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Paul Sigrist

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  • Should Twitter Be In Your Portfolio? [View article]
    In the interest of full disclosure, when the articles are written there is no bias one way or the other. We rely solely on the metrics used within the article. I do agree that strictly using the conventional valuation models Twitter is overvalued. This article particularly surprised me as it pertains to the findings. I did not expect TWTR to present more upside in the next 12-24 months than Facebook. That finding was a true surprise.
    Sep 16 04:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Facebook A Buy, Sell Or Hold? [View article]
    $200 in the next 4-5 years is an interesting valuation. It isn't out of the realm of possibility, but I'm genuinely interested to hear your valuation model and projections. If you're willing that is.
    Sep 12 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reviewing The 3 Best Stocks Of 2014 [View article]
    The original article was written in 2013 forecasting the best stocks for 2014. The statement you quoted:

    "If you had to hold an automaker, it would be prudent to go with one of Ford's competitors."

    This statement was not a review of the forecast from 2013, but should be viewed as a forecast looking ahead over the next 52-weeks. All of the stocks mentioned in this article give a review of the performance of the stocks since the original article was published in 2013, then concluded with a forecast looking at the next 52-weeks.

    I hope this helps resolve any confusion their might have been. In the future I will be sure to identify the review of a forecast and the prognostication on a forward-looking basis more succinctly.
    Sep 12 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Niche Could Help Facebook Grow Aggressively [View article]
    Good points. With Facebook entering the P2P business, the purchase of What's App, and FB toying with the idea of using drones and satellites to provide internet access, it appears Facebook is positioning itself to enter the banking space.
    Apr 14 05:14 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Q2 Results Are Likely To Disappoint [View article]
    Couldn't agree with you more. AAPL's time has come and gone. The Fall of Apple
    Apr 4 10:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: 3 Specific Reasons I'm Still Bullish [View article]
    I understand the bullish sentiment on Apple, and the points you raise are quite valid. However, I firmly believe their time has past.

    The Fall of Apple
    Apr 3 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Dividend Will Hit $20 Within 5 Years [View article]
    While your thesis is possible, it is highly improbable. The fall of Apple has already begun.
    Mar 28 06:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Expect In 2014: Part I [View article]
    Rising interest rates have very little to do with inflationary pressures in 2014, but more of a desired impact on 2015. Interest rate adjustments take, on average, between 12-18 months to have an actual impact on the economy. An interest rate change in early 2014 won't have an impact until mid 2015.
    Dec 8 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bear Vs. Bull: JPMorgan [View article]
    The best "pound of flesh" scenario the government could hope for is to break up JP Morgan to mitigate potential risks down the road from a systemic perspective.

    The London office won't be closed as the state side regulators have no authority there.

    The government definitely does not want to replace Jamie Dimon as he was a major factor and contributor in helping get through the financial crisis (watch the movie "Too Big to Fail" if you want a quick way to review his part in that process).

    A more traditional banking style would mean breaking up the investment side and traditional banking side into separate entities. That would be a sector effect if the government has it's way. It would mean the likes of BAC, C, and others would be broken up as well. This would take years to enact.

    Voters will always feel that banks aren't accountable. That is just the nature of the beast. If the Fed is successful in breaking up the banks, that would go a long way in restoring consumer confidence in the sector in my opinion. Either way, banks will still be the place most individuals go for banking services and investment advice and services.
    Sep 26 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bear Vs. Bull: Lions Gate [View article]
    I tend not to speculate on possible takeovers. Especially in the case of Lions Gate, there are many moving parts. I have yet to hear of any possible takeover bids for LGF at this point, which is goes hand-in-hand with the expected value of the Hunger Games series. As an analyst, I believe this series is the next Harry Potter/ Twilight multi-billion dollar franchise.
    Sep 26 01:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There Any Room For A Bidding War In BlackBerry? [View article]
    I see no value left in BBRY's devices, as laid out in the article. It simply costs BBRY too much to continue to update and monitor the OS and network in general. That is why I see value in shutting down the device side of the business. As for the patents, that is a completely different story. I believe these patents are undervalued in the marketplace. I have been a BBRY bear for years now, but the patents deserve a better valuation than $9 per share in my opinion. However, the state of the company's balance sheet is dragging down that value quickly.
    Sep 25 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There Any Room For A Bidding War In BlackBerry? [View article]
    Not necessarily true. Fairfax has six weeks to do their due diligence on Blackberry. That could bring up questions that cause Fairfax to walk away. Also, this could be a tactic by Fairfax to simply stop the skid of the stock as they own 10% of it. It presents Fairfax an opportunity to exit at their own pace.

    Blackberry would love to go private if for no other reason than to get out of the "fish bowl" provided on Wall Street. However, they may not have an opportunity to do so if Fairfax withdraws the offer and other bidders fail to materialize. Blackberry is simply burning too much cash to withstand more than another year or two on it's own two feet.
    Sep 24 02:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There Any Room For A Bidding War In BlackBerry? [View article]
    Blackberry simply doesn't have the ability to completely revamp their product line to accommodate an Android OS. Blackberry is in an obvious consolidation mode with the layoffs, write downs, and redirection of focus from a consumer product to a commercial product. Considering the cash burn rate, Blackberry doesn't have enough time left to implement the strategy you laid out without being bought out first. Blackberry obviously made a critical error in not switching to an Android OS in their latest models. That MAY have saved them.
    Sep 24 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There Any Room For A Bidding War In BlackBerry? [View article]
    Obviously, over the next six weeks we will find out if there are any other bidders. I believe Fairfax will be able to find someone to join them in taking Blackberry private if no other bidders enter the race. There is just too much value in possible licensing deals going forward for Blackberry. It's entertaining to think that I have been a bear on Blackberry for a few years, and only now do I see possible hidden value in the company.
    Sep 24 12:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There Any Room For A Bidding War In BlackBerry? [View article]
    Dell is a far stronger company in my opinion. If you have the ability, use an option spread on BBRY to capitalize on potential moves in either direction.
    Sep 24 12:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment