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Paul Zimbardo

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  • An Option Trade for RIM's Earnings Announcement [View article]
    I went with the Oct 80 put earlier this week and it looks like I may be in for a tremendous payout on this trade.

    Solid analysis, my thinking was similar. Expectations of 40% revenue QOQ in a recession had me a little afraid, especially given the 13% rise in shares this month.
    Sep 24 07:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Apple, Says Analyst [View article]
    My favorite aspect is his factors for continuing success: "continue developing new and innovative products".

    I cannot think of one company in which that would not apply. Nice boilerplate to throw in an analyst's report.
    Sep 4 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Invest Based on Google Searches? [View article]
    As always, I am never one to turn down a source of information, especially one with the weight of Google; however, this should certainly not be the primary factor when making investment decisions.

    In regards to "click fraud", I hardly believe that people are generating false searches for car buying or anything of the sort. For individual companies, perhaps, for macro trends, no.
    Sep 4 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insider selling has jumped to $6.1B - 30.6 times insider buys. TrimTabs CEO Charles Biderman: "The best-informed market participants are sending a clear signal that the party on Wall Street is going to end soon." (via)  [View news story]
    Regardless of whether the bull market is going to last, you would be foolhardy to not have taken some profits. It is impossible to sell at the absolute top.
    Aug 28 02:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Garmin's Nuvifone: Why I Don't Expect It to Gain Much Traction [View article]

    Garmin's gross margins have not be near 50% since 2006. If you investigate Garmin you will see that its financial performance and margins have been eroding quickly in the face of increased competition.
    Aug 28 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: Playing the Options [View article]
    I have to problems with this strategy:

    First of all, your return is rather low. For each contract you tie up $1,750 in cash to seek a return of $90 (before commissions and fees). This is a return of just over five percent for ~18 months. Not too great given the risks I will mention below.

    Secondly, anytime that you lockup a position for such a tremendous amount of time, you face great risks. Just look at what happened in the last year. A fall of 30% is not that unrealistic. If T fell so dramatically, it is likely that the dividend would be cut as well. While you may be happy to own AT&T today at $17.50 (who wouldn't?), you could find yourself waking up in January 2011 owning an AT&T without the exclusive rights to the iPhone, facing Verizon with the iPhone, increased regulatory pressures, a stronger Google model pushing wifi phones, and who knows what else.

    When factoring in these risks, I would demand a much greater premium than below five percent annualized.
    Aug 28 01:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A recent study (.pdf) highlights analysts and portfolio managers' favorite research tools. Top of the list: meeting with management and industry conferences. Bottom of the list: sell-side research, IR websites, and 'smart money.'  [View news story]
    Unfortunately individual investors typically do not have the ability to meet with management or attend these conferences. At least Seeking Alpha is allowing us to "talk to other investors", which 22% of the respondents said was "very important"!
    Aug 17 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Garmin's Nuvifone: Why I Don't Expect It to Gain Much Traction [View article]
    TomTom entering the iPhone below the $99 price point will put serious pricing pressure on Garmin in that sector. The fact that Garmin is trying to growth through external acquisitions only confirms my beliefs that the high-growth days are over for this company and it will never come close to regaining its glory days.
    Aug 17 10:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's is a well run company that DID beat the recession; however, should anyone be surprised? Newsflash: All low-cost retailers outperformed (such as Dollar General and Wal-Mart) their peers due to price conscious consumers. A better title for the article would have been "How McDonald's was well positioned for the recession".
    Aug 12 01:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amgen (AMGN +0.6%) pops after the FDA publishes briefing notes for Thursday's advisory committee meeting about Amgen's experimental bone strengthening medicine, denosumab.  [View news story]
    Denosumab (aka Prolia) would not only be another blockbuster for Amgen (in addition to Embrel and Aranesp), but would be a dramatic benefit to those suffering from osteoporosis and bone loss related to cancer. The safety concerns focusing on infection are serious, but are not unexpected. Hopefully the world is introduced to another beneficial medication sooner rather than later.
    Aug 11 02:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revenge of the accounting authorities? FASB is pushing to widen the use of mark-to-market accounting to include loans banks plan to hold until maturity. If the proposal goes through, it could set of a wave of writedowns.  [View news story]
    I understand why mark-to-market had to be loosened while the financial markets were on the brink of collapse, but in the long run, mark-to-market is better for investors. Requiring strict use of mark-to-market provides investors with a more meaningful and accurate portrayal of a company's financial situation. In contrast, one of the first tasks that an investor must do when presented with GAAP financial statements is dive into the footnotes to try and gleam as much information about market value as possible.

    The held-to-maturity classification merely expressed management's intent at the time. Although highly frowned upon (and the reason for the change is needed), these classifications can change and are far from set in stone. As an investor, I would rather have a conservative presentation of these financial instruments than one that reflects management's immediate intentions.
    Aug 11 10:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long Term Investing Appears to Have Gone Out of Fashion [View article]
    Am I the only who is surprised that the average holding period is as LONG as six months? Given the volatility in the market recently, I would have assumed that the average holding period was much closer to one month than to six.

    It will be interesting to see if this trend reverses when the economy fully recovers or if permanent damage has been done.
    Aug 9 09:34 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The NY Fed has a model that uses the spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasury rates to predict recessions. And it says the chance of recession in 12 months is zero.  [View news story]

    Precisely my thinking. Here is my prediction:

    Based upon the hourly spread between the days of the week, there is a ZERO percent chance that tomorrow will be Friday in New York.

    On Aug 07 01:29 PM youngman442002 wrote:

    > its zero because we are already in one
    Aug 7 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Garmin Stock Navigating to a Huge Gain [View article]
    I am impressed that the margins are recovering so quickly but there is little else to get excited about in this report. While sales topped analysts estimates by $12M (~2%), they still tumbled by almost $250YOY.

    Obviously everyone expected for revenue to fall but the most alarming part to be was that outdoor/fitness fell by nine percent. If Garmin hopes to recover, it is going to have to focus on this niche area as other main-stream areas continue to get eroded.

    Also, GRMN was downgraded by JPM with a price target of $28.
    Aug 6 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Progress Energy (PGN): Q2 EPS of $0.64 misses by $0.05. Revenue of $2.3B (+3%) in-line. (PR)  [View news story]
    Slightly disappointing results but some key points that keep me optimistic long-term.

    - Received approval for rate increase effective July 2009
    - Can delay pension expenses
    - Major capital projects are still on schedule
    - Share dilution is larger than expected (~$.03/sh)
    - Higher interest expenses are a drag on earnings
    Aug 4 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment