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Paulo Santos  

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  • What Does Tesla Have In Common With Commodore International? [View article]
    That's basically it - others are coming and there's no reason they can't come to market and neither is there any reason to believe TSLA's solution will somehow be sustainably superior.
    Dec 3, 2014. 02:49 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does Tesla Have In Common With Commodore International? [View article]
    As a starter:
    * Having production capacity is not a barrier to entry or sustainable advantage;
    * Having lower costs because of scale is not a sustainable advantage if the scale can be reasonably replicated;
    * Having a supercharger network is not a sustainable advantage if others can replicate it.

    And so on and so forth, we've seen this take place in thousands of industries over time - it's basic economics.

    You want sustainable advantages? Seek them in brands, intangibles, lower costs because of something others can't replicate (like you mining iron ore in Australia is an advantage for those doing it, versus those doing it in CHina), patents, natural monopolies, network effects, etc.
    Dec 3, 2014. 02:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does Tesla Have In Common With Commodore International? [View article]
    But you're being unrealistic, since you have no reason to believe there's any barrier to building the exact same thing very quickly.

    That would be like saying the iPhone had an advantage because of it having a capacitive touchscreen and the competitors at the time not having those screens. So what? Was there anything keeping them from having the exact same screens? No, there wasn't.

    That's the question you need to answer to know if there are barriers to entry: It there anything keeping competitors from having a similar thing?
    Dec 3, 2014. 02:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monitise: Is There Value? [View article]
    First, monetise didn't hit its growth targets.

    Second, removing acquisitions just gives us the real organic growth Monetise is achieving. And it isn't great.

    I myself stated that if there's to be hope, then those hoping better hope to see highly increased registered user growth and a turn in the ARPU trend.
    Dec 3, 2014. 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does Tesla Have In Common With Commodore International? [View article]
    The battery tech is not Tesla's, and battery manufacturing capacity is not a barrier to entry - any entrant will make sure the batteries for the cars exist, and making a battery factory doesn't take longer than making a semiconductor factory (that's 24 months, give or take).

    Saying the capacity to make anything fungible where returns are to be had is a barrier to entry makes no sense per se.
    Dec 3, 2014. 02:32 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does Tesla Have In Common With Commodore International? [View article]
    It's open and shut - if BMW needed those chargers up in 6 months, they'd be up in 6 months and this is entirely obvious - there is nothing (not technology, not cost, not lack of places to put them, etc) keeping BMW or anyone else from doing the same.

    You need to take this logic to everything, even a giant iron ore mine. If the returns are there and there are no barriers to entry or sustainable advantages, the investments get made and competition comes.
    Dec 3, 2014. 02:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • At The Present Levels, I Am Neutral On Iron Ore [View article]
    I don't think it's possible, and CLF might even have risk going forward as it's far from being a low cost producer.
    Dec 3, 2014. 02:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does Tesla Have In Common With Commodore International? [View article]
    An advantage is something which cannot be replicated easily, cheaply (cheaply here is relative, in an industry used to spend billions, a few billions can be cheap) and quickly. The supercharger is not an advantage, it can be replicated easily, cheaply and quickly.
    Dec 3, 2014. 02:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does Tesla Have In Common With Commodore International? [View article]
    It's not a bit bizarre if you understand the angle, which can be applied to many other cases: an early leader in a high growth market which achieves great market share and large profitability STILL doesn't have success guaranteed, if there are no barriers to entry and no sustainable advantages.

    TSLA is an early leader in a growth market (EVs), it has not achieved large profitability, and there are no barriers to entry and neither does TSLA carry any sustainable advantages. Success is not guaranteed. But TSLA trades like it is.
    Dec 3, 2014. 02:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does Tesla Have In Common With Commodore International? [View article]
    The time and money necessary to replicate a supercharger network is tiny versus the kind of investments the possible competitors are used to make. I'd expect the time to be under 6 months and the money to be completely irrelevant.

    I dismiss it so quickly precisely because of that: anyone can do something similar, and they can do it FAST. So it's not a barrier to entry or a sustainable advantage.
    Dec 3, 2014. 02:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monitise: Is There Value? [View article]
    This company is not seeing extreme growth, though. If you exclude the acquisitions it grew at just 16.2% yoy, that's hardly extreme.
    Dec 3, 2014. 02:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does Tesla Have In Common With Commodore International? [View article]
    That might happen - but we really have to find it.
    Dec 3, 2014. 02:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does Tesla Have In Common With Commodore International? [View article]
    It's a market leader in EVs, which is supposed to be a growth industry with marked advantages over ICEs.
    Dec 3, 2014. 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does Tesla Have In Common With Commodore International? [View article]
    Tesla initially had a huge market share in EVs as well. And still has, because true competition has not arrived yet.
    Dec 3, 2014. 02:01 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does Tesla Have In Common With Commodore International? [View article]
    Gordon, we could indeed have compared Tesla to tens of different early market leaders in huge growth industries. The conclusion would be the same, in the absence of barriers to entry and sustainable advantages, leadership does not guarantee victory.
    Dec 3, 2014. 02:00 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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