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Paulo Santos

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  • The Mix Matters And Explains Most Of The Profit Implosion [View article]
    My first article was this one:

    AMZN was at $217.32 when I wrote it (over the weekend).

    You cannot predict when other people will buy or sell something, you can just predict what might make them buy or sell something. I predicted profits would head the wrong way, which in 99% of the cases would be enough for a stock trading at a premium valuation to drop.

    Profits headed the wrong way - all the way down to losses. But people still bought the stock, so it went up, also aided by the monetary orgy. This just meant that the stock now trades at a MUCH larger premium. Indeed, at the time the thing traded at 169 times estimated 2011 earnings, now it trades at 337 times estimated 2013 earnings.
    Aug 23 04:24 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "It's almost biblical," says Apollo Global (APO) CEO Leon Black. "There is a time to reap and there's a time to sow ... We are harvesting." The P-E kingpin says Apollo has unloaded about $13B in assets over the past 15 months. "The financing market is as good as we have ever seen it. It's back to 2007 levels. There is no institutional memory ... We're selling everything that's not nailed down." [View news story]
    Maybe that's cause the market is a fraud since the fall of 2009? eheh. The FED really distorted everything.
    May 4 08:49 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Timing The Next Move In Coal [View article]
    Look, if there's a thing I hate, it is people lying about what I said or didn't say. And I did NOT say any of those things. Indeed, I've been quite right about the coal stocks since quite a while ago. I also always traded them from the long side.

    As for natural gas, I have been even MORE right about it. Called the bottom in 2012 to within 1 day, called several tops and bottoms since then, SEVERAL of them within 1 day as well,including the latest bottom (which you can confirm by following the first link in the article).

    Again, what you said was untrue.
    Mar 21 03:11 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Feels Like The Dotcom Craze All Over Again [View article]
    Tech overall was more inflated, but this time you can't have the Nasdaq/NDX going to the same level, because one of the sources of liquidity - AAPL - is the main component in Nasdaq/NDX !!! Its weight was almost 20% of the NDX at the top, and it has fallen 37% since then !!

    At this point it's not as widespread as during 2000, but on the other hand the largest caps such as CSCO and MSFT didn't get as expensive in 2000 as AMZN is now, and they had rising earnings to boot.
    Jan 25 04:23 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Is Definitely Broken With The Market [View article]
    You are describing your own version of the "greater fool" theory. There are people willing to pay more for it. Yet there are or it wouldn't be here, but it's still irrational, it's still a bubble. One still needs to call it out.

    What is really worse is that there are lots of people that don't even know AMZN's earnings have been imploding and are now zero.
    Jan 14 04:56 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Is Definitely Broken With The Market [View article]
    Harry, it's not about the valuation. Read the article again.

    It's about AMZN having risen almost as much as AAPL if counted from the iPhone introduction that made Apple the most profitable company on earth while AMZN saw its earnings go to zero from 5 years ago !!!
    Jan 14 04:39 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bob Wenzel holds no punches in a speech this week to the NY Fed: "The noose is tightening on your organization, vast amounts of money printing are now required to keep your manipulated economy afloat. It will ultimately result in huge price inflation, or, if you stop printing, another massive economic crash will occur. There is no other way out."  [View news story]
    You need to produce something for which there is demand at some level.
    Apr 28 06:19 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Have March Numbers For Tesla And A Prediction For The First Quarter [View article]
    You don't need to read those articles if you don't care about the numbers, yes.
    Apr 3 11:13 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day Of Amazon Is Here [View article]
    EBITDA is misleading because depreciation is being inflated by things such as capitalized software costs and content costs, which then get taken away in capex. These two effects add to more than $1 billion per year, or more than 1/4 of AMZN's EBITDA.
    Jan 20 12:50 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Washington impasse continues [View news story]
    What's the point of bickering about spending if then both sides agree to pay 100% retroactive wages for work not rendered?

    That basically shows it's all a joke. The shutdown was supposed to happen as a consequence of not being able to spend more. By promising retroactive wages they're saying "oh yes we'll spend more".
    Oct 6 05:34 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Insane Apple Advantage [View article]
    I don't see high resale value as ever being a problem. The type of customer is different - same as with used autos. It just shows that the brand is so strong people are ready to pay dearly for it even when used.

    What the resale value ensures, is that every launch has tremendous demand from 2-year upgraders. Same as every new BMW, Lexus, Mercedes ... (but even better, in the sense that the spread between used Apple and used Android is much larger than the spread between those brands and their alternatives).
    Oct 2 07:54 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Reasons Why Will Again Miss Revenue Estimates [View article]
    Gary, do you have anything to comment regarding:
    1) The way ChannelAdvisor implies a revenue miss with an R2 of 0.90;
    2) The way the new Kindle Fire should not be out during September also impacting revenues.

    Or is everything irrelevant for you? Quite extraordinary. You're very lucky that uncle Ben decided those ignoring fundamentals ought to make more money.
    Sep 22 07:17 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Happens When War Strikes? [View article]
    I should probably add "if you're going to panic, panic first".
    Aug 27 01:28 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Largest Move On Rates Bar None [View article]
    RS, AMZN is still ongoing and my calls have been spot on except for the stock price. Markets CAN stay irrational but I called the fundamentals pretty well. Also, while AMZN is ongoing I've had many, many correct calls on coal, natural gas, iron ore, steel, copper, several equities, etc.

    And the risk here is of a different nature. It stems from the leverage applied to a fixed income portfolio. To know whether one wants to hold NLY, one needs to, above all, answer the question "do I want to hold equity on a levered long duration fixed income portfolio?" (though there are several other risks).
    Jul 8 09:28 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magic Is Broken [View article]
    But seemingly there are other people that are choosing these devices as being equal, for they cost the same and are selling at nearly the same rate.

    Not tablets, though.
    May 19 02:07 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment