Paul Zimbardo - Seeking Alpha 'Paul Zimbardo' Tag RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/paul-zimbardo Research in Motion: A Long-Term Play http://seekingalpha.com/article/168744-research-in-motion-a-long-term-play?source=feed 168744 In the two years that I have followed Research in Motion (RIMM), there have been three consistencies: high revenue growth, extreme stock price volatility, and unrealistic analyst expectations. In those two years, I have remained bullish overall; however, I have moved in-and-out of the stock repeatedly and I believe that the market is giving investors a gift with RIMM’s current valuation.

To recap RIMM’s most recent quarter, second quarter EPS beat expectations by $.03 however revenue increased only 37% when the market was expecting 40%. As a result, shares plummeted approximately 25% in a matter of days. Seeing these tremendous expectations, I bought puts on RIMM and profited handsomely. Unlike many of its peers, RIMM increased its top line dramatically and was highly profitable but it merely failed to grow fast enough to match its inflated stock price. Was RIMM worth $88 in September? No. Is RIMM worth only $65 today? Unlikely.

]]> Mon, 26 Oct 2009 04:22:55 -0400 Paul Zimbardo In the two years that I have followed Research in Motion (RIMM), there have been three consistencies: high revenue growth, extreme stock price volatility, and unrealistic analyst expectations. In those two years, I have remained bullish overall; however, I have moved in-and-out of the stock repeatedly and I believe that the market is giving investors a gift with RIMM’s current valuation.

To recap RIMM’s most recent quarter, second quarter EPS beat expectations by $.03 however revenue increased only 37% when the market was expecting 40%. As a result, shares plummeted approximately 25% in a matter of days. Seeing these tremendous expectations, I bought puts on RIMM and profited handsomely. Unlike many of its peers, RIMM increased its top line dramatically and was highly profitable but it merely failed to grow fast enough to match its inflated stock price. Was RIMM worth $88 in September? No. Is RIMM worth only $65 today? Unlikely.


Complete Story »]]> AAPL RIMM Paul Zimbardo Kinder Morgan's Dividend Payout Rate Is Unsustainable http://seekingalpha.com/article/151685-kinder-morgan-s-dividend-payout-rate-is-unsustainable?source=feed 151685 Investors are increasingly turning to dividend stocks as the financial collapse of the past year has made many investors more risk-averse. Even in light of the recent positive economic indicators and corporate earnings, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the direction of the stock market.

For the stockholder, investment returns come from two portions: capital gains and dividends. In today’s business environment capital gains, even for financially sound companies, are far from certain while dividends from such companies are more assured and recur with frequency (usually quarterly).

]]> Tue, 28 Jul 2009 02:37:29 -0400 Paul Zimbardo Investors are increasingly turning to dividend stocks as the financial collapse of the past year has made many investors more risk-averse. Even in light of the recent positive economic indicators and corporate earnings, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the direction of the stock market.

For the stockholder, investment returns come from two portions: capital gains and dividends. In today’s business environment capital gains, even for financially sound companies, are far from certain while dividends from such companies are more assured and recur with frequency (usually quarterly).


Complete Story »]]> KMP PWE XOM Paul Zimbardo A Short Trip for Garmin? http://seekingalpha.com/article/148583-a-short-trip-for-garmin?source=feed 148583 Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) is a company that specializes in global positioning systems (“GPS”) technology, specifically stand-alone GPS receivers for automobiles. In fact, Garmin is so synonymous with GPS technology that Garmin is the first result on Google (GOOG) when searching for “GPS”.

After appreciating from the single digits in 2002 to reaching its all-time high of 125.68 in late October 2007, Garmin stockholders have watched Garmin’s share price plummet to 14.40 before stabiliFive Year Stock Performancezing in the low twenties. In 2009, Garmin is down 45.0% whereas the S&P500 is down “only” 26.6%. This previous high-flier has certainly fallen out of favor on Wall Street but was this just a case of heightened expectations crashing down as the economy weakened, or were there fundamental problems behind the decline? Also, were there any signals that could have alerted investors that Garmin’s stock price in October 2007 was unjustified?

]]> Tue, 14 Jul 2009 04:53:02 -0400 Paul Zimbardo Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) is a company that specializes in global positioning systems (“GPS”) technology, specifically stand-alone GPS receivers for automobiles. In fact, Garmin is so synonymous with GPS technology that Garmin is the first result on Google (GOOG) when searching for “GPS”.

After appreciating from the single digits in 2002 to reaching its all-time high of 125.68 in late October 2007, Garmin stockholders have watched Garmin’s share price plummet to 14.40 before stabiliFive Year Stock Performancezing in the low twenties. In 2009, Garmin is down 45.0% whereas the S&P500 is down “only” 26.6%. This previous high-flier has certainly fallen out of favor on Wall Street but was this just a case of heightened expectations crashing down as the economy weakened, or were there fundamental problems behind the decline? Also, were there any signals that could have alerted investors that Garmin’s stock price in October 2007 was unjustified?


Complete Story »]]> AAPL GOOG GRMN RIMM TMOAF.PK Paul Zimbardo Why AT&T Is a Strong Growth Story http://seekingalpha.com/article/147838-why-at-t-is-a-strong-growth-story?source=feed 147838 AT&T (T) presents an above-average opportunity for at least the second half of 2009 because of its continued growth prospects with the reduced price iPhone/iPhone 3GS, attractive valuation, and remarkable yield. These characteristics outweigh my fears related to the uncertainty surrounding the Department of Justice probes and risks that AT&T will lose its exclusive contract with Apple (AAPL) for future iPhones to Verizon (VZ) or another competitor. Fundamentally this is a sound company that just happens to be surrounded by a lot of market noise.

The iPhone growth story has been written and reported ad nauseam so I will keep this brief: the iPhone trumps the competition. RIMM is a great company with a strong business (and growing consumer) presence but it lacks the breadth of apps or ease of use to really compete with the iPhone. Palm’s (PALM) Pre is the talk of the town but it will have severe difficulty breaching Apple’s walled garden or being able to reach critical mass with consumers. There is little debate that the iPhone has been anointed as the de-facto popular smart phone right now so investors may as well enjoy the ride similar to MOT (MOT) during the Razor craze (take note of MOT’s chart before, during, and after the Razor era for a warning tale).

]]> Thu, 09 Jul 2009 07:36:25 -0400 Paul Zimbardo AT&T (T) presents an above-average opportunity for at least the second half of 2009 because of its continued growth prospects with the reduced price iPhone/iPhone 3GS, attractive valuation, and remarkable yield. These characteristics outweigh my fears related to the uncertainty surrounding the Department of Justice probes and risks that AT&T will lose its exclusive contract with Apple (AAPL) for future iPhones to Verizon (VZ) or another competitor. Fundamentally this is a sound company that just happens to be surrounded by a lot of market noise.

The iPhone growth story has been written and reported ad nauseam so I will keep this brief: the iPhone trumps the competition. RIMM is a great company with a strong business (and growing consumer) presence but it lacks the breadth of apps or ease of use to really compete with the iPhone. Palm’s (PALM) Pre is the talk of the town but it will have severe difficulty breaching Apple’s walled garden or being able to reach critical mass with consumers. There is little debate that the iPhone has been anointed as the de-facto popular smart phone right now so investors may as well enjoy the ride similar to MOT (MOT) during the Razor craze (take note of MOT’s chart before, during, and after the Razor era for a warning tale).


Complete Story »]]> AAPL MOT PALM RIMM T VZ Paul Zimbardo