Seeking Alpha

Paulo Santos

 
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  • Update: Google Slashing Cloud Computing Prices Again Is A Clear Negative For Amazon.com
    Wed, Oct. 1 AMZN 95 Comments

    Summary

    • Google has announced yet another 10% drop in cloud computing prices.
    • This is a major negative for Amazon.com, because its recent deterioration in earnings was mostly tied to the previous drop in cloud computing prices.
    • The market is aware of this link and is likely to react negatively to the news.
  • Update: Fire Phone And Kindle Voyage Developments
    Wed, Oct. 1 AMZN 50 Comments

    Summary

    • The Fire Phone flopped again, even on lower pricing. This has negative earnings implications.
    • The Kindle Voyage is also not holding its selling pace. This means the positive EPS impact from it will be reduced.
    • Overall, these developments show that the Amazon.com customer is incredibly price sensitive, leading to low profitability.
  • Update: A Change In Retrophin Might Be Relevant For Clinuvel
    Wed, Oct. 1 CLVLY Comment!

    Summary

    • Retrophin has been acquiring Clinuvel stock.
    • It thus becomes relevant that Retrophin saw an executive change at the top.
    • The move is a slight negative until uncertainty regarding Retrophin abates.
  • Clinuvel: A Reason To Be Cautious And A Reason To Be Positive
       • Tue, Sep. 30 CLVLY 4 Comments

    Summary

    • I've found what I believe is the reason for the recent sell-off in Clinuvel shares.
    • This reason does make one afraid that Scenesse might face an uphill battle at EMA.
    • However, at the same time I found reasons to believe the drug is solid and works well - beyond mere trial results, changing people's lives.
  • Clinuvel: Eternal Promise Or Something More?
       • Sat, Sep. 27 CLVLY 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Clinuvel presents an interesting background for a small biotech.
    • It seems more promising than your regular penny stock biotech, with its products showing promise on several skin indications.
    • Most importantly, trials seems to indicate potential in treating vitiligo, a very common skin disorder with a huge, underserved, market.
    • Given its market capitalization and its potential, I see Clinuvel as a decent biotech lottery ticket/long-shot with an upcoming catalyst hitting in October.
  • Truett-Hurst: An Interesting Equity With A Large Catalyst
       • Fri, Sep. 26 THST 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Truett-Hurst is an interesting pure play on the wine market that's showing strong growth due to its innovation and distribution expansion.
    • At the same time, Truett-Hurst is showing operational leverage, which promises improved profitability down the road, and is available rather cheaply given the growth that it's displaying.
    • But most importantly, Truett-Hurst has an upcoming catalyst which might turn the company into a massive multi-bagger if things go right.
  • A Smooth Exit From Stimulus Should Be Impossible
    Thu, Sep. 25 DVY, HYG, MORT 36 Comments

    Summary

    • The Federal Reserve is doing everything it can to provide a smooth exit from its monetary stimulus.
    • However, there are reasons to believe such a smooth exit will be impossible.
    • Look for large moves in asset classes which were favored by the money printing soon after it ends.
  • EVs Winning Is Not The Same As Tesla Winning
    Thu, Sep. 25 TSLA 282 Comments

    Summary

    • Tesla supporters seem to think that EVs winning is the same as Tesla winning.
    • Such is clearly not the case. If EVs win in any clear way, traditional car markets will be forced to compete directly with Tesla.
    • I show in a very simple way why such could mean the death of Tesla.
  • Update: Electromed Q4 FY2014 Earnings
    Wed, Sep. 24 ELMD 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Electromed reported Q4 FY2014 earnings.
    • In this report, Electromed achieved profitability, arguably well ahead of schedule.
    • Still, there's something in the earnings report which makes me go neutral on the name for now.
  • The Anti-Loss Leader Policy
    Mon, Sep. 22 AMZN 63 Comments

    Summary

    • Amazon.com is seemingly turning retail knowledge on its head.
    • By pricing flagship products at obviously expensive prices, Amazon.com seems to be using anti-loss leader products.
    • Amazon.com might thus reap results opposite of those a loss leader strategy seeks to attain. This, given Amazon.com's present positioning, might bring significant long-term problems.
  • Update: Recent Developments Keep MusclePharm Thesis On Track
    Mon, Sep. 22 MSLP 99 Comments

