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Pendulum

 
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  • Ply Gem: Fallen Angel IPO With Upside Potential As Housing Market Recovers [View article]
    Hi David,

    Thanks for your comments and questions.

    Unemployment rate - Yes, if unemployment doesn't decline further, then PGEM would be negatively impacted. However, that is true for so many other companies that I don't consider it a PGEM specific risk. Furthermore, I expect that the jobs situation will continue to improve, slowly. I may be wrong, but that is my operating thesis.

    Downside risk - PGEM has traded down to my downside target already. We will soon find out if I was right that the downside is limited to this level. Of course, I could be wrong.

    Jan 21, 2014. 11:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ply Gem: Fallen Angel IPO With Upside Potential As Housing Market Recovers [View article]
    See my other comments above and below.
    Jan 16, 2014. 11:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ply Gem: Fallen Angel IPO With Upside Potential As Housing Market Recovers [View article]
    Hi contrarian002,

    I don't have any updates about insider selling. Looks like one of the directors exercised some options and sold shares:

    http://bit.ly/19yh1ZT

    Does not seem like a big deal.

    I have no information about David Tepper's position.

    I don't think that there is a need for daily updates. My thesis has not changed since I wrote the article. Obviously, the recent performance and the drop in the stock price are disappointing, but I have not yet seen enough reasons to change my mind. The next big catalyst (aside from earnings) is the spring selling season for the housing industry that starts in mid-February. I will watch that closely.
    Jan 16, 2014. 11:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ply Gem: Fallen Angel IPO With Upside Potential As Housing Market Recovers [View article]
    Hi contrarian002,

    Thanks for your questions.

    1 - I don't think that there is a market share issue for PGEM. However, I am not an expert on the dynamics in the market.
    2 - I am not concerned about the debt load. PGEM is entering the part of the cycle where it should be able to generate good free cash flow and pay down the debt. However, if my assumptions about the housing market are wrong, then the debt could be an issue.
    3 - Yes, if the stock price rises to the IPO level, then some investors may sell (especially if their cost basis is around the current price). However, this does not concern me. I have a multi-year outlook and during that time there will be many investors that sell to lock-in gains.
    4 - PGEM has debt, but I think that they can manage it. There is no way to be sure that they can bounce back, but my thesis is that they will.

    Please let me know if you have additional questions.

    (This is not investment advice and please note the disclaimer above.)
    Jan 16, 2014. 11:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ply Gem: Fallen Angel IPO With Upside Potential As Housing Market Recovers [View article]
    Hi contrarian002,

    Thanks for the questions.

    I have a multi-year outlook on Ply Gem. I am bullish on the rebound in single family housing and see PGEM as a good way to play it. The weak results are a disappointment, but they do not change my outlook.

    My timing on publishing the article was not great, but my thesis is still the same.

    The real test for PGEM and other housing related stocks will come around mid-February when the spring selling season starts. If that is OK, then I expect that PGEM and the rest of the sector will do well in 2014.

    The tender offer is a positive and reducing the interest expense is helpful.

    Despite the fall today, PGEM is still trading above my $13.58 downside target. I plan on buying this weakness.

    If you have more questions, please let me know.

    (This is not investment advice and please note the disclaimer above.)
    Jan 13, 2014. 09:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Apparel: Disappointed, But Still Bullish And Looking Ahead To 2014 [View article]
    Interesting that APP is not going down on bad news. Since October it has been mostly trading in the ~$1.10 - $1.25 range. Lots of bad news over that time, but this range has held. It is a bullish sign when a stock doesn't go down on bad news.

    However, APP is still very risky. Not sure how the $50 million raise will play out and it could drive the stock price lower still. Also, the December comps were disappointing.

    There may be more downside, but the $1.10 - $1.25 range is holding for now.
    Jan 10, 2014. 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kaman: Aerospace Opportunity Driving The Growth [View article]
    Hi Jake,

    Thanks for the comments.
    Jan 8, 2014. 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Federal-Mogul: Carl Icahn At The Wheel And 40% Upside Potential As Europe Rebounds [View article]
    Hi metal27,

    Thanks for the comments. Yes, there may be a split-up at some point that could add value. But, that is not core to my thesis for now. The company first needs to see a turnaround in Europe.
    Jan 6, 2014. 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish On Tumi: Take-Off In 2014 With 30% Upside Potential [View article]
    Hi fastcatazule, thanks for the comments.
    Jan 6, 2014. 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish On Tumi: Take-Off In 2014 With 30% Upside Potential [View article]
    Hi Moon Kil Woong,

    Interesting question. I view Tumi as a growth company and Coach as more of a turnaround company.
    Jan 6, 2014. 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish On Tumi: Take-Off In 2014 With 30% Upside Potential [View article]
    Hi Austin Guy, thanks for the comments.
    Jan 6, 2014. 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish On Tumi: Take-Off In 2014 With 30% Upside Potential [View article]
    Hi,

    Thanks for the comment, but I disagree about the stores. Tumi's products are high-prices items and I don't expect to see the stores packed at all times.
    Jan 6, 2014. 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Regal Beloit: The Bullish Thesis Has Room To Run In 2014 [View article]
    Hi Dutch Trader,

    Great call on AMOT. I need to look at the deal in more detail. Thanks.
    Jan 6, 2014. 03:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kaiser Aluminum: Aerospace Inventory Overhang Update & 2014 Outlook [View article]
    Hi,

    For more about Constellium, please see my recent article here:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 27, 2013. 08:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ply Gem: Fallen Angel IPO With Upside Potential As Housing Market Recovers [View article]
    Hi june1234,

    There are positives and negatives for the housing market. You mentioned a few negatives, but lower unemployment and rising housing prices are positives.
    Dec 26, 2013. 08:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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