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Paul Nouri, CFP

 
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  • Arkansas Best: Stock Could Jump On Positive Outcome From Labor Negotiations [View article]
    The stock is trading at around tangible book value, and their PP&E is well depreciated. I agree that any outcome from the negotiations should ultimately be a positive one for the company. However, you might be giving the union leaders too much credit. I don't think they take particular issue with holding 7,500 well paying jobs hostage for the sake of their reputation. We saw it with Hostess and we've seen other examples. Either way, the stock is super cheap, especially among the cyclicals.
    Apr 30 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What It Really Costs To Mine Gold: The Goldcorp Edition [View article]
    I suppose the metric you put forward can be useful in certain circumstances, but I think that the reason a metric like this is generally not used is because different companies have different expansionary plans at different points in their life cycles. The point of taking costs of expansion and discovery out is the following. Lets say Gold goes down to $1,000 per ounce...I would hope that management would pull back significantly on expansion and discovery. On the other hand, their direct costs of operating the mine are somewhat fixed. I can see some wisdom in placing the cost of managing the company into the price per ounce, but not exploration.
    Apr 12 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Opko: Retail Investors Vs. The Insider Cliff [View article]
    With the markets at 52 week highs, there are plenty of stories completely out of touch with where they should be, especially small caps.
    Apr 9 09:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Healthcare Services: Worth At Least $10.60, Probably More [View article]
    If that's really what you think, there could be an opportunity to long AIQ and short RDNT. This way, if the sector does get hit, you have some downside protection.
    Apr 3 03:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Healthcare Services: Worth At Least $10.60, Probably More [View article]
    You can't just add the interest expense back in. They'd be paying tax on the money that they're not spending on interest. So, optimistically, you can add $30 million of that back. Also, the company's history of hitting its numbers is not good. Moreover, the company doesn't have any book value or tangible book value. In 2010 & 2011, the company spent effectively all of its extra free cash flow on acquisitions. You have to count on them not doing this going forward. Their own 2013 guidance is for only $30 million of free cash available to pay down debt. Take the EV of $600 million and divide by $30 million and you get a 20x multiple. That is not cheap. If they can show in the first half of the year that they are capable of resuming profitable growth, then I can see the multiple expanding. Until then, the high level of debt leaves them in a vulnerable position to any future volatility in the business.
    Apr 3 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Healthcare Services: Worth At Least $10.60, Probably More [View article]
    Reimbursement is a moving target. There can be a reimbursement decision in 6 months that knocks rates back down.
    Apr 3 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Healthcare Services: Worth At Least $10.60, Probably More [View article]
    I have wanted to like this company for a long time, but have not been able to get past the debt. The enterprise value is around $600 million. Their operating cash flow in 2013 should be around $100 million. Take out $55 million for capex and principal payments for equipment, and the enterprise trades at around 13x free cash flow. I don't think it's expensive, but its not cheap either. We'll have to see if the affordable care acts drives utilization enough to offset reimbursement pressure.
    Apr 2 07:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Endologix Shows How Growth-Hungry Med-Tech Investors Are [View article]
    These kinds of valuations are becoming commonplace in smallcap medtech...SPNC, PODD, DXCM
    Mar 29 08:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The False Link Between Higher Stocks And A Stronger Economy [View article]
    you're right. It's what people think of the fundamentals.
    Mar 29 06:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The False Link Between Higher Stocks And A Stronger Economy [View article]
    I think the primary investments, if a scenario plays out where people won't take the risk of buying treasuries anymore for the little reward they receive, will be Gold and foreign sovereign bonds (Australia & Brazil to name a couple) with more attractive risk/reward profiles.
    Mar 27 11:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The term "high-yield" doesn't quite cut it anymore as the 30-day SEC yield on the High-Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) threatens to drop below 5%. [View news story]
    It's a bubble like any other. All it takes is one tail event to unwind all of these highly speculative positions.
    Mar 21 04:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The term "high-yield" doesn't quite cut it anymore as the 30-day SEC yield on the High-Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) threatens to drop below 5%. [View news story]
    Wow. Incredible. The thought of risk doesn't enter people's minds anymore.
    Mar 20 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After Nearly Doubling In 2 Months, Shares Of Best Buy Appear To Trade At Fair Value [View article]
    There's probably someplace to meet in the middle where Best Buy's pricing will come down and Amazon's may go up a bit.
    Mar 20 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After Nearly Doubling In 2 Months, Shares Of Best Buy Appear To Trade At Fair Value [View article]
    That's the model, but on the day I purchased it, it was actually being sold and shipped by AMZN for $80 and was at the Best Buy store for $150.
    Mar 20 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After Nearly Doubling In 2 Months, Shares Of Best Buy Appear To Trade At Fair Value [View article]
    It was the exact same model. Panasonic Blu Ray, 3d, wifi.
    Mar 19 07:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
338 Comments
167 Likes