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Paulo Santos

 
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  • Apple No Longer Seems Massively Cheap, Even Ex-Cash
    Thu, Oct. 9 AAPL 159 Comments

    Summary

    • Apple is subjected to negative leverage due to the large cash position on its balance sheet.
    • This means that as the stock goes up, its ex-cash valuation goes up even faster.
    • Given this effect and how much Apple went up, as well as the nature of the market it relies on for most of its value, Apple no longer seems cheap.
  • A Tale Of Unbridled Optimism
    Tue, Jun. 24 AAPL 129 Comments

    Summary

    • There seems to be excessive optimism regarding what Apple's upcoming iWatch can do.
    • This is borne by the reaction to my former article. Expectations for the iWatch have gone irrational.
    • Excessive optimism is dangerous for the share price.
  • An iWatch Cannot Move The Needle Much
    Sun, Jun. 22 AAPL 387 Comments

    Summary

    • There's tremendous expectation regarding the iWatch.
    • However, I show that the iWatch cannot move the needle for Apple.
    • This is so even if we use rather optimistic assumptions, including making Apple the worldwide leader in the watch space, which is rather unlikely to happen.
  • Apple Is Acquiring A Fad - Not Quality - And That Is Troubling
    Fri, May. 9 AAPL 296 Comments

    Summary

    • Apple is acquiring Beats for $3.2 billion.
    • A check of Beat's history shows it likely that it's mostly just slapping a celebrity name into an OEM product.
    • So Apple is buying a fad, not audio quality. Apple could have easily bought audio quality instead, so buying a fad is troubling.
    • The acquisition itself is not really material for Apple's prospects, but the decision behind it is troubling and seems to show Apple is on the wrong track.
  • Apple Faces A Problem And Increasing Prices Will Make It Worse
    Mon, Apr. 14 AAPL 374 Comments

    Summary

    • Apple is rumored to be asking $100 more for its latest iPhone 6.
    • This is a problem, because Apple has lost its ecosystem advantage and its phones are already too expensive.
    • While the larger display is welcome, a larger price will make the share problem larger at a point where Android is already dominating.
    • There seems to be no way out for Apple. Either it sacrifices margins or volume, and both are bad outcomes.
  • Jabil Circuit Implosion Not Negative For Apple
    Dec. 18, 2013 AAPL 45 Comments
  • Apple Faces The Ever-Present 'Then What' Problem
    Dec. 12, 2013 AAPL 126 Comments
  • Another Insane Apple Advantage
    Oct. 2, 2013 AAPL 128 Comments
  • The True Objective Of The iPhone 5C
    Sep. 10, 2013 AAPL 184 Comments
  • Apple's Main Catalyst And Main Risk
    Sep. 4, 2013 AAPL 38 Comments
  • Translating Apple Inc.'s Guidance Into An EPS Number
    Jul. 23, 2013 AAPL 24 Comments
  • What iPhone 5 Discounts Could Mean
    Jun. 25, 2013 AAPL 155 Comments
  • Apple: iOS7 Might Be Another Shot In The Foot
    Jun. 13, 2013 AAPL 113 Comments
  • Apple's Magic Is Broken
    May. 19, 2013 AAPL 368 Comments
  • Implications Of Apple Guidance
    Apr. 23, 2013 AAPL 58 Comments
  • Further Signs Of Demand Weakness Now Hit The iPad Mini
    Apr. 9, 2013 AAPL 108 Comments
  • Apple Has No Choice But To Make A Larger iPhone
    Mar. 7, 2013 AAPL 90 Comments
  • The Massive Underperformance Of Apple Vs. Amazon
    Mar. 5, 2013 AAPL, AMZN 153 Comments
  • Einhorn's Apple Preferred Stock Dividend Solution
    Feb. 7, 2013 AAPL 70 Comments
  • Is Apple The 2000 Cisco/Microsoft Of Today?
    Jan. 28, 2013 AAPL 131 Comments
  • Apple iPhone 5: What Are The Implications From AT&T And Verizon?
    Jan. 22, 2013 AAPL 119 Comments
  • What's Worrisome About Apple
    Dec. 20, 2012 AAPL 129 Comments
  • The Lines Meme Seems Bogus
    Dec. 14, 2012 AAPL 97 Comments
  • The Reason Behind Apple's Beating
    Dec. 5, 2012 AAPL 124 Comments
  • The Unsung Apple Advantage
    Nov. 19, 2012 AAPL 90 Comments
  • Apple's October Sell-Off: Remarkably Similar To Last Time
    Nov. 5, 2012 AAPL 35 Comments
  • Apple: The Executive Wars
    Oct. 30, 2012 AAPL 105 Comments
  • First Indications On Apple's iPad Mini
    Oct. 15, 2012 AAPL 86 Comments
  • How Apple's Size Limits Its Valuation
    Oct. 3, 2012 AAPL 42 Comments
  • Without Steve Jobs, Apple Is Without A Map
    Sep. 23, 2012 AAPL 272 Comments
  • Apple: One More Thing
    Sep. 12, 2012 AAPL 387 Comments
  • Excessive Speculation In Apple Call Options?
    Aug. 17, 2012 AAPL 258 Comments
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