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Paul Wagner  

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  • Portfolio Changes For The First Quarter Of 2015 [View article]
    J. Poulos: "When conducting my due diligence, I have often found the offerings of Value Line as one of the best sources of bias free research available.".

    I expected a follow on expansion of that statement relevant to your article, but there was nothing. (FWIW, I too value Value Line.) Just wondering where you were going with what turned out to be a stand alone comment?

    What is the typical holding period of your portfolio companies?
    Mar 27, 2015. 11:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Cost Of Holding Cash [View article]
    There is an opportunity cost for every investment. The cost is reflected in either return or risk. Holding cash is expensive in terms of return and now is artificially expensive because its real return is negative. As the article points out, in some places even the nominal return is negative. Now, when you buy cash by selling something else you are buying a known loss, but without reducing your risk to below zero. The goal is to avoid a greater loss or, ultimately, to realize a greater future gain at a later time. The primary justification for holding cash now is as insurance against loss greater than the opportunity cost of not having it employed.
    Mar 27, 2015. 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Krafting' Success For My Dividend Growth Portfolio [View article]
    muskie...if you sold yesterday, you got the dividend in the stock price. To get the dividend check you need to hold the shares on the day of the transaction. If you buy shares between now and then, $16.50 of your purchase price is the dividend.
    Mar 27, 2015. 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Krafting' Success For My Dividend Growth Portfolio [View article]
    Larry E...you're smart, in my opinion. You got your $!6.50 already and you could potentially pick up a few more bucks if the stock price were to go down for some unrelated reason.
    Mar 26, 2015. 08:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Krafting' Success For My Dividend Growth Portfolio [View article]
    christinebitg...I've always been despondent when a company I owned was bought as it put a lid on what I could make long-term. (I not happy about T buying DTV.). But, in this case, since it's only a part-cash deal and because the new company will ultimately be better than Kraft there is still upside.
    Mar 26, 2015. 08:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Krafting' Success For My Dividend Growth Portfolio [View article]
    richjoy..be thankful he spared you.
    Mar 26, 2015. 08:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Krafting' Success For My Dividend Growth Portfolio [View article]
    Mike...besides the cost savings from the synergies and perhaps some more international distribution (to the extent Kraft can legally distribute some brands overseas), the biggest positive in my opinion is the change in the management of Kraft.
    Mar 26, 2015. 05:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Krafting' Success For My Dividend Growth Portfolio [View article]
    DMG.."Keep in mind that the $16.50 special dividend will effectively reduce the current price per share to $66.67"

    What!? Dividends aren't supposed to reduce the share price! I imagine that $16.50 will come back by the end of the following quarter.

    (I'm just poking fun to stir the pot.)
    Mar 26, 2015. 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bear Claws My Dividend Growth Portfolio - Will I Cut And Run? [View article]
    Dividend Nut..."I keep looking for anyone on S/A or any other blog to come forward and tell me how liquidating retirement assets over a 30+ year period has worked out for them. "

    I'm not sure exactly what you mean by "liquidating retirement assets". If you mean using realized capital gains to provide cash flow in retirement (as opposed to total reliance on dividends, for example), that would describe my financing strategy for the first 18 years of my retirement.

    I can report 1) that my withdrawals have far exceeded my dividend income over the years and 2) that my account balances are greater now than they were 18 years ago.

    So, 18 years isn't 30+ years, but it does include a couple of market selloffs. In the last couple of years, I have repositioned one of two portfolios to more of a dividend-focused portfolio, so I am now getting the same warm and fuzzy that DG investors get as they see their dividend income covering their living costs. I have no criticism of DG investing, but I'll always believe that TR is the relevant metric.

    When you think about dividend investing, keep in mind that 18 years ago, money markets were yielding ~5%. It would be hard for a new retiree like myself to focus on dividends at the time. If money markets should provide similar returns sometime in the future, DG investing will have competition it doesn't currently have.
    Mar 26, 2015. 10:36 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bear Claws My Dividend Growth Portfolio - Will I Cut And Run? [View article]
    cyberloafing. Thanks. Should have read your comment before posting mine above.
    Mar 26, 2015. 12:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bear Claws My Dividend Growth Portfolio - Will I Cut And Run? [View article]
    ron...I assume the "newly created entity" will assume the debts of the two predecessors. Back in'07 I bought 30 non-callable Heinz bonds with a coupon of 6.375% and a price of $97.50 and maturing in 2028. There has already been a change of control so I'm not concerned that this merger represents an event that would justify a call, but admit I don't fully understand the implication of the merger for Heinz bondholders. For some reason the bond price quoted on Vanguard popped 8% today to $116. A call at this price wouldn't be awful, but I'd just as soon hold.
    Mar 26, 2015. 12:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Great 401(k) Experiment Has Failed? [View article]
    John Lezar...Ha! First, thanks. Second, I just looked at your profile and the similarities are amazing. I wasn't a banker, but a commercial finance guy (Heller), retired to 10 acres in the country; not a farm, but I had a big garden. It's where I took up golf, with the same results as you are apparently experiencing. Moved last October to an active adult 50+ community northwest of Chicago. Winter finds me in Arizona.

    Nice to e-meet you, John.
    Mar 25, 2015. 09:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Great 401(k) Experiment Has Failed? [View article]
    Leo...there's a lot I don't get; sometimes it's because I'm not paying attention and sometimes it's because the person communicating could have done a better job.

    Since I've already proven your last two sentences wrong by retiring 18 years ago at age 50 on money saved and a 401k, I'm not a good candidate to read blogs about how folks can't do what I did. It would be arrogant of me to tell people what they can't do, and particularly arrogant of me to tell people that they can't do what I did. It's more appropriate for me to try to help people do "the impossible" by sharing whatever wisdom I've acquired through my experience.
    Mar 25, 2015. 08:36 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Great 401(k) Experiment Has Failed? [View article]
    Robert....we don't disagree, my friend. I sometimes get my tongue stuck in my cheek. Read it again: I wrote that PLANNING is easy and just requires assumptions and math. Governments are prolific planners. The Soviets carried it to a whole new level. U.S. examples include the plan to end poverty and another to end illegal drug use. A third plan was to put a halt to illegal immigration. Even this article covers the government plan to spread the "deferred income" benefit to the masses. And now, we're told, that plan failed and we need a new plan.

    Government PLANS result in government programs. The government is less-well suited for conceptualizing, structuring or executing programs. And, particularly inept at terminating poorly conceived, structured or executed programs.

    There are exceptions: we did put guys on the moon. In 1969. That program worked well. It has been terminated.
    Mar 25, 2015. 02:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Great 401(k) Experiment Has Failed? [View article]
    banmate..."Teach finance in all 4 years in high school...".

    That's one approach. I would favor, first, a well thought out actual saving scheme starting in 1st grade which could "hook" kids on the merits of saving as a way of life.
    Mar 25, 2015. 02:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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