Seeking Alpha

Pendulum

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Pendulum's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Market Update: S&P 500 And Bonds At Cusp Of Bullish Moves, But Which Is Headed Higher? [View article]
    Richard93 - Thanks for your comment. The point about QE3 not coming soon enough and catching investors off guard is a good one. However, even if QE3 is delayed, Operation Twist is ongoing and should have an impact on bond prices, pushing up the long bonds. Agreed, that poor investing and margin calls could lead to losses, but we think that demand for bonds is going to remain strong as bonds are a safe haven asset (especially with the falling Euro). This may be too obvious a trade and may be overcrowded, so if bonds fall there could be loses and margin calls, as you point out, and more selling.
    Jul 22, 2012. 03:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Google As P/E Compression May Soon End; 2Q 2012 Earnings Good Enough For Investors [View article]
    Mr. Clark - Do you use any of Google's products, like Gmail, Google Search, Chrome, YouTube, etc.?
    Jul 22, 2012. 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Google As P/E Compression May Soon End; 2Q 2012 Earnings Good Enough For Investors [View article]
    Henry 3 Dogg - Thanks for your comment. The point about Siri is a good one. We haven't yet found Siri to be very useful, but Apple will likely improve it in future releases. By the way, this is one of the reasons that Android is so important for Google. It will be interesting to see how the Samsung situation plays out now that Google owns Motorola. Google said that they will keep the Android playing field fair, but, at least, Motorola may pick up some market share.
    Jul 22, 2012. 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Google As P/E Compression May Soon End; 2Q 2012 Earnings Good Enough For Investors [View article]
    hx88 - Thanks for your comment. Agreed that these are the risks, especially about the Motorola integration and the lack of visibility for Wall Street keeping investors away. We are not saying that the PE compression will halt immediately or that there will be PE expansion based on the 2Q results. Rather, we think that Google is approaching the point where the PE compression will stop. It could be now or in a few weeks or months. We are long the stock now and are willing to maybe be a bit early about it.
    Jul 22, 2012. 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Update: S&P 500 And Bonds At Cusp Of Bullish Moves, But Which Is Headed Higher? [View article]
    Chad - Thanks for your comment. You are right that it is possible for both stocks and bonds to move lower, but we are not sure what scenario gets us there. If the normal inverse correlation between stocks and bonds resumes than one of them should go up. If the macro environment improves, then stocks may go up, but bonds could go up as well because of the Fed's action. If the macro environment gets worse, then stocks may decline, but bonds could go up as a safe haven play. Under what scenario do you see stocks and bonds declining.
    Jul 22, 2012. 10:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM's 10% Correction May Be A Buying Opportunity After 2Q EPS Beat And Guidance Raised [View article]
    Brian - That is a good question. We think that it is best to add acquisitions into CapEx. Every acquisition is different, so it is hard to generalize about this. However, we think that the argument for adding acquisitions to CapEx is most relevant for small acquisitions, because in those situations the company is usually buying R&D, growth, new products. If the company does a very large acquisition, or a merger of equals, then it is different than CapEx. IBM does a lot of small acquisitions, so it seems that most of its acquisition spend should be CapEx. By the way, according to IBM's recent IR presentation that details the 2015 roadmap, it expects to spend $20 billion on acquisitions from 2010 - 2015, but some of that has already happened (http://ibm.co/MaXizy).
    Jul 19, 2012. 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM's 10% Correction May Be A Buying Opportunity After 2Q EPS Beat And Guidance Raised [View article]
    Brian - Thanks for your comments. We love the buyback. Regarding Free cash flow and CapEx, it is important to remember that IBM makes a lot of acquisitions. Jim Chanos made a great point yesterday in the context of HP about how its acquisitions should be considered a form of CapEx (there is a video on CNBC.com about it). Obviously, IBM is a much better company than HP, but the point about tech acquisitions being a form of CapEx is a good one.
    Jul 19, 2012. 08:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consider Buying Intel After 2Q 2012 Earnings [View article]
    Crookedwood - Thanks for your comment.
    Jul 19, 2012. 08:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM's 10% Correction May Be A Buying Opportunity After 2Q EPS Beat And Guidance Raised [View article]
    remurraymd - Thanks for your comment. We wish we had bought Apple a few years back like you did. Investors don't need to choose between IBM and Apple, but if we compare the two, one reason to like IBM is that its recurring revenue model is becoming a more important driver for the company. Apple has done a great job on the device innovation front and we expect it to continue to do so and Apple's stock still has a lot of upside potential. However, we like IBM's business model for the long term, even if it does not have as rapid growth.
    Jul 19, 2012. 08:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM's 10% Correction May Be A Buying Opportunity After 2Q EPS Beat And Guidance Raised [View article]
    Dancing Diva - Thanks for your comment. IBM also raised its FY 2012 EPS guidance after the Q1 results. At the time it raised its EPS target to $15.00 from $14.85. There aren't that many companies that have raised guidance two quarters in a row in this macro environment. We agree that the slow revenue growth is an issue, but it seems to be able to make the bottom line numbers anyway. At some point, revenue will pick up and then IBM will get the benefit of its operating leverage.
    Jul 19, 2012. 07:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Consider Buying Intel After 2Q 2012 Earnings [View article]
    MexCom - Thanks for your comment. Sounds like you are suggesting a Dogs of the Dow strategy.
    Jul 18, 2012. 08:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citigroup Q2 2012 Earnings: Company Beats Estimates, Is A Potential Buy At 0.5x Tangible Book Value Per Share [View article]
    Also, good point about maybe wanting to wait for momentum. We are looking at the $29.50 level to see if the stock can mark new upside territory. That said, if investors are more aggressive, they may want to get in now.
    Jul 17, 2012. 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citigroup Q2 2012 Earnings: Company Beats Estimates, Is A Potential Buy At 0.5x Tangible Book Value Per Share [View article]
    Do you consider all big banks to be "black holes" or just Citigroup?
    Jul 17, 2012. 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Update: S&P 500 At A Crossroads As JPMorgan Offers Relief, Wal-Mart Hits New Highs [View article]
    gggl - Thanks for your comments.

    Agreed that the retail sales number was bad. Autos were up, however, which we are following. The lower retail sales number was surprising given the recent decline in gas prices. It will be interesting to see how the projections for back-to-school season will now be impacted.

    Good questions about QE3. We don't know the answers, but we think that QE3 is becoming more of a possibility, though we are not sure it is needed. The problems with the world are on the fiscal and political side. It would be much better if politicians can avoid the Fiscal Cliff. But central banks around the world are lowering interest rates (Europe, China, South Korea, etc.), which could pave the way to more QE3. Over time, each round of QE or Fed action will likely have less of an impact on the market, so the question remains how much help will the market get from QE3, if it comes.
    Jul 16, 2012. 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Update: S&P 500 At A Crossroads As JPMorgan Offers Relief, Wal-Mart Hits New Highs [View article]
    RJL1955 - Thanks for your feedback.
    Jul 14, 2012. 11:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
541 Comments
122 Likes