Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Paul Nathan  

View Paul Nathan's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • I Smell A Trading Opportunity Coming [View article]
    Very good, David. Good points all.
    Mar 3, 2014. 01:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Smell A Trading Opportunity Coming [View article]
    G...

    Good analysis. I agree except if we do see a return to deflationary pressures the central banks will throw everything they've got at them. That could lead to inflationary expectations. This will efffect the Bond market and commodity markets.

    Paul
    Mar 3, 2014. 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Smell A Trading Opportunity Coming [View article]
    Gotta pass on that one.
    Mar 3, 2014. 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Commodities Are Soaring [View instapost]
    I click onto this site all the time. There is no ETF to my knowlege, but the CRB has been a reliable commodiy index for years and is used on CNBC frequently to show what commodities are doing.

    http://bit.ly/1hZIM1p
    Feb 28, 2014. 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Commodities Are Soaring [View instapost]
    The CRB is the Commodity Research Bureau index and is composed of 15 commodities including oil which has a 15% weighting. Try googling that and see if it comes up.
    Feb 28, 2014. 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Commodities Are Soaring [View instapost]
    I'm always open to the possibilty of a fake rally and a reversal. As a trader I'm not dogmatic in my views. But what I see is an increase in inflation as the driving force behind the commodity move. I agree this could change -- nothing in markets is inevitable.

    But inflation did reverse this last quarter from moving down, to moving up, and that has not been lost on the commodity market.
    Feb 28, 2014. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Follow-Up To My Bullish Gold Call [View article]
    Yes Swiss, I do put my money where my mouth is. My Info Is available in my Market Update sent weekly, and you can get an introduction plus my record and bio by going to paulnathan.biz. Thanks for your interest.

    Paul
    Jan 29, 2014. 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I've Turned Bullish On Gold [View article]
    Eagle,

    I don't disagree with your point that there is no inevitable connection between rising inflation and rising gold. I agree there are examples of both. The key is knowing when inflation becomes a cause and when it doesn't. I contend that under the present context, it will. And I pair that with the assumption of higher demand world wide for commodities due to resumed world growth.

    Can I be wrong? of course! Economics is as much an art as a science. As an old friend use to say, "we will see in the fullness of time."
    Jan 11, 2014. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I've Turned Bullish On Gold [View article]
    Swiss,

    Point well taken. I was referring to the future, but the energy boom in general has allowed us to import less oil and gas affecting our trade deficit. And let's not forget diesel, propane, and other legal exports. But I refer to you and others more expert in this field than I am.

    Let me make a broader point: North America could well be on it's way to forming a major economic and monetary block. With Mexico's move to deregulate it's energy industry, Canada producing like gangbusters, and with America's technology and know-how, the future looks a lot brighter than when viewed though the negatives we live with today.

    Thanks for your interest.
    Jan 10, 2014. 07:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I've Turned Bullish On Gold [View article]
    Eagle,
    You say, "The author's premise that rising interest rates should bring on rising gold prices is a blatant contradiction. Higher interest rates are a gold bug's biggest enemy since it kills investment demand for a non dividend paying asset."

    During the 70's interest rates soared past 20% and gold hit 850. The reason was increasing inflation. As I said,

    "Where gold has been discounting disinflation and possible deflation since October of 2011 and has been falling, I think it will begin to discount 2 to 4% inflation rates over the next year or two. Whether through a return to easier money by the Fed to prevent deflation, or just plain higher world growth and demand for commodities as inflation finally moves higher rather than lower, I think 2014 will be a year of higher commodity prices. Once inflation stops falling, the discounting process of falling commodities will also end. Instead of commodities discounting weakening world demand, they will begin discounting strengthening world demand, and higher prices will result."
    Jan 10, 2014. 03:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed May Move To Lower Interest Rates On Reserves [View article]
    Your take on the effect on stocks, commodities IF implemented?

    UP!
    Nov 26, 2013. 04:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time For A Change In Monetary Policy [View article]
    Trent,

    Yes there is an increases, but the rate of increase has fallen about 2% since January - and this as the Fed buys 85B worth of bonds and mortgages per month.
    Nov 3, 2013. 09:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time For A Change In Monetary Policy [View article]
    Kudos to all those who commented about this article. It would take about six new articles to address properly many of the very good points made. But let me make a couple of points in response:

    Economics is a science, but it is not a physical science. As such, it is limited. Predictions of future events, for example, are not a part of science. The classical economists such as Adam Smith and Ludwig von Mises, did painstaking treatises on the science of economics. Both separated the economy from politics to deal with the nature of economics.

    Obviously we are far from that today. But even so, the same principles apply. There is no difference today between supply and demand and how it affects business, commodities, and the economy as was the case a hundred or two hundred years ago. In that sense, science is science.

    And second, monetary theory is not the same as economic theory: they are different in nature. What is becoming blatantly obvious from the first time QE was initiated and almost everyone was sure that QE was inflationary, is that it isn’t. Why it isn’t, is the key to understanding today, whether “tapering” is necessary or not. For that I suggest you Click here: Why Prices Are Not Skyrocketing - PaulNathan.biz for a further discussion of this subject.
    Thanks to all for a very interesting comment session.
    Nov 2, 2013. 07:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking A Hard Look At The Dollar [View article]
    FX,

    The taper is off the table until at least March and may be off the table permanently. (See my past articles on gold and the Fed, here and on my site paulnathan.biz). As I said in this article China will inevitably move toward monetary independence, but it will take a very long time before it severs it's currency from the dollar.

    But the dollar is moving lower and could break down due to many reasons. It is a new factor up front to watch.

    Thanks for your interest,

    Paul
    Oct 18, 2013. 01:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Gold Is Predicting Now [View article]
    aarc,

    I understand. I sold out and went to 100% cash in 2011. My Market Update on my site has been bearish on gold all the way down. So as a trader, I'm an agnostic and certainly not a "true believer". This article takes no position bullish or bearish on trading gold, just using it as a "tell".

    Thanks for your interest.
    Oct 7, 2013. 06:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
111 Comments
117 Likes