    Summary

    • Developments at MusclePharm continue to reinforce the original thesis.
    • There are further clues that the company has abandoned its dilutive ways.
    • The company is also launching new products which should be enough to keep growth alive.
  • One Can't Really Love Alibaba
    Mon, Sep. 22 BABA 43 Comments

    Summary

    • Alibaba is a very appealing company with massive size, profitability and growth prospects while not even being that expensive.
    • Its structure and a past event mean you can't really love its stock.
    • Alibaba is like a relationship demanding trust where trust was once broken. It's likely that trust will be broken again someday.
  • Amazon.com Finally Does Something Right
    Mon, Sep. 22 AMZN 93 Comments

    Summary

    • Amazon.com has been doing a lot of things wrong, with massively negative earnings impact.
    • However, this time Amazon.com has actually done something right.
    • Indeed, I expect a positive earnings impact of as much as $0.26-$0.35 (over a full year) from this thing Amazon.com did right.
  • The PHEV Arbitrage
    Mon, Sep. 22 TSLA 684 Comments

    Summary

    • Tesla has had massive success, showing other car makers there's a viable market in EVs.
    • This happened just in the last year and a half, so we haven't seen the true reaction yet.
    • I show that there's an arbitrage between the pure EV and the PHEV alternative. This arbitrage now favors PHEV so I'd expect most new EVs to be PHEVs.
  • 2 Significant Warning Signs
    Thu, Sep. 18 ANR, BHP, INTC 44 Comments

    Summary

    • It's hard to say whether negative fundamental developments are negative for the markets in a world where the worse the better, given the monetary response.
    • However, in this article, I identify two clear warnings signs which have been evolving in the last couple of months.
    • At the very least, these signs are negative for the sectors touched directly by them.
  • China's QE Is Not QE
    Thu, Sep. 18 FXI 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Yesterday the market received news of the Bank of China's liquidity injection as if Bank of China was embarking on its own version of QE.
    • I show that such isn't the case.
    • What this means is that no follow-on impact on high-risk assets is to be expected from such a program.
  • Amazingly, Yahoo Will Still Do Badly
    Wed, Sep. 17 YHOO 229 Comments

    Summary

    • Yahoo shares have been doing broadly as predicted, rising into the Alibaba IPO.
    • Unfortunately, the second half of the prediction still calls for underperformance right after the Alibaba IPO.
    • There are many reasons for this to happen, which are explained in the article's body.
  • Update: Tallying Up Model S Sales Up To August And Its Implications
    Tue, Sep. 16 TSLA 302 Comments

    Summary

    • We have updated data on Model S deliveries for July and August 2014.
    • This data highlights risk to Tesla's deliveries guidance both for the quarter and the year.
    • This development has significance in the context of future expectations for Model S sales.
  • A Discontinuity That's Not In The Market
    Editors' Pick • Tue, Sep. 16 LNG, UNG 31 Comments

    Summary

    • The market structure for U.S. natural gas is about to change.
    • This change is certain, yet not priced in the market.
    • This article explains what's about to happen.
  • The $1 Billion CFO Quiz And Other Developments
    Mon, Sep. 15 AMZN 143 Comments

    Summary

    • There were many new developments in Amazon.com while I was away.
    • This article addresses several of those developments, including the CFO departure, Amazon.com's debt, ChannelAdvisor data and others.
    • Not all of the developments are negative, but taken as a whole there is a surprising conclusion to be drawn.
  • The Dollar Rally Has Negative Equity Implications
    Mon, Sep. 15 SPY, SH, SSO 9 Comments

    Summary

    • The U.S. dollar has staged a massive rally.
    • This rally gains relevance for the overall market, because the largest companies in the market are multinationals with a large foreign exposure.
    • Given the magnitude of the rally, the foreign exposure and the growth expectations, I calculate how much of the present revenue growth expectations might be at risk.
  • Tesla And The Dilution Misconception
    Sat, Aug. 30 TSLA 132 Comments

