The Meteoric Drop Of Invesco's Book Value [View article]
From a technical standpoint, IVR looks very vulnerable. It's rallied to the top of intersecting channels that both point to considerable downside, which would confirm the author's conclusions. I'll post a chart on my instablog.
I have no idea why that would be. Haven't heard of anyone else with the same problem. I assume you tried cleaning cookies and cache? Have you tried joining the site with a google id?
Thanks again for the SA suggestions. I'm going to pass on submitting articles other than the occasional instablog -- which is where I've posted the China article.
The article I submitted 36 hours ago, critical breaking news on IMF's increasingly negative view of China's economy -- I thought it pretty damn important since, ultimately, the entire financial world is pinning its bailout hopes on China.
And, if China, the poster child for economic growth and prosperity, is headed down the same path as US/EUR in 2006/7, most markets are pretty well screwed. As an investor, that's somewhat relevant information.
The reponse: "Thanks for the new article, but we're looking for more directly actionable investment analysis - How does your premise affect US investors? What trading vehicles might be used to capture your premise?"
Tool!? As Curly would say, I resemble that remark.
Thanks for the pointers on SA. I'm still a little lost on the formatting stuff, didn't know about the private messaging for instance. Now that I'm looking for it, I can't seem to figure out what you mean.
BTW, I tried submitting the article you suggested but still haven't heard back (wonder how many people they have sifting through submissions... )
I'm not 100% convinced my blogging is a good use of time/energy. What I'd really value is a small, close-knit dozen or so smart guys who can exchange worthwhile ideas in real time during the day. Dan's site is that way sometimes, but the trolls, thieves and gremlins can sure take their toll.
Getting a big readership is nice for the ego, but it doesn't "pay" in the traditional sense. I guess it's good karma if I help 1,000 people catch a turn, but I sometimes miss something else I would have noticed if I wasn't busy posting. Then there's the goofy and/or argumentative responses that are so off-base as to completely waste your time.
Seems like you've been at this longer than I. Any thoughts along these lines? And, feel free to PM me (and, please explain how!)
Great question. There's probably no bound to the added value to exporters of a lower dollar. Theoretically, not true re the added expense of buying oil. However, we've proven our resolve to keep the oil flowing in other ways (mission accomplished.) OPEC has responded by deepening its relationship with China, but that strategy has its limits given China's slowing growth (see: Too Big to Bail posted this morning.) The best question, though, is re foreign creditors. They hate being paid with cheap dollars, but that's the cost of doing business with a country willing (if increasingly less able) to buy so much of their cheap crap. It might all be moot, anyway, if markets crash so hard that the dollar soars again.
Very interesting point, especially in light of the Greece situation. Their choice isn't all that clear, given the economic and political ramifications austerity would bring. Will they risk riots and depression to bail out bankers and stay on the dole?
Exactly. Gross was right when he said we were the least dirty shirt. The USD is clearly the flight to quality target lately, but only for lack of a better alternative.
The interesting question, as stilldaze points out, is the end game. We have competing pressures as exports are the only area of (relative) economic strength in the US, and a rising dollar kills exports. And, we need a depreciated dollar if we ever hope to pay down any of our massive foreign debt.
Since 2007 the problem has been, and remains, an unmanageable level of debt. What we need is a big, red reset button. Two obvious choices are debasement and/or default.
QE has done a great job of debasement, but how long will OPEC and China go along? No one knows, but at this rate we'll find out.
I can envision the US/EUR and friends (other hopeless debtors) orchestrating a new global currency featuring an exchange rate that, in essence, allows us to default without actually calling it that.
Clicks001: you're absolutely right. When I say BAC is desperate, I mean: (1) they're significantly undercapitalized at a time when they can ill afford it, and (2) their stock reflects a total lack of investor confidence. Tapping the Fed for that same $5 billion would make things much, much worse for them and intensify scrutiny of the TBTF risk that, by most accounts, is greater than in 2007.
The Meteoric Drop Of Invesco's Book Value [View article]
Albertarocks' Technical Discussions Instablog [View instapost]
Albertarocks' Technical Discussions Instablog [View instapost]
Albertarocks' Technical Discussions Instablog [View instapost]
The article I submitted 36 hours ago, critical breaking news on IMF's increasingly negative view of China's economy -- I thought it pretty damn important since, ultimately, the entire financial world is pinning its bailout hopes on China.
And, if China, the poster child for economic growth and prosperity, is headed down the same path as US/EUR in 2006/7, most markets are pretty well screwed. As an investor, that's somewhat relevant information.
The reponse: "Thanks for the new article, but we're looking for more directly actionable investment analysis - How does your premise affect US investors? What trading vehicles might be used to capture your premise?"
Albertarocks' Technical Discussions Instablog [View instapost]
Albertarocks' Technical Discussions Instablog [View instapost]
Thanks for the pointers on SA. I'm still a little lost on the formatting stuff, didn't know about the private messaging for instance. Now that I'm looking for it, I can't seem to figure out what you mean.
BTW, I tried submitting the article you suggested but still haven't heard back (wonder how many people they have sifting through submissions... )
I'm not 100% convinced my blogging is a good use of time/energy. What I'd really value is a small, close-knit dozen or so smart guys who can exchange worthwhile ideas in real time during the day. Dan's site is that way sometimes, but the trolls, thieves and gremlins can sure take their toll.
Getting a big readership is nice for the ego, but it doesn't "pay" in the traditional sense. I guess it's good karma if I help 1,000 people catch a turn, but I sometimes miss something else I would have noticed if I wasn't busy posting. Then there's the goofy and/or argumentative responses that are so off-base as to completely waste your time.
Seems like you've been at this longer than I. Any thoughts along these lines? And, feel free to PM me (and, please explain how!)
The World's Biggest Pawn Shop [View article]
Albertarocks' Technical Discussions Instablog [View instapost]
The World's Biggest Pawn Shop [View article]
The World's Biggest Pawn Shop [View article]
The interesting question, as stilldaze points out, is the end game. We have competing pressures as exports are the only area of (relative) economic strength in the US, and a rising dollar kills exports. And, we need a depreciated dollar if we ever hope to pay down any of our massive foreign debt.
Since 2007 the problem has been, and remains, an unmanageable level of debt. What we need is a big, red reset button. Two obvious choices are debasement and/or default.
QE has done a great job of debasement, but how long will OPEC and China go along? No one knows, but at this rate we'll find out.
I can envision the US/EUR and friends (other hopeless debtors) orchestrating a new global currency featuring an exchange rate that, in essence, allows us to default without actually calling it that.
Buffett's Billions Bail Out BofA [View article]