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Paulo Santos  

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  • Part Of Amazon.com's Core Is Dying [View article]
    1) AWS GM is not 90% even though AMZN posts it at 100%;
    2) AWS does not have $20 billion in revenues like you just calc'ed;
    3) Your sum of the parts flies in the face of the fact that the overall thing is not profitable. But yes, there ought to be parts which are profitable - but then again, that necessarily means there are parts producing deep losses.
    Oct 25, 2014. 12:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Amazon Earnings Q3 2014 [View article]
    There was not much in the way of arbitrary investment - most of what was invested, was needed to keep up with the physical growth. That's except for a few blunders like the Fire Phone or AMZN Fresh, of course.

    There are ways to make AMZN more profitable, but they involve pruning a lot of businesses and reducing the size of the thing.
    Oct 25, 2014. 12:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Latest Sears Short Squeeze Flies In The Face Of Logic [View article]
    No - if SHLD goes BK, then the bonds should recover a given % of their value, and only if they recover 100% of par, will there be anything left for the stock.
    Oct 25, 2014. 12:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Part Of Amazon.com's Core Is Dying [View article]
    Ok, bobelouis, but he LOOKS older, and besides, in 20 years he'll be 73. You need to look ahead.
    Oct 25, 2014. 11:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Part Of Amazon.com's Core Is Dying [View article]
    The NA segment includes more of the good businesses (AWS until recently, 3P, Kindle eReader/eBooks) and AMZN is less competitive internationally - namely in places like China or even India. Also the NA segment is (was, in many places) favored by not collecting sales taxes, something which is harder internationally (though AMZN sometimes tries to replicate it with VAT in Europe).

    Over the long term perhaps AMZN can operate internationally at a positive margin. It won't be that easy, it might require pruning, for instance, it might require quitting in China.
    Oct 25, 2014. 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Part Of Amazon.com's Core Is Dying [View article]
    You need to lay off the stuff you're smoking as it's making you see things like 90% margins and 10% margins dropping to the bottom line, which are akin to green pigs flying overhead.

    That's the best way I can put it, really.
    Oct 25, 2014. 07:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Part Of Amazon.com's Core Is Dying [View article]
    Jack, they'll use it - look at the spread between current assets and current liabilities. It's increasing and nearing $2 billion already. Not only will AMZN use those $2 billion, but it will ask for $2 billion more down the road.
    Oct 25, 2014. 07:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Latest Sears Short Squeeze Flies In The Face Of Logic [View article]
    JJTalkative - those spin-offs are a further reason to believe the stock rally makes no sense, because the stock TODAY does not include those spin-offs from the past. It's a much weaker company, not only because it's going down the tubes, but also because it spun off several interesting subsidiaries!
    Oct 25, 2014. 07:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Latest Sears Short Squeeze Flies In The Face Of Logic [View article]
    Whatever happens, this will be Lampert's Lightsquared. There is almost no chance SHLD comes back from its present position of burning $1 billion per year. The bonds say as much in spite of the stock euphoria. Keep in mind that the bonds trade the way they do even in the midst of the largest high yield bubble in history.

    Each common share will be worthless. And much of the real estate has been revalued higher, too - that's a clear myth, you just have to read the 2005 10-K.
    Oct 25, 2014. 07:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Amazon Earnings Q3 2014 [View article]
    There is very little in the way of "economies of scale" for AMZN's business. A fulfillment center fills up and that's it, no more economies. Everything from thereon is variable - picking, packing, paying, shipping ...

    Furthermore, some of the variable components get worse as the scale gets larger. Picking and packing, for instance, are much harder to do with 1 million SKUs than with 100 (there's operational research on this).

    And some other components have seen a very consistent upward trend in cost - shipping - as UPS and FDX increase prices every year.
    Oct 25, 2014. 07:44 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Amazon Earnings Q3 2014 [View article]
    Allan, it's even more complex than that because gaming consoles are accounted for as "media" by AMZN. So GoPro cameras truly won't compensate as they're (with a high likelihood) EGM (Electronics and General Merchandise).
    Oct 25, 2014. 07:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Many Subscription Rights Do You Think There Are? [View article]
    At this point most of the shorts have already covered ... now there's just selling pressure, as very few people REALLY want to exercise those rights. As we get close to November 5, those trading the rights will feel a tremendous pressure to get rid of them.

    This is obvious in the sense that initially the rights were trading at a premium to the underlying shares, and that's no longer the case.

    As for the shares and rights we'll have to disagree. If a company had just 1 share and that share was sold short, there would be 2 long positions (the lender and whoever bought it from the short seller) and hence, 2 shares. Obviously formally perhaps that isn't so, but in practice it is - 2 long shares at the same time.
    Oct 25, 2014. 07:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Part Of Amazon.com's Core Is Dying [View article]
    II, the growth rate on media decelerated substantially - and what's more, that growth rate actually overstates the growth due to base effects. I explained this simply enough - Q3 2013 does not have the new generation consoles, Q3 2014 has them. This base effect will be gone in Q4, so media growth is likely to become worse still.
    Oct 24, 2014. 11:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Amazon Earnings Q3 2014 [View article]
    Media growth is going to get worse - the reported growth, low as it was, was actually inflated by base effects (Q3 last year didn't have the new generation gaming consoles and this one had them - this ends in Q4):

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Oct 24, 2014. 09:46 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stone: Declining stock grant values could curb Amazon's spending [View news story]
    AMZN pays with stock, not stock options.
    Oct 24, 2014. 06:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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