    Summary

    • AtonRa makes the case for 3 different scenarios yielding very different values for Tesla.
    • Two of the scenarios yield upside, including his base case scenario.
    • I show that there's a serious and concrete defect with these scenarios, whose correction leads all scenarios to downside or no upside for Tesla using the same assumptions.
  • Amazon: The Twitch Acquisition Is, For Now, Highly Irrelevant
    Fri, Aug. 29 AMZN 42 Comments

    Summary

    • A lot of attention was given to the Twitch acquisition.
    • As always, people that are blind to the next quarter envisioned rivers of honey flowing in the years to come.
    • It can be shown, though, that the impact from the Twitch acquisition pales when compared to the impact from the Fire Phone bombing.
  • Update: Enphase, Thesis Has Played Out
    Tue, Aug. 26 ENPH 23 Comments

    Summary

    • Enphase had massive upside, as per my previous thesis.
    • This upside, however, has been realized.
    • From here on out, while further gains are possible and maybe even easy, they would already be speculative gains. Given how the thesis went, I am going neutral here.
  • Amazon: It Gets Weirder And Weirder
    Tue, Aug. 26 AMZN 180 Comments

    Summary

    • Recent news paints Amazon.com as if entering China and the advertising market.
    • This is very strange, because neither event is new.
    • Indeed, I can show that these facts were already news years ago.
  • Update: Emerson Radio Springs A Surprise
    Fri, Aug. 22 MSN 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Emerson Radio has long had lots of cash in its balance sheet.
    • Due to its rather unfriendly corporate governance, though, shareholders have not been able to touch that cash.
    • This changed today, so Emerson Radio had a positive development in what regards shareholder friendliness.
    • Still, I remain neutral because although Emerson Radio is now more friendly, the recent fundamental developments are still unfavorable and might lead to a lack of profits in the short-term.
  • MusclePharm Might Be A Monster
    Thu, Aug. 21 MSLP 84 Comments

    Summary

    • In previous comparisons, I compared MusclePharm to the growth stocks of today.
    • This time, I compare it to a directly comparable company, but ten years ago.
    • The result shows how MusclePharm is tracking the Monster Beverage story, and how if it manages to keep tracking that story its share price will explode upwards tremendously.
  • Semiconductor Stocks: Maybe It's Just A Blip, Or Maybe It's Something Else
    Tue, Aug. 19 INTC, MU, SOXL 26 Comments

    Summary

    • Micron and other semiconductor stocks were greatly favored by DRAM pricing and demand.
    • Now, for the first time in months, there might be reason to believe such a favorable trend is ending.
    • As such, it bears monitoring and perhaps warrants a more defensive posture for those who caught Micron's rally (as well as other semiconductor stocks).
  • One Thing Is Odd
    Tue, Aug. 19 AMZN 177 Comments

    Summary

    • The Fire Phone was celebrated by the analyst community when launched.
    • Like with so many other Amazon.com events, great estimates were awarded to the phone.
    • Yet, here we are, faced with hard data and the analysts are nowhere to be seen. Like with other instances, there seems to be something odd about it.
  • Update: MusclePharm Insider Buying Reinforces Thesis
    Fri, Aug. 15 MSLP 23 Comments

    Summary

    • Insider selling, or even buying, most time means little.
    • However here it's synergistic with my previous thesis.
    • The thesis is thus reinforced by the insider buying taking place in the last few days.
  • The Latest Unsustainable Trend
    Fri, Aug. 15 CSCO, IBM, PM 26 Comments

    Summary

    • Yet another unsustainable trend is rearing its head.
    • This time, it has to do with companies returning more cash to shareholders than they have in free cash flow.
    • I present three high-profile cases, though the trend is widespread.
  • How Loony Is It Getting? Three Tales From The Deep
    Wed, Aug. 13 AMZN, BAC, TSLA 56 Comments

    Summary

    • As the markets become more stretched, loonier and loonier things take place.
    • I identify three particular loony recent examples.
    • These take form because of the extreme confirmation bias necessary to keep holding onto deeply overvalued situations.