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  • BlackBerry Rallies On Upgrade But 'Niche Midrange' Thesis Questionable [View article]
    I think that we can leave that to David Einhorn.
    Mar 21, 2013. 09:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Rallies On Upgrade But 'Niche Midrange' Thesis Questionable [View article]
    The anecdotal evidence refers to the comment stream. The comment stream contains a lot of "I know somebody who bought XYZ phone."

    Obviously the article is only my opinion. I agree that I did not prove a fair market value for Blackberry shares. Nobody can prove a fair market value for a stock, they can only give an opinion. And, the market may or may not trade to such a value, regardless of the quality of the analysis. I don't give a price target for the stock, but I say that I am not convinced by the seemingly bullish arguments of Morgan Stanley that clearly moved the price of the stock and that I am on the sidelines.

    I am not biased about the iPhone. It works for me. I am long Apple, but, as I have said many times, buying a stock and buying a phone are two different things. Furthermore, I am also long Google and see value in Android, so I don't think I am biased. Opinion yes, biased no. But, if you want to continue to think that I am biased, that is OK.

    The article, and my comments, do make a few bullish points and I recognize the bullish arguments.

    Do you recognize that there could be another view to your own?
    Mar 21, 2013. 09:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Rallies On Upgrade But 'Niche Midrange' Thesis Questionable [View article]
    Thanks for the comments, good points. It is interesting that none of the big players can really claim the cool factor now. This could shake things up.
    Mar 21, 2013. 08:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Rallies On Upgrade But 'Niche Midrange' Thesis Questionable [View article]
    Thanks, good points
    Mar 21, 2013. 06:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Rallies On Upgrade But 'Niche Midrange' Thesis Questionable [View article]
    Question for blackberry users:

    I appreciate your comments to the article. There are a lot of Blackberry fans in the comment stream, so I want to use this opportunity to ask you a few questions:

    1. If you switched to Blackberry recently from Apple, Samsung, etc., what was the specific reason?
    2. What role does price play in the decision?

    Again, there is a difference between investing in a stock and picking a phone, but I am curious to hear about this.
    Mar 20, 2013. 10:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Rallies On Upgrade But 'Niche Midrange' Thesis Questionable [View article]
    Thanks for the comments. Good points.
    Mar 20, 2013. 10:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Rallies On Upgrade But 'Niche Midrange' Thesis Questionable [View article]
    I am not sure that "rock solid" products will cut it. Maybe it will, but I am not sure.

    There is so much turnover in the consumer device space that it is always better to be an innovation leader.

    Somebody may come up with a game changer. It may come from Blackberry, Google, Samsung, Apple or a two guys in a garage. I don't think any of these companies can sit back and forget about innovation.
    Mar 20, 2013. 09:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Rallies On Upgrade But 'Niche Midrange' Thesis Questionable [View article]
    I just saw this, any thoughts?

    Wednesday, March 20, 5:50 PM The DoD will place an order for 650K iOS (AAPL) devices - 210K iPhones, 120K iPads, 100K iPad Minis, and 200K iPod touches - following the end of the sequester, Electronista reports. The iOS gear will reportedly be used to replace BlackBerrys - the DoD currently has 470K in operation - and would come ahead of the planned implementation of a "platform agnostic" device policy in Feb. 2014. Electronista previously reported the DoD had largely ended BB10 testing due to budget cuts.

    http://bit.ly/16KwyBk
    Mar 20, 2013. 09:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Rallies On Upgrade But 'Niche Midrange' Thesis Questionable [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. In fact, I wrote in a previous comment, "the question about the stock is different from the personal choice of device." It is important to remember the difference between picking a stock to invest in and picking a phone to buy. As I mentioned above, I prefer to use an iPhone. That does not prevent me from considering an investment in Blackberry too. In fact, I am also long Google.

    You bring up an important issue - the value of anecdotal evidence. There is obviously lots of value in anecdotal evidence, but it also has its limits. Both the value and the limits are important to remember.

    A few points about anecdotal evidence. First, based on the conversations that I have had about phones recently, I am not hearing interest in Blackberry. If anything, there is more interest in Samsung (even from an ex-Blackberry user). I do NOT want to extrapolate from my experience since it is too small a sample size and has other limits. Everybody has a different circle of friends, relatives, colleagues that influences their perspective.

    Second, the comments to the article are helpful. I appreciate hearing differing opinions. I recognize that there is a loyal base of Blackberry customers and Blackberry's new products are meeting demand from certain customers. The question is to what extent will Blackberry be able to expand and grow its platform from the success that it may have with the initial sales.

    Anecdotal evidence has its value and limits.
    Mar 20, 2013. 09:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Oracle's Earnings A Potential Catalyst For P/E Expansion And A Breakout? [View article]
    Hi IncomeYield,

    I don't think the situation is the same. There was Apple mania and I don't think there is Oracle mania.

    The problem with consumer device companies like Apple is that they constantly face the challenge of coming out with the next, best thing and product cycles are very, very short. Oracle needs to innovate as well, but benefits from ~50% recurring revenues, as mentioned above. It is a lot easier to switch an iPhone for a Galaxy than getting rid of Oracle systems.

    That is not an excuse for Oracle and it, obviously, needs to deliver. Apple bulls have been screaming valuation arguments and seen the stock go down 1/3. Investors need to watch out for when the market does not care about valuation and that may happen with Oracle (but probably happened already).

    Oracle's P/E in afterhours, is near the 2008/2009 low, but the company has a number of tailwinds, including a lot of new salespeople that are ramping up, new products, newly acquired companies and a balance sheet that it can use to buy back stock.

    I recognize that this was a bad quarter, but I don't think this is the same situation as Apple.
    Mar 20, 2013. 08:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Rallies On Upgrade But 'Niche Midrange' Thesis Questionable [View article]
    Do you have long term conviction on the stock or do you think it is going up to $25 on shorts covering and momentum?
    Mar 20, 2013. 08:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Rallies On Upgrade But 'Niche Midrange' Thesis Questionable [View article]
    Got it. Good point.
    Mar 20, 2013. 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Rallies On Upgrade But 'Niche Midrange' Thesis Questionable [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. I recognize there is bullish case for Blackberry and, as I said, the company has the cash and some time to make it work. Blackberry may come back, but I think it is too soon to call them the "leader" at this point. In what way would you call Blackberry the leader now?

    I agree that all the companies in the space need to innovate constantly and if they don't they will not last long.
    Mar 20, 2013. 07:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Rallies On Upgrade But 'Niche Midrange' Thesis Questionable [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. I think Apple still has more to worry about from Android/Samsung.

    Personally, I am planning to keep my iPhone. However, the question about the stock is different from the personal choice of device.
    Mar 20, 2013. 07:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Rallies On Upgrade But 'Niche Midrange' Thesis Questionable [View article]
    I want to repeat the point about trading/investing time frames. As I said, in the short term, Blackberry may be good for a trade, but my points are more long-term oriented.

    The discussion about new devices also should include mention of time frames. Blackberry may be benefiting now from pent-up demand from a loyal base (and a return of some former users) and buzz. But, the question will be can it leverage this to recreate a robust and growing platform.
    Mar 20, 2013. 07:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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