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Pendulum

 
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  • Market Update: Can An Extended S&P 500 See Further Gains? [View article]
    Hi Ted,

    Thanks for the comments.

    I agree that the China story is an interesting one. However, I am not sure that it is a negative. A lot of pessimism has been built into the China story over the last few years.

    They are going through a well telegraphed transition and I wouldn't bet against their ability to execute. If they are successful in boosting internal consumption, then they will buy all the stuff they are making (and the rest of the world is making).

    There is a lot of talk about the great performance of the consumer staples stocks recently. However, I think the potential contribution from China is being overlooked as a catalyst for these stocks.
    May 1 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Update: Can An Extended S&P 500 See Further Gains? [View article]
    Hi Ted,

    Thanks for your comments.

    My impression is that many investors have money on the sidelines, but it is impossible to prove it. I like the expression "don't leave me behind phase". We are probably closer to the beginning of that phase than the end.

    There are many negative catalysts on the horizon. The four main topics in my article: jobs, Federal Reserve, Europe and S&P 500 earnings could all be negative catalysts and contain many risks. However, I don't see them as presenting any immediate catalysts for the downside. The market can always sell off (or move up) without any catalyst, but I don't think that we will get a big risk-off correction like the last few summers without a catalyst. An overbought market can always correct over time too.

    Of the risks on the horizon, the biggest is the Fed. I expect QE to continue until, at least, the end of the year, but the end of QE could be a catalyst for a big sell off.

    The reason that I write about these four topics every week (as well as more detailed articles about S&P 500 valuation/earnings and Europe) is because I consider them potential risks.

    As I explained in my bio (and in several articles) I use stops to help protect my downside. I am not married to the bullish thesis and have no problem reducing my exposure if warranted. I actually did this a few weeks ago and then quickly got back into the market (I wrote about this in a couple of articles).

    It is an interesting period for investors. I may be wrong and it will be fun to watch how things play out this summer.
    Apr 30 08:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Update: Can An Extended S&P 500 See Further Gains? [View article]
    Hi m@ximus,

    Thanks for the comments. I have been bullish on the S&P 500 for a while. However, at some point a correction will come. The size will depend, in part, on how much the S&P 500 goes up before correcting. It may overshoot on the upside and the downside.
    Apr 30 05:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Alcoa's Bounce Sustainable With Aluminum Price Headwinds And S&P's Revised Outlook? [View article]
    Hi Jean, thanks for the comments. Agree about aluminum not going out of style. Good luck!
    Apr 30 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Q1 Earnings Seem Positive: Is It Enough For More Gains? [View article]
    Hi Old Trader,

    Thanks for the comments. Agree that it would be nice to see better revenue.

    In the tech space, revenues are weak because of fiscal problems and a weak Europe. These seem to be mostly cyclical factors and will, hopefully come back.

    Metals/miners have lots of problems on the top line for obvious reasons.

    However, the rest of the market does not have much of an excuse. Seems like analysts are overestimating the revenue story and underestimating the productivity story that still has some room to run.

    Also, it is amazing to see how buybacks are helping so many companies with their earnings. IBM's results disappointed, but overall IBM is a huge buyback story (note: long IBM). However, this seems like a reason to be bullish, not bearish. Buybacks can smooth over results for many companies until demand picks up.
    Apr 30 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Q1 Earnings Seem Positive: Is It Enough For More Gains? [View article]
    Hi rickraff,

    Thanks for the comments. I like the luxury segment too. I recently wrote about Tumi, which is luxury, and some other retail stocks:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    I have positions in $TUMI, $SHOO and $UA.
    Apr 30 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Q1 Earnings Seem Positive: Is It Enough For More Gains? [View article]
    Hi Lou,

    It is not downloadable from a website, but feel free to contact me to discuss further.
    Apr 30 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECB Decision On Interest Rates And The Impact On The Euro [View article]
    Hi, thanks for the comments. I am long SAN too. It will be interesting to watch this week with the ECB meeting. Good luck!
    Apr 30 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Alcoa's Bounce Sustainable With Aluminum Price Headwinds And S&P's Revised Outlook? [View article]
    Hi Sethmcs,

    Thanks for the comments. Agree that China could be a good indicator for these stocks. FXI ETF may be rebounding, which could be good for metals/mining stocks. Good luck!
    Apr 30 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Q1 Earnings Seem Positive: Is It Enough For More Gains? [View article]
    Hi Minor, thank you.
    Apr 28 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Q1 Earnings Seem Positive: Is It Enough For More Gains? [View article]
    Hi TaiPan, thank you.
    Apr 28 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe Is Calm: The ECB's Next Move And Impact On The Euro [View article]
    Good article in the WSJ: Inside Merkel's Bet on the Euro's Future

    http://on.wsj.com/YR2TQY

    Another article on the euro and European assets coming up this weekend.
    Apr 24 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish On Financials: Is The Big Bank Pullback Done? [View article]
    Hi Tom,

    Thanks for the comments. I am long BAC too. Good luck!
    Apr 23 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe Is Calm: The ECB's Next Move And Impact On The Euro [View article]
    Update: Finally bought SAN yesterday. May purchase more.
    Apr 23 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500's P/E Down To 16.1x: A Tale Of Two Markets [View article]
    Hi Illuminati Investments,

    Thanks for the feedback. I don't have the info about PEGs, but will think about it.

    It would be more relevant to look at forward P/Es compared to forward earnings and I don't have the forward P/E multiples.

    A few weeks ago I wrote about the high PEGs for the consumer staples companies. Their P/E ratios are much higher than the market, but I don't think their long term earnings growth rate is half as high as their P/Es.
    Apr 22 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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