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  • Ply Gem: Fallen Angel IPO With Upside Potential As Housing Market Recovers [View article]
    Hi Bill,

    Thanks for your comments.

    In the article I assume that the housing industry returns to 1.0-1.1 million single family housing starts. This is not the peak level of the 2007 housing boom. Instead it is the multi-decade average.
    Dec 25, 2013. 05:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annie's: Analyzing The Investment Opportunities After Guidance Cut Drove Stock Lower [View article]
    Hi packur,

    Thanks for the comment.
    Dec 25, 2013. 07:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ply Gem: Fallen Angel IPO With Upside Potential As Housing Market Recovers [View article]
    Hi GrowthGeek,

    Thanks for the feedback.
    Dec 24, 2013. 05:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ply Gem: Fallen Angel IPO With Upside Potential As Housing Market Recovers [View article]
    Hi TFCAB,

    Thanks for the comment.
    Dec 24, 2013. 01:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Apparel: Disappointed, But Still Bullish And Looking Ahead To 2014 [View article]
    Hi Irishtraveler,

    I am disappointed. Better execution would have avoided it. However, it is not a total surprise given the balance sheet dynamics I mentioned above and the recent debt deal at 18/20% interest rates.

    I am interested to see the pricing and investors. I am interested in buying more on weakness.
    Dec 15, 2013. 07:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Apparel: Disappointed, But Still Bullish And Looking Ahead To 2014 [View article]
    Hi amw1987,

    Thanks for the comments.

    Yes, the offering will be highly dilutive. It will be interesting to see the pricing and who the investors are. I considered this a risk, but obviously disappointed that it came to this.

    I was concerned about the increasing risks because of the balance sheet situation, but held my position after the Lion deal. I may buy more following the offering.

    Not much in the S-3. Would love to get more info from management.

    Regarding JOEZ, I need to look at it more closely to comment.
    Dec 15, 2013. 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Apparel: Disappointed, But Still Bullish And Looking Ahead To 2014 [View article]
    Hi amw1987,

    Thanks for your comment. Why do you think that $JOEZ has a better asymmetric risk/reward than $APP?
    Dec 13, 2013. 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Apparel: Disappointed, But Still Bullish And Looking Ahead To 2014 [View article]
    Hi Delta_Neutral,

    Please see my original article about American Apparel for my high-level revenue estimates.
    Dec 12, 2013. 12:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Take-Aways From A Fireside Chat With Twitter's CEO [View article]
    Hi manicdvln, thanks for the feedback.
    Dec 11, 2013. 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Apparel: Disappointed, But Still Bullish And Looking Ahead To 2014 [View article]
    Hi MTP,

    Thanks for the comments. I agree that there is risk of dilution and/or raising additional debt at high interest rates. In the article I mentioned that these risks have increased over the last few months. I am not pleased about the cash/debt situation and it represents and ongoing risk.

    About the downside, I think that the risk of dilution is greater than the risk of bankruptcy. Don't forget that Lion Capital, a PE firm, owns a large stake. I believe that Lion, or another PE fund, would be interested in recapitalizing the company through an equity deal before the company goes bankrupt. This is not necessarily comforting to the shareholders since a PE deal could be very dilutive to the existing shareholders. This is a big risk and any shareholder should consider it fully.

    It will be interesting to see the cash position coming out of Q4. Q4 is the biggest cash generating quarter for the company, so hopefully the cash position will be better coming out of 2013.

    Also, please note that CapEx may be lower in 2014. The CapEx for the new distribution center should not repeat. The company came in over budget on CapEx in 2013, which is another negative. Also, the interest going forward should be lower than in the LTM period.

    There is no doubt that American Apparel is extremely risky. Although I am bullish, it is very important to recognize the risks. This is a messy turnaround, but I think there is upside if it works out.
    Dec 11, 2013. 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Apparel: Disappointed, But Still Bullish And Looking Ahead To 2014 [View article]
    Glad you enjoyed it.
    Dec 10, 2013. 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa's Stock Price Diverging From Aluminum Prices: Is It Sustainable? [View article]
    Thank you.
    Dec 2, 2013. 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Urban Outfitters: A Bright Spot In Retail, Score One For The Hipsters [View article]
    According to "GOLDMAN SACHS AND TEEN VOGUE: Here Are The 50 Brands That Young Women Love Most" Urban Outfitters is #8 and Free People is #35. Good showing for URBN. Here is the link:

    http://read.bi/1838l9K
    Sep 25, 2013. 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Icahn's Sale Of Hain Celestial: Is It The End, Or The Start Of A New Chapter? [View article]
    Hi villainx,

    No problem. Thanks for the comments.

    I understand your deliberation. I held shares, but sold too soon. I would like to get back in the stock, but I don't want to chase it.
    Sep 9, 2013. 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Icahn's Sale Of Hain Celestial: Is It The End, Or The Start Of A New Chapter? [View article]
    Hi villainx,

    Sometimes I write about stocks that I own that I believe have more upside potential. However, I also write about companies that are on my watchlist. That is the case with Hain. My best investments are often companies that I watch for a while before purchasing. I believe in doing the homework in advance.

    Please note that my articles are not recommendations or investment advice.

    Thanks for the interest.
    Sep 9, 2013. 02:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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