Seeking Alpha

Pendulum

View as an RSS Feed
View Pendulum's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Bullish On American Apparel: Beyond Controversy, An Inflection Point And Growth [View article]
    Hi seekingalphaalpha,

    Thanks for the comments. A few responses.

    This is definitely a high risk / high reward company and this article is focused on the long-term. This is not an overnight trading idea.

    Of course nobody knows what is going to happen 3-5 years from now. In the upside case, I set out a bunch of assumptions. If you don't agree with those assumptions, that is fine.

    I also noted a downside case where the stock could lose 50% of its value. There is clearly downside potential.

    We will see how it plays out over the next few months and year.
    Jul 30 04:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish On American Apparel: Beyond Controversy, An Inflection Point And Growth [View article]
    Hi Adam,

    Thank you.
    Jul 30 03:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish On American Apparel: Beyond Controversy, An Inflection Point And Growth [View article]
    Hi Marc,

    Thanks for the comments and questions.

    1) The midpoint for management's guidance for FY 2013 sales is a 6.3% increase over FY 2012. This is not just the retail segment and includes wholesale. In the retail segment they plan on opening 5 new stores, but most of the increase in retail revenue will come from same store sales. Management has not given guidance on same store sales, as far as I know. You can see the historical numbers in the tables in the article. Given this information, I thought it was prudent to start with 5% and decline. It will be hard to keep up with the historical numbers, but the initiative to increase accessories sales should help same store sales.

    2) I don't know the same store sales numbers for international vs. US. However, FY 2012 revenue growth compares to FY 2011 was 13.8%, 2.9%, 11.5% for US retail, Canada and International. US Retail had 3 less stores on a net basis and international had 7 more stores on a net basis.

    I hope this helps, but please do not rely on my information. This info is in the company's financials, so please check it. The article and my comments are not investment advice.
    Jul 30 03:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish On American Apparel: Beyond Controversy, An Inflection Point And Growth [View article]
    Update: Michael Bigger wrote a blog post about this article:

    http://bit.ly/16hgrva

    As I mentioned, I came across APP because of Michael Bigger's blog. This is a good example of following smart people, but doing your own homework. I liked his idea, but did my own homework. Please do your own homework and do not rely on my article. My article is NOT investing advice.

    In his post, Michael Bigger wrote:

    "It seems the company is getting quite a lot of attention from investors lately, and we are happy to see this. We would like to point out though that consumer spending headwinds have been faced by companies such as Crocs ($CROX), Coach ($COH), Deckers ($DECK), and a few others lately. Although $APP is not immune to these type of macro economic issues, our long term thesis is unchanged. We believe the company has strengthened its balance sheet to be able to withstand a few bumps on the road."

    This is an important risk.

    As I wrote in my article:

    "The 3x potential increase in the share price will likely take a few years to play out. Even if the upside case plays out, there may be dips along the way, so having a strategy for the downside is important. There are a lot of risks, so please do your own detailed homework. This article is not investment advice."
    Jul 30 12:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Disaster Scenario For Treasury Bonds [View article]
    Hi britaylor123,

    Thanks for the comment. Even the Fed thinks the 10-year will go back to 3-4% in a couple of years. See the chart above.
    Jul 30 08:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Disaster Scenario For Treasury Bonds [View article]
    Hi Just Some Guy,

    Thanks for the comment.
    Jul 30 08:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Disaster Scenario For Treasury Bonds [View article]
    Hi Read The Papers,

    I appreciate your perspective. Do you think that a 10 year Treasury represents good value at 2.6% or do you think of it as just a trade.
    Jul 29 07:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Disaster Scenario For Treasury Bonds [View article]
    Hi Read The Papers,

    Thanks for the comments.

    I find it interesting that 10-year has not given up much of the move that it made. It closed today at 2.59% and has been hanging around the highs for a while. I am worried that the buyers aren't driving down the yield more.
    Jul 29 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Disaster Scenario For Treasury Bonds [View article]
    HI whiff and mobyss,

    Bernanke was asked about this in his Congressional testimony and did not seem to think it was an issue.
    Jul 29 03:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Disaster Scenario For Treasury Bonds [View article]
    Hi Southgent1951,

    Thanks for the comments. I agree that stocks can do well with higher interest rates and the real issue is the dislocations from getting there from here.
    Jul 29 03:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Disaster Scenario For Treasury Bonds [View article]
    Hi wally1200,

    Thanks for the feedback.
    Jul 29 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Disaster Scenario For Treasury Bonds [View article]
    Hi The Social Scientist,

    Thanks for your comments.

    The reduced demand for bonds as a result of tapering is just one of the dynamics at play. There are other bond investors that may act differently. There is much more to the supply/demand dynamic that just the Fed, but I would not ignore that either.
    Jul 29 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Disaster Scenario For Treasury Bonds [View article]
    Hi Michaelxyz,

    Yes, many people have expected the 10-year rate to go up for a while already.

    But, there has been a lot of QE and bond buying by the Fed over the past years. That is soon coming to an end and may reflect an inflation point. If there ever was a point for the "bond vigilantes" to make their presence know it would be as QE Infinity winds down. With the Fed's bid in the bond market going away, it may leave the 10-year vulnerable (I am not so bullish on the success for forward guidance).

    I don't know whee the bond sellers would put their money. Maybe, just in short term bonds. If you think that the 10-year could decline 10% in a few months, the interest rates on short term bonds does not look so bad while you wait on the sidelines.

    We'll see how it plays out. There are good arguments in both directions.
    Jul 29 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Disaster Scenario For Treasury Bonds [View article]
    Hi buyandhold???

    Thanks for your comments. I have been doing homework on Japan, but I am not ready to comment on it yet. Good luck!
    Jul 29 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish On American Apparel: Beyond Controversy, An Inflection Point And Growth [View article]
    Hi Josh,

    Thanks for your comment. I have enjoyed your articles, but we disagree about APP. There are always two sides to a stock, so hopefully Seeking Alpha readers will benefit from the two articles and can reach their own conclusions.
    Jul 29 12:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
541 Comments
122 Likes