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Paulo Santos

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  • Amazon - The Mystifying Estimates For The Quarter Just Ahead [View article]
    Depends on how you look at margins - the U.S. margins "seem" better because people have taken to ignoring compensation paid in stock. Most of this is paid in the U.S. so "CSOI" margins appear better in the U.S. Also AWS is in the U.S. and might be profitable, so it helps the U.S. margins.

    Obviously I think (and have explained why) that compensation paid in stock cannot be ignored. If it could, you could make ponzi schemes out of the thing (companies that looked profitable just because they sold something at cost but paid the cost in stock).
    May 22 06:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft (MSFT) unveils the Xbox One, a 3rd-gen console it pitches as "the ultimate all-in-one entertainment system. The device has a rectangular, set-top box-like shape, a slightly bigger controller. a revamped Xbox Live UI, improved app/game loading and switching times, and fresh voice/gesture controls. AMD is widely believed to provide an integrated CPU/GPU for the system. (live blog) (previous[View news story]
    Trsanscripts, I mean demanding action games, for which consoles are usually used.
    May 21 09:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft (MSFT) unveils the Xbox One, a 3rd-gen console it pitches as "the ultimate all-in-one entertainment system. The device has a rectangular, set-top box-like shape, a slightly bigger controller. a revamped Xbox Live UI, improved app/game loading and switching times, and fresh voice/gesture controls. AMD is widely believed to provide an integrated CPU/GPU for the system. (live blog) (previous[View news story]
    How many people have you ever seen playing games in windows, using windows instead of full screen?
    May 21 08:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft (MSFT) unveils the Xbox One, a 3rd-gen console it pitches as "the ultimate all-in-one entertainment system. The device has a rectangular, set-top box-like shape, a slightly bigger controller. a revamped Xbox Live UI, improved app/game loading and switching times, and fresh voice/gesture controls. AMD is widely believed to provide an integrated CPU/GPU for the system. (live blog) (previous[View news story]
    I don't think anyone really wants to play windowed games.
    May 21 07:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon - The Mystifying Estimates For The Quarter Just Ahead [View article]
    lil, we don't need to "think" about this: we can check the P&L of several retailers, such as WMT or COST and SEE that their costs are LOWER than AMZN's.

    1) Means AMZN has a very similar business model to the Sears Catalog - it's a catalog, fulfills by mail order. The main difference is that AMZN's catalog is bigger and doesn't have to be distributed in paper, but the fulfillment is nearly the same thing. And the 80:20 rule means having a huge assortment doesn't necessarily translate into much better profits.

    2) While AMZN doesn't have to have as many employees in its warehouses as the stores, it does have to rely on a massive number of (third party) employees to make the deliveries. Obviously AMZN pays those AND a profit margin;

    3) In that normalized estimate he plugs in 1/3 of average costs which make no sense (tech, because AWS inflated it over time) or which are linked to GMV, not revenues (marketing).
    May 21 07:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon - The Mystifying Estimates For The Quarter Just Ahead [View article]
    Comments regarding that:
    1) AMZN is similar to the Sears Catalog in terms of costs, it doesn't have to distribute a paper catalog but it has tech costs, it can have more selection but most companies and retailers are affected by the 80:20 rule which means more selection doesn't help much.

    2) AMZN has the costs of picking, packing, delivery, which physical retailers don't have (the customers do it for them);

    3) The study ignores the fact that marketing moves with GMV, not revenues - precisely the kind of thing I've been warning about. It's flawed to the core due to this. It also ignores that tech is where AWS costs go so it can't get back to levels existing before AWS existed;
    May 21 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon - The Mystifying Estimates For The Quarter Just Ahead [View article]
    Tech is variable - it's mostly the cost of operating AWS, much like RAX's or EQIX costs are variable with their activities. It scales with AWS's size, though, not with the 1P + 3P revenues.
    May 21 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft (MSFT) unveils the Xbox One, a 3rd-gen console it pitches as "the ultimate all-in-one entertainment system. The device has a rectangular, set-top box-like shape, a slightly bigger controller. a revamped Xbox Live UI, improved app/game loading and switching times, and fresh voice/gesture controls. AMD is widely believed to provide an integrated CPU/GPU for the system. (live blog) (previous[View news story]
    The new Kinect does seem superior to anything that Sony is offering.
    May 21 01:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft (MSFT) unveils the Xbox One, a 3rd-gen console it pitches as "the ultimate all-in-one entertainment system. The device has a rectangular, set-top box-like shape, a slightly bigger controller. a revamped Xbox Live UI, improved app/game loading and switching times, and fresh voice/gesture controls. AMD is widely believed to provide an integrated CPU/GPU for the system. (live blog) (previous[View news story]
    They don't talk about the GPU ... seemingly the PS4's is stronger. With everything being very similar, that's somewhat surprising (the rumors already said this).
    May 21 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed should continue with QE, says St. Louis Fed chief Bullard, as the reaction in financial markets (stocks higher?) proves the purchases have been effective. He says the program should be adjusted (higher or lower) based on incoming economic data. He tosses out negative interest rates as a possible policy (why not), but suggests the effects of such a move would be minor. [View news story]
    if the market being higher is proof of the policy's effectiveness, why not buy shares directly? Indeed, buy ALL the shares at ANY price. That would surely make it go higher. It would be a huge success.
    May 21 01:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon - The Mystifying Estimates For The Quarter Just Ahead [View article]
    It's nice when the manipulation is on our side.
    May 21 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon - The Mystifying Estimates For The Quarter Just Ahead [View article]
    I explained how QE moved the markets more than one year ago here. The thing is, QE moving the markets (a certainty) is not the same as opting to print money left and right no matter how the economy is doing. The economy was not doing badly enough for the Fed to print money - the Fed chose to print to support markets, not the economy.

    It was arbitrary. You cannot predict something which is arbitrary.
    May 21 11:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon - The Mystifying Estimates For The Quarter Just Ahead [View article]
    What's the flawed strategy? Thinking that fundamentals matter? They WILL matter once the Fed lets them matter.
    May 21 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon - The Mystifying Estimates For The Quarter Just Ahead [View article]
    lil, that isn't right - AMZN's expenses are operational and variable with activity, that's the reason why I was right regarding its earnings and the analysts weren't.
    May 21 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon - The Mystifying Estimates For The Quarter Just Ahead [View article]
    Congratulations, then. I did well on my mindless automated systems as well.
    May 21 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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