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  • Icahn's Sale Of Hain Celestial: Is It The End, Or The Start Of A New Chapter? [View article]
    Hi TheWatt,

    Thanks for the comments.
    Sep 9, 2013. 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa: Awaiting An Answer To 'Bounce Or Breakdown?' [View article]
    Hi Trendyglitz,

    Thanks for the comment.
    Sep 3, 2013. 08:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa: Awaiting An Answer To 'Bounce Or Breakdown?' [View article]
    Hi haleiwahu,

    Thanks for the comments.

    I don't blame Alcoa for what is going in. I agree "They have done nothing wrong. "

    They are in a cyclical business and this is the downside of the cycle because of too much supply.
    Sep 3, 2013. 07:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Century Aluminum: Positive Actions Amid Industry Headwinds [View article]
    Hi Q10 investigator,

    Yes, more aluminum seems to be going into cars. I discussed this a bit in the article. However, demand isn't the issue for the industry. Alcoa thinks aluminum demand is growing at 7% annually and Rusal thinks it is growing at 6%. Both indicate good demand. The real issue is supply.
    Sep 2, 2013. 02:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross's Perspective On The 10-Year Treasury [View article]
    Hi Marek,

    Thanks for the comments.

    I don't think that he is using the 10-year "as an indicator on when to buy shorter maturities and when to sell them and wait for another trade opportunity or just put them into the longer maturies for holding."

    My take is that he thinks about the yield curve in the opposite way. He is pretty confident that the Fed will keep the Fed Funds Rate low for a while, which should keep shorter term maturities (1-5 or 1-10 years) at low levels. The intermediate and long term maturities are more of an issue.

    He may not be trading the 10-year much now, but he seemed to be earlier in the summer, based on the data above.

    By the way, it is interesting to note that Gross' last two outlooks were about a boat sinking and one of the worst battles in history. These metaphors are very telling. I wonder what is up next.
    Aug 31, 2013. 04:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Still Bearish On Junk Bonds [View article]
    Hi,

    JNK and HYG focus mostly on B and BB. See their websites.
    Aug 28, 2013. 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Updated Analysis Of The Bullish Case For Regal-Beloit [View article]
    Hi fastcatazule,

    Thank you.
    Aug 27, 2013. 08:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Bullish Case For American Apparel [View article]
    Hi AdamDivy,

    Thanks for the comments. I don't know about the Tesla relationship, but it makes sense. Good decision on their part to go with Made In America manufacturing.
    Aug 26, 2013. 03:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Bullish Case For American Apparel [View article]
    Also, for more about the hipster fashion trend please see:

    Urban Outfitters: A Bright Spot In Retail, Score One For The Hipsters

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Aug 26, 2013. 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Minutes And Treasury Bonds: Focus On Forward Guidance, Not Tapering [View article]
    An update from Jackson Hole:

    At Fed Conference, Everyone Knows How to Make an Exit

    http://on.wsj.com/16xLUFI
    Aug 25, 2013. 08:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Minutes And Treasury Bonds: Focus On Forward Guidance, Not Tapering [View article]
    Hi JT4041,

    Thanks for the comments.

    I agree that QE is not having much of an impact at this point. However, I don't think that the Fed can come up with a new plan.

    The Fed may adjust its forward guidance and lower the unemployment threshold for raising rates. But, aside from that I am not sure there is much the Fed can do.

    The problem is that, at best, the economy needs time to heal. There is still too much slack - too much unemployment, capacity utilization too low. At this point, I don't think that the Fed can do much to accelerate the healing process.

    We overly praise/criticize presidents for economic activity. Similarly, we may be expecting too much from the Fed.

    I agree that this is not good news.
    Aug 24, 2013. 08:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Minutes And Treasury Bonds: Focus On Forward Guidance, Not Tapering [View article]
    Interesting.

    I have a heavy cash position. I was short Treasuries, junk bonds and equities earlier this summer. The short Treasuries trade worked out well, the others were flat/OK.

    I also think that we get a bounce in stocks in the next few weeks and I am planning on selling into it. I don't see as much downside as you, but I prefer to sit in cash.

    Good luck!
    Aug 23, 2013. 11:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Concentrated Portfolio Of Great Companies [View article]
    Hi alschroed,

    Thanks for the comment.

    I can understand that some people would want to avoid cyclicals. I am OK with them. Every company faces bankruptcy risk eventually, even non-cylicals.
    Aug 23, 2013. 07:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Minutes And Treasury Bonds: Focus On Forward Guidance, Not Tapering [View article]
    Hi Macro Investor,

    Thanks!
    Aug 23, 2013. 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Minutes And Treasury Bonds: Focus On Forward Guidance, Not Tapering [View article]
    Hi contrarianadvisor,

    I was referring to the Fed Funds Rate, when I said, "I expect the economy growth to be slow, so the Fed will keep interest rates low for the next few years."

    That is quite a forecast - 1% on the 10-year in 6 months. Wow.

    Just out of curiosity, how are you playing this thesis? Long LT bonds, short stocks and/or something else. In your scenario, what is the best trade.
    Aug 23, 2013. 05:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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