Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Paul Price  

View Paul Price's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Illustrating My Decision To Invest In UPS [View article]
    I was quoting YOUR calculation for the trailing 10-years.

    An average implies there were periods of higher, and lower, multiples.

    Ten years is a statistically significant indicator or how the market actually valued UPS. That historical P/E level does not match what YOU think it should be going forward.

    History is real. Your projections are not grounded in fact.
    Mar 5, 2015. 07:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating My Decision To Invest In UPS [View article]
    You wrote that UPS has a historical 10-year median P/E of 19.15x.

    Assuming that "the market" should pay 21.28x earnings (how precise- to the hundredths of a point!) flies in the face of the stock's actual trading history.

    That makes your price target highly suspect.
    Mar 4, 2015. 08:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerson Electric: How The First Quarter Went And What We Can Look Forward To [View article]
    EMR is one of the best low-risk stocks available right now.
    15% - 25% in total return over the next 12- 18 months looks quite predictable.
    Feb 5, 2015. 01:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Purchase: Disney, Bolstering A Core Position [View article]
    Feb 5, 2015. 09:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Purchase: Disney, Bolstering A Core Position [View article]
    Disney has a 10-year median P/E of just 16x (source: Value Line).

    Yesterday's close was its highest valuation since early 2005. Paying too much is a total return killer. Disney peaked at $30 in the spring of 2005 and was available cheaper than that more than six years later, at $28.20, as recently as October of 2011.

    You are fooling yourself if you expect a good ROI from today's price.
    Feb 5, 2015. 09:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Will Beat The S&P 500 In 2015 [View article]
    Use this link to see an alternative viewpoint on INTC.
    Jan 18, 2015. 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Safeway Shareholder Vote-Approval [View article]
    A nice treatment of a complex topic.
    Thank you for publishing it.
    Jan 9, 2015. 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is No January Effect [View article]
    The January Effect refers to outperformance in January of mostly small-cap stocks, but also of other shares that had been beaten down badly due to tax-selling during December.

    It did not refer to an overall extra pop in the broad indices.
    Dec 25, 2014. 05:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Thing About Target's 'High' Earnings Multiple [View article]
    TGT showed FY 2007 EPS of $3.33. TGT earned $4.38 in 2012.
    They now expect $3.20 for FY 2014 (excluding their 44-cent data breach charge).

    Target's shares peaked at $70.80 in 2007 and finished last week at $71.51 for a 1% cumulative move over 7.5 years.

    Wal-Mart far outperformed TGT over the same period in both EPS and shareholder total return.

    Why pay a premium price for what has been extremely crappy management?
    Nov 23, 2014. 02:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: Why You Should Consider This Oil And Gas Champion On The Pullback [View article]
    XOM's 10-year median multiple has been 11.0x, so its 12 P/E, on likely to decline 2015 estimates, is not especially cheap based on its previous trading history.

    Integrated giant Chevron (CVX) offers a similar picture. A moderate current P/E that is still well above its own normalized 8.5x multiple.
    The dividend yields are decent but the stocks have a bit of downside and not much profit potential unless crude prices head upwards again.
    Oct 12, 2014. 09:51 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bull That Is Buy Low, Sell High [View article]
    I agree with creese. It is hard to take away any actual advice from your article.
    Oct 6, 2014. 09:05 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retired Investors: Learn The Success Secret Of All Great Value Investors: Part 2 [View article]

    Your article is a very nice presentation on value investing.

    I've been using similar valuation techniques with great success for more than 35 years.
    Sep 24, 2014. 08:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tim Hortons-Burger King entity sticks to Canada plan [View news story]
    As a 'friend of Barrack'... Buffett will get a free pass on this.
    Aug 26, 2014. 08:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Judge tosses lawsuit claiming BP misled regulators about Gulf platform [View news story]
    Why did it take 5 years to find out there were no supporting facts?
    Aug 25, 2014. 07:27 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Express Scripts: M&A Activity Blurs A Profitable Enterprise [View article]
    Using a 2005 starting date for your calculation period seems inappropriate since the complexion of the company changed radically with the 2012 Medco merger.

    The numbers, since the business combination, don't look impressive in ESRX's current iteration.

    Separately: Putting 80% of your invested capital in any one stock is very bad risk management regardless of how well you might like a particluar company.
    Jun 19, 2014. 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment