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  • S&P 500's P/E Multiple Ending Q1 At 3-Year High [View article]
    Hi JCATRI,

    Good point. We are at a different part of the rebound from the 2008/2009 crisis. The "easy" earnings growth has happened already and it is becoming more challenging. Still, I don't think earnings growth is done.

    Interestingly, I don't think that the sales and earnings hurdles seem high for the top 100 S&P 500 companies. I wrote about this last week here: http://seekingalpha.co...

    What do you think?
    Mar 25 08:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500's P/E Multiple Ending Q1 At 3-Year High [View article]
    Hi WACG,

    That is a good question. The data from Yahoo that I used in this article are forward EPS estimates and forward EPS estimates are guesses anyway.

    For analysis like this I rely on Yahoo Finance, since what I care about most is how the market is trading in relation to the numbers and changes in the numbers over time.

    If I am looking at a specific company, it is important to dive into the financial statements directly and not rely on Yahoo Finance or any other service provider. It all depends on the purpose of the analysis.

    If you have ideas about other sources that have better data than Yahoo Finance, please let me know.
    Mar 25 08:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500's P/E Multiple Ending Q1 At 3-Year High [View article]
    Hi bgold1955,

    Thanks!
    Mar 25 07:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Rallies On Upgrade But 'Niche Midrange' Thesis Questionable [View article]
    $BBRY has given up the Morgan Stanley gains very quickly. On Friday it traded down on news from the WSJ about a soft US launch of new phone. Seeking Alpha just reported this as well:

    7:39 AM BlackBerry slides another 6.2% premarket, with Goldman cutting to Hold amid the soft AT&T launch. Citigroup reiterates its $6 price target, saying internal checks show sales of the Z10 have dramatically slowed and carriers have shifted promotions to other products. "Shockingly low support by AT&T with extremely limited signage ... most AT&T employees (have) not even been trained on the device.
    Mar 25 07:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500's P/E Multiple Ending Q1 At 3-Year High [View article]
    Hi Diamondraider,

    Thanks. I try to write a weekly analysis of the S&P 500 multiple and changes in analyst estimates on Seeking Alpha. Last week I focused more on the analyst estimates and this week more about the P/E multiples. Stay tuned for more updates in the future.
    Mar 25 07:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Bullish Perspectives For The Euro As Europe Shrugs Off The Cyprus Crisis [View article]
    Hi Dennis954,

    Yes, I agree that there could be psychological contagion. My impression is that there has been a flight of capital out of peripheral countries for a while. After the events of last summer, if you are in Spain/Italy and scared about your local banks and could move your money, you probably did. It will be interesting to watch the reaction of the citizens of Spain/Italy and see what they do with their deposits now.

    Also, it will be interesting to watch if this crisis leads to a more integrated banking union in Europe. If there is psychological contagion regarding the safety of bank deposits, maybe weaker countries would accept more bank oversight in return for better protection.
    Mar 24 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Bullish Perspectives For The Euro As Europe Shrugs Off The Cyprus Crisis [View article]
    Hi Stephen,

    I tried replying to your comments on my article, but I am having technical difficulties with the comment section, so I wanted to send you a direct message.

    Thanks for your comments. Good point about the possibility for the Euro getting weaker for reasons that are not connected to the bond market. I didn't want to imply that the only reasons are central bank policies and the bond markets. The bond markets could be a catalyst for a lower Euro, but it could come from other sources. As I mentioned, the relative growth rates could have an impact. Furthermore, I forgot to mention in the article that the oil and gas revolution in the US should be a driver for USD strength.

    I think that flat price action (and closing on the highs) during a week of talk about bailouts, potential bank runs, etc. is a positive sign. It was the context for the price action that made it seem positive.
    Mar 24 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Oracle's Earnings A Potential Catalyst For P/E Expansion And A Breakout? [View article]
    Hi pro8,

    Clearly, there was no catalyst and no breakout. I am still bullish and think the catalyst and breakout will come. I am a believer in buying great companies when they miss a Q and this could be a good example.

    I am giving Oracle the benefit of the doubt after the 3Q miss that the problem was really sales execution. We will see in the next Q if that is true and if they rebound. The 4Q results should be a good indicator of this.

    I plan to write more about Oracle, but I am still bullish.
    Mar 24 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Bullish Perspectives For The Euro As Europe Shrugs Off The Cyprus Crisis [View article]
    Hi Dennis954,

    Thanks for your comments. I don't think that the Cyprus depositor tax is a precedent for other countries. The European institutions needed a way for Cyprus to come up with a lot of money quickly. It could have required Cyprus to impose a one-time tax on its citizens, but that would have taken time. Instead, it opted to raise the money through bank deposits. At the end of the day, it is the same thing: a one-time tax.

    I don't think that Spain, Italy, Portugal, etc. are in as bad a situation as Cyprus that they would need to enact a one-time tax through the banking system, like Cyprus.

    Also, the tax on bank deposits had the additional benefit of raising money from foreign, mostly Russian, funds. If Cyprus didn't raise funds from the foreign deposits, it would have required its citizens to pay a higher tax, so the bank-tax program actually reduces the amount that actual Cyprus citizens need to pay.

    There are a number of dynamics in Cyprus that make it seem like a one-time deal and not a precedent for the rest of the Euro.
    Mar 24 08:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Oracle's Earnings A Potential Catalyst For P/E Expansion And A Breakout? [View article]
    Hi Hanx,

    Thanks for the comment. What do you think about the SaaS companies that Oracle already acquired - RightNow, Taleo, etc.?
    Mar 21 09:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Rallies On Upgrade But 'Niche Midrange' Thesis Questionable [View article]
    Thanks for the comments and providing a counter-point to my article, which is always useful. Good luck!
    Mar 21 09:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Rallies On Upgrade But 'Niche Midrange' Thesis Questionable [View article]
    The "niche midrange" comment actually came from the Morgan Stanley analyst that drove up the stock with his new research report. My point was that the "bullish" upgrade doesn't seem sound all that bullish. There are still a lot of questions.

    Z10 may be a great product. Time will tell how popular it is. Some investors are buying that stock now on that belief. I am not convinced. Good luck!
    Mar 21 09:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Rallies On Upgrade But 'Niche Midrange' Thesis Questionable [View article]
    Question for the stream:

    Any thoughts on this?

    "ComScore has released a chart showing more clearly than any number of words the changing fortunes of the key players in the US mobile space over the past seven years."

    http://bit.ly/10pB5qa
    Mar 21 09:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Rallies On Upgrade But 'Niche Midrange' Thesis Questionable [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. What is a good source for getting short info in Canada. Also, do you know the historical levels of the short interest for Blackberry in Canada?
    Mar 21 09:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Rallies On Upgrade But 'Niche Midrange' Thesis Questionable [View article]
    What is the source about the 43% figure? Thanks.
    Mar 21 09:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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