Seeking Alpha

Paulo Santos

 
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  • Apple No Longer Seems Massively Cheap, Even Ex-Cash [View article]
    Ceteris paribus (keeping everything else constant), an higher EV means the the company is more expensive than a lower EV.

    And DCFs are anything but accurate. You can justify any value with a DCF and its assumptions regarding the future, and indeed, every bubble gets analysts justifying its worth using DCFs (not saying AAPL is a bubble, though, it isn't).
    Oct 13, 2014. 08:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple No Longer Seems Massively Cheap, Even Ex-Cash [View article]
    I've said so myself, Bradmeister:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Thing is, the mobile market seems fickle and changes leaders quite often. Maybe this is different, though.
    Oct 13, 2014. 08:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple No Longer Seems Massively Cheap, Even Ex-Cash [View article]
    A large enterprise value is not a reason to buy - it's a reason to sell, it means the company is fully valued. This in comparison to EBITDA, FCF or some other earnings measure, of course.

    Yes, AMZN is incredibly overvalued - nothing to do with AAPL for sure. I'd buy AAPL at $200 over AMZN at its present quote. Or at $300 for that matter.
    Oct 12, 2014. 06:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple No Longer Seems Massively Cheap, Even Ex-Cash [View article]
    Where I think we diverge, is in your thinking that Android is a commodity and Apple is the real thing. At this point, I believe Android has rough parity in terms of utility (from what I see in the Nexus 5 versus the iPhone 5S I have here at home).

    This seems true at least the the latest Android versions.
    Oct 12, 2014. 06:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple No Longer Seems Massively Cheap, Even Ex-Cash [View article]
    My own assumption regarding the Apple Watch was that even if it sells as much as the WHOLE of the Swatch Group, even then it won't make much of a difference.

    Then, I also said it won't sell 45 million units in the first year, either.

    Plus now that we've seen it, this is even more certain.
    Oct 11, 2014. 06:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple No Longer Seems Massively Cheap, Even Ex-Cash [View article]
    My comments are not so much about the relative valuation, as they are regarding AAPL's situation and its absolute valuation. AAPL is not expensive, but it's not cheap either at 12.6 times earnings ex-cash in a fickle market segment.

    Anyway, most of the other stodgy tech companies are easily more expensive at 15, 16 times earnings with poorer near-term prospects.

    It was an effect of QE. Everything became expensive.
    Oct 11, 2014. 01:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple No Longer Seems Massively Cheap, Even Ex-Cash [View article]
    The dynamics of the mobile market seem to have helped the iPhone versus what would happen in a market without subsidization (as we can see from the iPad). That has probably allowed Apple to retain more pricing power than it would, otherwise.
    Oct 11, 2014. 06:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple No Longer Seems Massively Cheap, Even Ex-Cash [View article]
    The business not drying up is not the same as the business sustaining high ROEs.
    Oct 10, 2014. 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple No Longer Seems Massively Cheap, Even Ex-Cash [View article]
    Yep, the stock does also have the risk of being crowded as it is. Given the reactions.
    Oct 10, 2014. 02:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple No Longer Seems Massively Cheap, Even Ex-Cash [View article]
    I don't recall saying that AAPL would be wiped out by Samsung, ever.

    But do take notice that I also wrote positive AAPL articles. They follow the following pattern: when high and overowned, I have more negative articles. When cheap and hated, I have more of them positive.
    Oct 10, 2014. 10:22 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple No Longer Seems Massively Cheap, Even Ex-Cash [View article]
    Perhaps, but I see the risk and I intrinsically don't like megacapitalizations much - the impossibly high upside is simply not there, while the downside is.
    Oct 10, 2014. 10:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple No Longer Seems Massively Cheap, Even Ex-Cash [View article]
    Not "fail" in the sense you're thinking, though.

    But "fail" in the sense of one generation selling poorly as compared to the previous iterations.
    Oct 10, 2014. 09:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple No Longer Seems Massively Cheap, Even Ex-Cash [View article]
    Dang, and the comments aren't much better, either! I know exactly how you feel!
    Oct 10, 2014. 08:46 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple No Longer Seems Massively Cheap, Even Ex-Cash [View article]
    There's no doubt that Apple is doing terrifically ... right now. At some point, Palm, Nokia, Blackberry, Motorola, etc, were doing terrifically as well.

    The future is not set in stone.
    Oct 10, 2014. 06:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple No Longer Seems Massively Cheap, Even Ex-Cash [View article]
    jpinto, back in the days of the Mac/PC wars, one could probably say the same - that the PCs were not profitable, that they were cheaper, etc.

    But the massive market share ends up being a problem for the company trying to sell expensively and at great margins.

    For now, what this meant is that Android reached parity in terms of apps. But it's not impossible that if the Android market becomes larger in the future (in terms of app revenue), Android might actually surpass iOS in terms of app availability, like it happened with Macs/PCs.
    Oct 10, 2014. 06:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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