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Paul Wagner  

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  • S&P 500 Earnings Inflated Due To Buy-Backs? Surprising Truth [View article]
    Is it logical to conclude that my (hypothetical) portfolio populated by all of the S&P 500 companies is bound to outperform the Index, because buy backs that increase EPS and cause share prices to rise are "adjusted out" of the Index's calculation of total EPS of the 500 companies?
    May 22, 2015. 11:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Union Pacific: How To Trade Around A Core Position [View article]
    Ray, I enjoyed your article very much. I am currently working on an SA article kinda sorta along the same lines. I was wondering: have you calculated your total realized and unrealized gains and total dividends since your initial purchase? If my question was asked and answer earlier in the comments section, I apologize: I haven't read the comments.
    May 20, 2015. 08:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warning: Don't Let Market Hype Cause You To Miss This Total Return Opportunity [View article]
    David..."Sometimes you have to do your own footwork."

    I never considered that. I'm going to try to remember it. Thanks for the tip.
    May 19, 2015. 12:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Learning From The Masters: Q&A Session With Chris DeMuth Jr. [View article]
    tuliptown..I too was impressed by the credit card arbitrage. However, I wonder what credit card company would enter into a contract with a kid under 12 years old. Maybe Mom or Dad was a helper?
    May 19, 2015. 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warning: Don't Let Market Hype Cause You To Miss This Total Return Opportunity [View article]
    Chuck volunteered the following quote from Morningstar:

    "Given JCI's lack of consistent revenues and earnings growth, the company's earnings growth is below the earnings growth of its competitors, and, therefore, the market is assigning a price-to-earnings multiple to JCI that is lower than the price-to-earnings ratio assigned to its competitors."

    It would have been helpful if the article had compared JCI's valuation and its fairness to those of its competitors. If the competitors' earnings growth is greater and perhaps more consistent than JCI's, a task left to the reader is to explore those alternative opportunities before making a decision about JCI.
    May 19, 2015. 08:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should I Have Followed My Advisor's Advice ? A Look At 4 Year Performance [View article]
    Hi, Bob

    Great article. Of course, I knew how it would turn out before I started reading it. Unlike you, I don't look back. I just know how I do relative to the most popular index because Fidelity puts the comparison in front of me whenever I check my positions.

    Regarding your two questions at the end of your article: 1. I have never had a financial advisor. 2. I have begun work on an article for SA exploring how I harvest capital gains, since I don't really have a DG strategy per se. My withdrawal strategy is to withdraw whatever I need when I need it. That's the only answer I can give because all of my income comes from my investments.
    May 15, 2015. 04:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims [View news story]
    good news bad news...the chart suggests we are close to a recession.
    May 15, 2015. 07:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims [View news story]
    teejii..these numbers don't tell much about incomes and spending. If you have a part time job, you are not unemployed. That doesn't mean you make enough to spend anything beyond the essentials, it just means you aren't unemployed. We have a lot of part-timers in this country, who are hoping this isn't as good as it gets.
    May 14, 2015. 02:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing Requires Perseverance [View article]
    peace4...this comment isn't about the quality of the companies who make the products you referred to. I only point out that just because products are made and sold forever doesn't necessarily insure that the companies who produce them will always be good investments. General Motors never stopped making Chevrolets and JC Penney is still in business and the New York Times is still the apparent be all to end all in the newspaper business. But, those haven't been great investments, despite their staying power.

    The main reason to own a business isn't because of the nature of the product it sells. The main reason to own a business is because of the money you can make owing it. So, while we'll all continue to incur nicks and cuts (that always sounded to me like "Nixon cuts") and need a bandage, we can't be sure JNJ will always find the Band-Aid business to have the kind of margins it requires of its products.

    Every company's 10-K includes a discussion of the risks to the business. Granted, most of it is boilerplate required to be in there by the SEC. Still, the risks aren't "made up" ones; it's just that most of them can be managed around and can be reserved for.

    Here is a link to JNJ's risk disclosure. (BTW, I like JNJ, am long JNJ and expect JNJ to keep selling Band-Aids forever.).
    May 13, 2015. 04:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing Requires Perseverance [View article]
    Coaly1234...Don't be overly influenced by the terms; they simply represent convenient groupings of companies based on the length of their rising dividend HISTORIES. As to articles you read, ask yourself if you understand them. Do you understand the business issues?

    A company's yield is an indicator of two things, which are wrapped into what is typically referred to as risk: the perception of the future growth (if any) of the dividend, and the quality of the company's earnings, cash flow and balance sheet.

    If you feel the yield of T (or any company) adequately compensates you for the risk of owing it -----vis a vis other opportunities --- then you should feel good about owning it.

    Your question was "when" do you sell it. Answer: as soon as you feel your money is better off being invested in something else.
    May 13, 2015. 09:46 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing Requires Perseverance [View article]
    Glenn..I enjoy your 15 year predictions.

    They remind me of the currently running commercial where the employee comes to her manager's office to deliver her notice of her retirement in 15 years.
    May 13, 2015. 09:26 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Tale Of Two Graphs- Why Bubble Finance Will Fail [View article] take from your comment: ratios of corporate enterprise value to U.S. GDP may be of limited value in the context of an expanding market overseas. Thanks for adding to the conversation.
    May 12, 2015. 10:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stress Test For Dividend Growth Investors [View article]
    Robert. I hear so much about individuals doing "much worse" than professionals who as a whole don't beat the market that I'm starting to feel that I'm pretty darn exceptional -- even though I know I'm not.

    Do the research studies on individual investors break down the group into cohorts of experience or effort or education? I don't want to see the research, I just want somebody to tell me that the researchers (who, to my knowledge never contacted me) didn't include day traders (who are not really investors) or cab drivers who get tips from drunk passengers, but did include people with some knowledge about how businesses work and what makes a good business.
    May 12, 2015. 07:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stress Test For Dividend Growth Investors [View article]
    s_belton12. You are dismissive of the hedging purposes that cash can support. Of course, there is a cost to a hedge. For example, if you are healthy, buying health insurance is not only (now, regrettably) mandatory, it is wise. But, in the end, it simply amounts to a hedge when purchased by a healthy person employed to protect your solvency in the event of a major medical issue.

    I retired early and healthy and my health insurance (i.e. hedging) costs were well below my deductible, so I had a negative financial return from investment. Not only that, as my age advanced, so did my premium cost until health insurance costs were my single largest living expense.

    Instead of "robbing themselves and their families", smart personal money managers sacrifice a little income (by holding some cash) in order to protect the lion's share of their income, so that they don't have to come to their family members hat in hand to ask for relief from what an economic disaster has done to them.
    May 12, 2015. 06:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stress Test For Dividend Growth Investors [View article]
    TeachEnglish... ironically (in view of your SA "name") in your search for a prejorative term to describe someone with whom you disagree, you found the wrong word. A shill is "1. a person who poses as a customer in order to decoy others into participating, as at a gambling house, auction, confidence game, etc. 2. a person who publicizes or praises something or someone for reasons of self-interest, personal profit, or friendship or loyalty.

    If Kernan was working for the other business news channel, perhaps there would be some basis for the accusation that he was revealing his conservative views in order to ingratiate himself with his employer (thus for personal economic benefit). But, NBC? Nah.
    May 12, 2015. 05:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment