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Paulo Santos

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  • An Undiscovered Brand With Improving Margins And Strong Growth [View article]
    Yes, there's "a little aside" regarding that. But the company is growing quickly, so though Q2 and Q3 might lose from the absence of those promos, as time goes by the growth makes it catch up.
    Jul 9 09:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Undiscovered Brand With Improving Margins And Strong Growth [View article]
    VEST is basically starting out and is already worth 1/5 of MSLP.

    GM for MSLP is not incredible but it's improving and applies to already-large revenues also growing quickly.
    Jul 9 09:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Terrorists Have Already Won [View instapost]
    Well, given the measures these people willingly advance, which are in line with what Lenin thought ...

    See, if the point of this policy really was the "common good" and it required inflation and money printing, then the Fed would print and distribute to all Americans, instead of following a tactic which both manipulates markets and favors mostly asset holders, and within these, the very richest.
    Jul 9 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Amazon.com Web Services Problem [View article]
    The huge distribution network has probably been producing losses and is unlikely to ever do anything different.

    As for AMZN's massive earnings potential, that's the bullish thesis. But there's reason to believe AMZN's low margins are structural and resulted mostly from the changing sales mix:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 9 03:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Amazon.com Web Services Problem [View article]
    When I talked about CRM, I meant the Salesforce.com company, not CRM, Customer Relationship Management. There's not an analyst in sight which wouldn't consider those CRM revenues to be anything but "cloud".
    Jul 9 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Amazon.com Web Services Problem [View article]
    Again, it isn't like I'm alone out there in calling "application as a service" revenue, "cloud" revenue. Sure, AWS does not sell that, but it sells infrastructure as a service, which is also "cloud" revenue. That infrastructure service is only bought because people want to run applications in it, not because it's pretty or something.
    Jul 9 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Public Alert, "Paulo Santos", "Binary Options" [View instapost]
    Exactly, I do not. It's a scam.

    Hence this public alert, which I hope Google picks up.
    Jul 9 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Amazon.com Web Services Problem [View article]
    This article has to be seen within a series of other articles, I don't repeat my thesis on every one of them for sure. The main gist of my thesis is that the bullish thesis is false - that AMZN's profitability decline is structural for many reasons, the main of which is that the sales mix changed.

    This article just puts forward another detail - that due to a capex explosion, the free cash flow number is also likely to go away. This is important because people have been running from one variable to the next as each implodes. EBITDA/FCF is still one place where analysts hide. That, too, will be compromised.

    As for cloud revenues, I don't agree with you. You'd certainly not apply your logic to, say, CRM's revenues. You'd call them "cloud", so MSFT's Office 365 are every bit as "cloudy" as those. It's just whether one is talking about infrastructure as a service or application as a service, but both are "cloud revenues" when they happen.
    Jul 9 11:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Amazon.com Web Services Problem [View article]
    Again, what MSFT reports as cloud revenue is at odds with that "AWS is bigger than the 12 largest public cloud providers". It depends on what you count, but AWS being LARGER bolsters the argument regarding the capex explosion and thus the risk to AMZN's free cash flow. So it's hard to tell what you're arguing for, here.
    Jul 9 09:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Undiscovered Brand With Improving Margins And Strong Growth [View article]
    The market seems large enough that we aren't at the end of its cycle. I think it's more like buying a Red Bull not so far from its inception ...
    Jul 9 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Easton Pharmaceuticals Announces Legal Action Against Seeking Alpha Writer as a Response to Libelous Article [View article]
    Is this company American?
    Jul 9 07:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The NorthStar Realty Finance Spin-Off Arrives, Is No Massive Bargain [View article]
    No - I didn't get to know about AAMC until it was too late. Indeed, until it had inflated beyond reason.
    Jul 9 06:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Amazon.com Web Services Problem [View article]
    As it stands, MSFT reports more cloud revenue than AMZN. It depends on what you count, basically. But both GOOG and MSFT are seeing a capex explosion and AMZN will see it too. Even if the capex explosion is smaller over at AMZN, AMZN's free cash flow is so low that it doesn't take much to eliminate it.

    Having high capex is in the nature of the cloud business. It's basically infrastructure as a service, meaning, "renting infrastructure", meaning, whoever provides it has to buy the infrastructure so that others can rent it.
    Jul 9 06:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Amazon.com Web Services Problem [View article]
    More like $100.

    AMZN's EBITDA and FCF are inflated by several factors (stock-based compensation, capitalized software, content costs).

    AMZN has been taking a lot of measures to shore up earnings, including pricing the Fire Phone at an incredibly expensive price. We'll see how it goes. Previously, I had AMZN as being unable to have earnings much above $1 per share in any single year. Now I wonder if all the earnings-enhancing measures would make AMZN able to print above that. Obviously, even $2 or $3 don't warrant a $200, $300 share price.
    Jul 9 06:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Amazon.com Web Services Problem [View article]
    The first 2 bullets basically say that the price war is not the only problem. Then the capex explosion is introduced.

    As for the ROIC, how will we know? We don't. As far as we know, the thing does not throw off cash fast enough to warrant the investment within the useful life of what's being invested in.
    Jul 8 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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