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Paul Zimbardo

 
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  • Research In Motion at Crossroads: Play It With Options [View article]
    I agree with your assessment but your option strategy appears to be far too risky.

    "If RIMM at option expiration ends at or above $70 or below $25, you make money. If RIMM goes to $100, you make four times your money. If RIMM goes the way of the dodo bird, and enters 2013 at $15 you triple your money. Seems like a reasonable risk/reward bet."

    You need for RIMM to fall by almost 50% or rise by almost 75% in 18 months just to break even. That does not seem like a "reasonable risk/reward bet".

    RIMM is not going to decline that significantly over the near term. More realistically it will face a "slow death" over the next three to five years. Conversely, the only way that RIMM will increase as dramatically as you need is it if is acquired. I cannot fathom anyone paying a 75% premium for a company that is in desperate need of a take over.

    You would be much better off with a strategy that has a reasonable chance of one of the legs coming to fruition.
    May 8 12:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple and Location Tracking: This Is Not 1984 [View article]
    Rocco,

    Thanks for another great post and the shout-out. I agree that this is largely noise and nothing will come of this for investors. Even the earliest cell phones "tracked" user location and behavior for two main reasons: 1. Billing and 2. Cell towers. Do people really think that cell phone companies don't know where they are? Verizon even has commercials where they consider it a feature to find a missing child!

    The only real reason why Apple could want the location information is to build its own mapping service to rival Google Maps but I hardly see such generic, anonymous information as an invasion of privacy.

    So many people willing volunteer their locations via facebook, twitter, foursquare, etc. but they call for government hearings when this "news" breaks. Apple investors should stay the LONG course.
    Apr 26 03:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rise and Rise of Apple: Time for a Split? [View article]
    Amazon, Netflix and VM ALL have P/Es greater than 70 versus below 20 for Apple. This means that the market expects more out of those three companies in terms of earnings growth than it does of Apple.
    Apr 25 07:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple to Benefit From Playbook's Premature Launch [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. Two quick points:

    1. Apple's low yesterday was 320.16 so the puts were/are still profitable.

    2. Apple is currently at 333 providing a healthy margin of a safety on the puts.

    Here is an excellent article explaining why Apple is a solid long-term buy now.

    tech.fortune.cnn.com/2.../
    Apr 19 12:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Cash Is Too Much? [View article]
    For reference, all of Apple's cash and cash equivalents have maturities under 90 days with at least an "A" rating. As of the last 10Q, Apple was earning ~.75% on these investments.
    Feb 28 11:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha Celebrates 500,000 Registered Users! [View article]
    I received my shirt as well. If you haven't received your shirt yet, stay calm! It is well worth the wait.
    Oct 9 10:31 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    I read an article in Businessweek recently that said that GM needed to be valued in the neighborhood of $60B for the government to be made whole on its "investment". Of course that was before underwriters fees, etc.
    Aug 12 10:01 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    Wishing Brenda Barnes a speedy recovery.
    Aug 9 10:08 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Google: iPhone 4 Its Mobile Ad Weapon of Choice [View article]
    Apple just updating its advertising rules for iOS. In brief, Google and AdMob will not be able to gather statistics for ads. This means that Apple will be able to control the vast majority of revenue on the iPhone.

    Source: www.engadget.com/2010/.../

    Additionally, it is worth noting that iAds is NOT limited to iPhone 4. Earlier generation iPhones and iPod Touchs with iOS 4 will be subject to iAds.
    Jun 8 05:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 34 S&P 500 Stocks Yielding More Than 5% Dividends [View article]
    Thanks for the article but it would be nice if you could add a column for betas next time you make an article like this. Would help in assessing the risk-return payoff.
    Jun 6 10:11 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ten years ago today brought the repeal of Glass-Steagall, which had split commercial and investment banking since the Depression. DealBook looks back at how few opponents the repeal had - and then there's Sen. Byron Dorgan (in 1999): "I think we will look back in 10 years’ time and say we should not have done this, but we did because we forgot the lessons of the past, and that that which is true in the 1930s is true in 2010."  [View news story]
    Dow Jones Industrial Average Nov. 12, 1999: 10,769.32
    Dow Jones Industrial Average Nov. 12, 2009: 10,197.47

    I think that speaks for itself.
    Nov 12 10:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Research in Motion Is a Takeover Target [View article]
    @ User 493712

    This "JamesApple" character is infamous around here for mindlessly bashing RIMM and all of Apple's other competitors. You can safely ignore all of his comments because none of them contain objective insight.


    On Nov 12 12:03 PM User 493712 wrote:

    > Hi James,
    > I initially did take your comments seriously because I thought some
    > of your opinions do make senses. However, after reading the comments
    > you posted about RIM in the past month, I start to believe you have
    > special agenda, which is to destroy RIM reputation by those untruthful
    > statements. I just cannot believe that a very profitable company
    > with excellent product (may not be that excellent in your mind) and
    > leading position in the market has nothing good in your "unbias"
    > opinions. By now, all your saying is to attach RIM. Your unconditional
    > love with Apple does not make RIM a bad company necessarily. I
    > don't know about your background. It appears that you have some
    > degrees of knowledge in finance and investing. Even though those
    > analysts bearish on RIM still think it is great company and current
    > downturn is due to "possible" competition (remember, it is just possible
    > not for sure yet and based on history, they were proved to be wrong.)
    > So for your own interest, if you still want to maintain your reputation
    > on this blog, please say something objective. Otherwise, your comments
    > will only become B.S. and joke in my mind.
    Nov 12 06:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time to Get Conservative? 50 Ideas for a Summer Sell-Off [View article]
    Another excellent article from Mr. Hickey.

    I narrowed in on AMGN as the best trade out of your list based on its risk/return profile and solid fundamentals even if I am forced to buy keep the stock short-term. Another plus for Amgen is its low beta of ~.5.

    In future articles of this type, I would complement the listing by including the equity betas.
    Aug 3 02:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Microsoft and Apple's Market Caps Should Be Reversed [View article]
    Excellent comment from Mr. Arends article on Marketwatch today:

    "I will repeat my caution. Over the past five years Apple has gained nearly 60% a year. The chance that it will do the same over the next five is remote. That would make it worth $1.25 trillion. The returns are likely to be more modest. And the risks will be greater."

    www.marketwatch.com/st...
    Jul 27 02:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Closing Update for Friday, July 10 [View article]
    Looks like we are in for quite an important week that could set the market's sentiment for the rest of the summer with the financial "heavyweights" reporting: Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, and General Electric. After crude's worst week of the year and yet another down week for the markets, I would not be shocked to see a rally on even the frailest of news.
    Jul 10 04:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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