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Paulo Santos

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  • Amazon - The Mystifying Estimates For The Quarter Just Ahead [View article]
    Congratulations, then. I did well on my mindless automated systems as well.
    May 21 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon - The Mystifying Estimates For The Quarter Just Ahead [View article]
    Gary, the CEO said they were not focused on earnings in what, 1997? The earnings imploded from late 2010 until now.

    The Fed has stopped and started several times, historically with unemployment at 7.5% the Fed didn't see the need to print money. The Fed printed because the market fell - every time the market fell, the Fed re-started printing.
    May 21 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magic Is Broken [View article]
    This has nothing it with being Samsung ... it could be any other brand.
    May 21 07:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magic Is Broken [View article]
    AAPL is not going to live or die by the success of those stores.
    May 21 07:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magic Is Broken [View article]
    The point is not for it to be broken for everybody ...
    May 21 07:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon - The Mystifying Estimates For The Quarter Just Ahead [View article]
    Gary, the short thesis on AMZN was predicated on what was going to happen to AMZN's earnings, not on its current earnings. What happened to AMZN's earnings was that they fell quite a bit (to zero, actually), over the last 2.5 years. The market did NOT expect that to happen.

    AMZN the stock went up because the Fed printed and printed some more. In a normal, un-manipulated, market, AMZN would have gone down.
    May 21 07:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Steel Price Under Tremendous Pressure In Europe [View article]
    At this point, stay away - I think it will be similar to dry bulk. Shorting now is too late.

    The overall market is being driven by the Fed, which at this point inflates only assets.
    May 21 06:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon - The Mystifying Estimates For The Quarter Just Ahead [View article]
    lildimsum, this last year turned out like it did because the Fed made it so. You're seeing what happened, not necessarily what could have happened or the odds associated with each outcome.

    A good example would be a lottery. If you won the lottery, certainly you could say "it was the right decision to play", yet the odds and expected value of the lottery could have been awful at inception, making it the wrong rational choice.
    May 20 08:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Steel Price Under Tremendous Pressure In Europe [View article]
    Hi XRTrader, thing is, this is not the first time I warned about steel. This is from January 20 2012: http://seekingalpha.co...

    Back then MT was at an adjusted $19.81.
    May 20 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magic Is Broken [View article]
    wiesje, I've said countless times that the Fed can change everything - the "best bull market ever" is artificial, driven by Fed buying.
    May 20 05:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Probable Origin Of The Anadarko Singularity [View article]
    Agree, though it doesn't look like a fat finger, it might have been some kind of bot going rogue.

    Though this dynamic, even if it didn't happen, is bound to happen in the future. It is similar to the "portfolio insurance" debacle of 1987 where everyone though there would always be a market to sell into.
    May 20 02:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Probable Origin Of The Anadarko Singularity [View article]
    I think the FED has announced something similar already :-)
    May 20 01:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magic Is Broken [View article]
    The point is not about it being a Samsung, or even about it being a better phone.
    May 20 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magic Is Broken [View article]
    I've handled it myself - and I think the same as you, that the iPhone feels better.

    But the problem is that there seemingly is a lot of people who think otherwise, perhaps due to the larger screen (I was impressed with the screen on the Sony Experia Z playing a movie). That's the point - a phone at a similar price selling nearly as much means that there are other factors beyong Apple's quality/brand/ecosystem that are showing themselves to be important enough to turn people's preferences. Or else, at the same price the iPhone would sell massively more, like it had done up until now.
    May 20 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Probable Origin Of The Anadarko Singularity [View article]
    Yes, that's a problem.
    May 20 12:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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