Seeking Alpha

Paulo Santos

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Paulo Santos' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • ChannelAdvisor Data Springs Large Negative Surprise For Amazon.com [View article]
    One should also take into account that really successful companies usually have some kind of profitable macro which they replicate more and more to make for huge profits. AMZN has no such macro, it's being bought on the notion that now it gets volume and later it gets profits. That's not how a Wal-Mart, Apple, Microsoft, IBM or mostly any other behemoth went about it. They were profitable from nearly the start and mostly simply expanded a profitable macro over and over again.
    Jun 12 04:18 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GSV Capital: Large Discount To NAV With Upcoming Catalysts [View article]
    That's clearly a mistake, yes (investing late and at valuations which simply don't allow the VC model to work).
    Jun 12 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ChannelAdvisor Data Springs Large Negative Surprise For Amazon.com [View article]
    Gary, succeed as in "make significant amounts of profit". The stock did go up without making significant amounts of profit, that's one reason why we say it's a short. The stock is not going to stay here forever without making money, even you know it. No other stock has and AMZN won't be the first.
    Jun 12 04:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ChannelAdvisor Data Springs Large Negative Surprise For Amazon.com [View article]
    I agree, both on the scarcity of growth stocks, and on estimates having been cut so far that they're easy to beat.

    But the large investors aren't buying AMZN. They're buying a model, an idealized AMZN that doesn't exist. And at some point reality will set in. No company can expand in 50 different directions and not be a leader in almost any of them and have nearly no core profitability and succeed at the same time.
    Jun 12 03:12 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ChannelAdvisor Data Springs Large Negative Surprise For Amazon.com [View article]
    No, ChannelAdvisor or even AMZN's 3P sales are just a very small subset of the entire retail space.
    Jun 12 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The ARM Singularity [View article]
    The only existing benchmarks are Intel's, and the competitors aren't identified but are expected to include A15. Also, if you take INTC's claims for Silvermont performance/consumption versus Clover Trail, and Clover Trail's performance versus A15, you reach the same conclusion.
    Jun 12 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disagreeing On Marvell's Prospects [View article]
    I'm also negative on QCOM. And after the end of the year, all of these companies will get serious competition from INTC. I believe the entire ARM-based market is going to shrink from 2014 onwards.
    Jun 12 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ChannelAdvisor Data Springs Large Negative Surprise For Amazon.com [View article]
    wadeyr, with the perfusion of online marketplaces they might have a market, but I'd still have to study the business model to see if it can make money. Online marketplaces already take their pound of flesh, except for Alibaba, so it might be hard even if it's a useful service.
    Jun 12 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GSV Capital: Large Discount To NAV With Upcoming Catalysts [View article]
    I don't put money into all my ideas ... "it depends". There's a threshold for me.
    Jun 12 10:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Investment Themes - Global Warming, Renewables And The Education Bubble [View article]
    Kyle, the point about Global Warming is not really whether it's true or not - it's more about how politicians react to it.

    Plus a cold winter, a cold summer, etc, a few observations don't prove things one way or the other (though this summer we've been joking that the cold is "due to global warming").
    Jun 12 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GSV Capital: Large Discount To NAV With Upcoming Catalysts [View article]
    We're much closer to a liquidity event right now, though ... so the maximum discount is not as relevant as that closeness (if the market doesn't keep falling, that is, which would put away the liquidity events).
    Jun 12 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GSV Capital: Large Discount To NAV With Upcoming Catalysts [View article]
    I didn't calculate it, but you can get the nearest 10-Q and divide the share price by the reported NAV on that 10-Q...
    Jun 12 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exploring Nvidia Further [View article]
    13feb, the main gist of this is not integrated graphics impacting any specific SKU NVDA has now, but the dynamics itself of integrating the GPU into the CPU - over time it WILL impact discrete GPUs and relegate them to niche status.

    Jun 12 07:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 More Investing Themes To Consider [View article]
    The problem is that the theme is not really global warming - it's the political reaction to global warming. And that isn't easily avoided even by scientific debate.
    Jun 11 09:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GSV Capital: Large Discount To NAV With Upcoming Catalysts [View article]
    At one point it was even at a premium, this is near the largest it's ever been, except for October 2012 or so. It crashed with facebook.
    Jun 11 07:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
17,882 Comments
24,360 Likes