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Paul Nathan  

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  • Today's $30 Drop Puts Recent Gold Run-Up In Question [View article]
    To all,

    It isn't just the fall in the price of gold. It's the falling CRB, the crashing AG prices, and the deteriorating world growth picture -- all of which have developed in the last couple of weeks. I am still bullish on gold for the year, but open to the possibility that a change in the fundamentals is taking place.

    Oil just fell under a hundred dollars today, the CRB is down again today, and the money supply as defined by M2 is up a mere 100 billion for the year! The money supply in circulation chasing goods is flat. No wonder retail sales are in a "funk". And the Fed continues to tighten. This is not the fundamentals of an inflationary/growth scenario friendly to higher gold prices.

    Paul
    Jul 15, 2014. 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Falling Interest Rates And Falling Gold Prices Have In Common [View article]
    Fiat-Bux

    "the relative stability of gold in this environment is about the only prediction I feel comfortable making".

    Consider...gold predicted the downturn in the first half of 2013 and fell from 1600 to 1180, then rallied to 1400 in August of that year, and the GDP climbed to 4.1%. Yet, by December gold had fallen to 1180 again predicting the first quarter slide in GDP to minus 1%. Again we rallied to 1400 by mid March, and today we are running back toward 3-4% GDP. Now we are falling back toward the lower end of the range of gold again. Is this forecasting another fall coming in GDP?

    Talk about a yo-yo market. This is far from the "L" shaped economy we experienced for 6 years. And as for the Fed distorting our markets, why are gold and interest rates doing the same thing in Europe, China, Japan -- all with different monetary policies? I say again, central bankers need to re-think their monetary policies. They are not working, and may even be counter productive.

    As we are all concentrating on inflation today, gold and falling interest rates could be forecasting deflation and recession tomorrow.

    PN
    Jun 2, 2014. 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Smell A Trading Opportunity Coming [View article]
    Thank you for correcting my use of the terms. I guess you can say that the bond market is bullish only because of a fear of deflation and recession. But like I said, one of the markets is wrong. And there lies a tale...
    Mar 8, 2014. 04:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Smell A Trading Opportunity Coming [View article]
    This article has to do with the contradiction between the bond market and the stock market. For my views on which market I'm playing right now see...

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Mar 3, 2014. 04:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Smell A Trading Opportunity Coming [View article]
    Very good, David. Good points all.
    Mar 3, 2014. 01:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Smell A Trading Opportunity Coming [View article]
    G...

    Good analysis. I agree except if we do see a return to deflationary pressures the central banks will throw everything they've got at them. That could lead to inflationary expectations. This will efffect the Bond market and commodity markets.

    Paul
    Mar 3, 2014. 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Smell A Trading Opportunity Coming [View article]
    Gotta pass on that one.
    Mar 3, 2014. 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Commodities Are Soaring [View instapost]
    I click onto this site all the time. There is no ETF to my knowlege, but the CRB has been a reliable commodiy index for years and is used on CNBC frequently to show what commodities are doing.

    http://bit.ly/1hZIM1p
    Feb 28, 2014. 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Commodities Are Soaring [View instapost]
    The CRB is the Commodity Research Bureau index and is composed of 15 commodities including oil which has a 15% weighting. Try googling that and see if it comes up.
    Feb 28, 2014. 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Commodities Are Soaring [View instapost]
    I'm always open to the possibilty of a fake rally and a reversal. As a trader I'm not dogmatic in my views. But what I see is an increase in inflation as the driving force behind the commodity move. I agree this could change -- nothing in markets is inevitable.

    But inflation did reverse this last quarter from moving down, to moving up, and that has not been lost on the commodity market.
    Feb 28, 2014. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Follow-Up To My Bullish Gold Call [View article]
    Yes Swiss, I do put my money where my mouth is. My Info Is available in my Market Update sent weekly, and you can get an introduction plus my record and bio by going to paulnathan.biz. Thanks for your interest.

    Paul
    Jan 29, 2014. 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I've Turned Bullish On Gold [View article]
    Eagle,

    I don't disagree with your point that there is no inevitable connection between rising inflation and rising gold. I agree there are examples of both. The key is knowing when inflation becomes a cause and when it doesn't. I contend that under the present context, it will. And I pair that with the assumption of higher demand world wide for commodities due to resumed world growth.

    Can I be wrong? of course! Economics is as much an art as a science. As an old friend use to say, "we will see in the fullness of time."
    Jan 11, 2014. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I've Turned Bullish On Gold [View article]
    Swiss,

    Point well taken. I was referring to the future, but the energy boom in general has allowed us to import less oil and gas affecting our trade deficit. And let's not forget diesel, propane, and other legal exports. But I refer to you and others more expert in this field than I am.

    Let me make a broader point: North America could well be on it's way to forming a major economic and monetary block. With Mexico's move to deregulate it's energy industry, Canada producing like gangbusters, and with America's technology and know-how, the future looks a lot brighter than when viewed though the negatives we live with today.

    Thanks for your interest.
    Jan 10, 2014. 07:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I've Turned Bullish On Gold [View article]
    Eagle,
    You say, "The author's premise that rising interest rates should bring on rising gold prices is a blatant contradiction. Higher interest rates are a gold bug's biggest enemy since it kills investment demand for a non dividend paying asset."

    During the 70's interest rates soared past 20% and gold hit 850. The reason was increasing inflation. As I said,

    "Where gold has been discounting disinflation and possible deflation since October of 2011 and has been falling, I think it will begin to discount 2 to 4% inflation rates over the next year or two. Whether through a return to easier money by the Fed to prevent deflation, or just plain higher world growth and demand for commodities as inflation finally moves higher rather than lower, I think 2014 will be a year of higher commodity prices. Once inflation stops falling, the discounting process of falling commodities will also end. Instead of commodities discounting weakening world demand, they will begin discounting strengthening world demand, and higher prices will result."
    Jan 10, 2014. 03:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed May Move To Lower Interest Rates On Reserves [View article]
    Your take on the effect on stocks, commodities IF implemented?

    UP!
    Nov 26, 2013. 04:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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