 - 103.

    I have used the P&F charts as well to obtain a projection. Those projections are posted on my LinkedIn account.

    Please reference this link for the P&F counts.

    Disclosure: The author is long TZA.

    Additional disclosure: Illustration only. Not investment advice.

    Aug 11 5:12 PM | Link | 2 Comments
  • Russell 2000: Next Leg May Be Underway

    The past several days have shown how difficult it is to call a continuation reversal in the middle of a trend (and why it is important to enter early).

    It looks at this point, that the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSEARCA:IWM) has completed its counter-trend move and is about to continue its next leg lower.

    If the IWM continues to adhere to an Elliott Wave structure, it is during this move (Wave iii of Wave 3) that will get the attention of the general public and the media.

    (click to enlarge)IWM Daily Chart

    Chart by TeleChart

    This area of the move is what is termed the "Prechter Point", where there is a recognition and admission that the overall trend has changed.

    Of course, this recognition happens well after the fact.

    If we go back to the July 3rd analysis, we see just how ephemeral it really is during a reversal. It seems to be an area that stands still in time.

    Richard D. Wyckoff refers to this exact phenomenon in his book titled: "Studies in Tape Reading".

    Disclosure: The author is long TZA.

    Additional disclosure: Illustration only. Not investment advice.

    Aug 07 11:31 AM | Link | 2 Comments
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