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Paulo Santos

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  • What The Bears Don't Get About Amazon [View article]
    The promotion in the last couple of weeks has been relentless.
    Oct 20 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Kindle Fire Is Not Selling Well [View article]
    The old HD is selling better and the margin is nearly certain to be lower in that one at $139.
    Oct 20 09:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Kindle Fire Is Not Selling Well [View article]
    I say so because the stock is promoted on denial and untruths. The analysts saying that next year earnings will show up are the same that were wrong regarding earnings for the last 3 years - they have no clue whether earnings will show up or not. But they promote it anyway.
    Oct 20 08:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Kindle Fire Is Not Selling Well [View article]
    GOOG trades at 20 times 2014 earnings. If AMZN traded the same way, it would be at $58. And that's on 2014 estimates that are very likely to come down for AMZN.
    Oct 19 09:58 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cashin sees bubble in cloud/mobile tech names [View news story]
    Well, most in terms of number is certainly correct, but in terms of market value/capitalization, I doubt it, even though there was some really crazy stuff going on.

    And indeed, I don't think there was a single instance of a profitless company trading over $100 billion in market capitalization back then. And we have one like that now.
    Oct 19 09:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Bears Don't Get About Amazon [View article]
    It's especially more cost effective in the instances where shipping the stuff for free is uneconomic ... but that's hardly a reason to like the business.
    Oct 19 09:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cashin sees bubble in cloud/mobile tech names [View news story]
    That's not correct. In 2000 you had profitable companies like MSFT or CSCO also participating in the bubble.
    Oct 19 08:36 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cashin sees bubble in cloud/mobile tech names [View news story]
    Wow that really sounds like 2000.

    Were you around then?
    Oct 19 08:35 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Bears Don't Get About Amazon [View article]
    AMZN's GMV would not be what it is, if you just counted profitable GMV.
    Oct 19 08:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cashin sees bubble in cloud/mobile tech names [View news story]
    The bubble is not in the S&P...
    Oct 19 07:48 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Kindle Fire Is Not Selling Well [View article]
    And in terms of revenue growth the difference is about to fall to just 4%...
    Oct 19 05:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Kindle Fire Is Not Selling Well [View article]
    And 1/1000th the earnings, of course.
    Oct 19 05:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Kindle Fire Is Not Selling Well [View article]
    Tvaddic, if the market won't upgrade the Kindles, then that's new because in 2011 and 2012 the market made the new models shoot up to the top of the charts instantly.
    Oct 19 05:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Kindle Fire Is Not Selling Well [View article]
    RussellL, would you prefer that the facts stated in the article would not see the light of day, is it?
    Oct 19 05:28 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Kindle Fire Is Not Selling Well [View article]
    An optimistic view of AMZN's revenues would put its revenues at around $178 billion out in 2020. However, even if AMZN can be more profitable than it is now, the most I see it producing in terms of profits is $4-$5 per share. There are many trends working against AMZN's profitability.

    Obviously things can change, but that doesn't seem incredibly likely with the businesses AMZN is exploring now and the way it's spreading itself so thin.

    Also, it wouldn't be surprising if AMZN went through a phase of distress in the next few years, where it would shed lots of unprofitable business and keep the profitable operations. If that were to happen it could probably exceed the $4-$5 per share handily, but it would attain a smaller total size. However, phases of distress are not compatible with huge premiums to market.

    Not long ago, EBAY fell all the way to a P/E of 10-12. And guess what, Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock then.
    Oct 19 02:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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