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Paulo Santos

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  • Where Is The Bubble? [View article]
    It would be amazing if a nation could get rid of its debt by printing and having no consequences... at some point the scheme blows up because it makes no sense to produce and sell to such a nation.
    May 25 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is The Bubble? [View article]
    Depends on where the cash is and what the company is earning. Someone would gladly sell you an empty shell will $10 million cash abroad for $9.5 million or $9 million if that meant the money would enter the U.S. tax free.
    May 25 08:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is The Bubble? [View article]
    It's not a problem, GTS. The deficit can be much smaller - disappear entirely, even - under debt-taking and printing. For instance, income taxes take off due to the bubble provided by the printing.

    What matters is whether the economy "below" is sustainable once the printing and debt-taking ends or slows down.

    (during the dotcom bubble the deficit - then much smaller - also disappeared completely for 1 year or so)
    May 24 11:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is The Bubble? [View article]
    It really depends on how the statistic is made up. FRED is not clear about that.
    May 24 09:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is The Bubble? [View article]
    I say this because if nothing happens to the market, margin debt seems able to surpass $400 billion ... that's got to have an effect at some point.
    May 24 05:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is The Bubble? [View article]
    It can end in many different ways ... it can end with inflation and nominal prices and stock quotes going to the sky. It can end with a plunge...

    I think what we'll see is, somewhere within the next couple of months, the market will take a quick plunge and the Fed, which was already starting (or thinking of starting) to taper instead turns around and prints more.
    May 24 05:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is The Bubble? [View article]
    I don't think so. Most of it should be an effect coming from the debt-taking. Some of it might have to do with how foreign profits are accounted for - which is not clear.
    May 24 05:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is The Bubble? [View article]
    If the market dropped 15% the Fed would quickly INCREASE QE ...
    May 24 04:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is The Bubble? [View article]
    It could, and in that instance even if the market at first dropped in real terms, it rose brutally in nominal terms, both initially and throughout.
    May 24 04:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is The Bubble? [View article]
    PSalermo, if the overall level of earnings in the economy is inflated, it doesn't much matter if any company-specific ones don't seem to be. Even stuff that doesn't seem to be inflated, is, because demand even for seemingly impossible things like toilet paper could be lower.
    May 24 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is The Bubble? [View article]
    It has been corrected. Thanks again.
    May 24 03:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is The Bubble? [View article]
    These are overall, market-wide, earnings. Unless you think the nature of the overall earnings has somehow changed ...
    May 24 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is The Bubble? [View article]
    The bubble is in that the overall level of earnings is, itself, a temporary bubble. In other words, the price is a bubble because the divisor (earnings) is at an unsustainable level due to debt expansion.
    May 24 02:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is The Bubble? [View article]
    Dang,. I'll ask for a correction. Thanks.
    May 24 02:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is The Bubble? [View article]
    It's about the same reasoning, yes.
    May 24 02:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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