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  • The Disaster Scenario For Treasury Bonds [View article]
    Hi june1234,

    Thanks for the comments.
    Jul 29, 2013. 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Disaster Scenario For Treasury Bonds [View article]
    Hi Lucierja,

    Thanks for the comments.

    One of my points is that the Fed is only one factor in the equation. I think it is dangerous to assume that the bond market will behave exactly as the Fed would like it to behave.

    Bond investors may decide there is just too much risk to hold the 10-year at 2.6% and demand a higher yield. That is one of the scenarios that concerns me.

    I don't know if this is a high or low probability scenario, but it concerns me because the ramifications could be big.
    Jul 29, 2013. 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Disaster Scenario For Treasury Bonds [View article]
    Hi Gratian,

    Thanks for your comments.
    Jul 29, 2013. 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Disaster Scenario For Treasury Bonds [View article]
    HI michaelxyz,

    Thanks for the comments.

    I don't agree that a rise in rates will necessarily come from rising global growth rates.

    That ignores the potential impact of bond market vigilantes. Regardless of growth rates, bond investors may demand higher rates, because they expect higher rates to come later. We may get higher rates before higher growth rates.
    Jul 29, 2013. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Disaster Scenario For Treasury Bonds [View article]
    Hi contrarianadvisor,

    Thanks for your comments.

    I agree that in a big risk-off scenario Treasury bonds may do well, as yields decline. (Other bonds may not do as well, but that is a different story.)

    The question is about triggers and timing. A move up in Treasury rates could spark a risk-off scenario, which, ironically, could cause demand for Treasuries to increase.

    I agree that there are risks from China and Europe, but I still think an upside move in Treasury rates is the biggest near term threat.
    Jul 29, 2013. 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Disaster Scenario For Treasury Bonds [View article]
    Hi shoemouse,

    Yes, thanks for catching that. Sorry for the typo.
    Jul 29, 2013. 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Disaster Scenario For Treasury Bonds [View article]
    Hi gunzo,

    Thanks for the questions.

    It depends on the speed of the (potential) move up to 3.5%. If it is quick, then I would expect the S&P 500 to decline. At this point, I believe that bonds are the biggest risk for stocks. So, if bond yields rise and bond prices fall, that would be a negative for stocks.

    There are a few reasons for this.

    A 3.5% yield on the 10-year would make high dividend paying stocks less attractive. A 3% dividend looked great when the 10-year was at 1.6%, but may not be as attractive with the 10-year at 3.5%. I don't expect these stocks to crash, but they may need to reprice.

    I am bullish on housing stocks, but rising rates are a risk for them (I plan on writing about this more soon).

    Also, it will be interesting to see how the banks deal with a rise in rates.

    Finally, a rise in the 10-year to 3.5% would also impact the corporate and high-yield bond market and could impact the price of debt funding for many companies.

    For more about my outlook on equities, please see:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Please note that I am long puts on the S&P 500 SPY ETF (that stand to gain in value if it declines). Also, this is not investment advice. Every investor needs to do their own homework.
    Jul 29, 2013. 09:39 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Disaster Scenario For Treasury Bonds [View article]
    Hi Bernard,

    The mistake was fixed. Thanks for your comments.
    Jul 29, 2013. 09:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha fires a shot at Bloomberg, StreetAccount [View news story]
    Market Currents is a great feature and I like the new format. Nice change.

    (But, I agree with the previous comments about the symbol)
    Jul 29, 2013. 08:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Disaster Scenario For Treasury Bonds [View article]
    Hi Bernanrd,

    Thanks for catching that. You are right. I meant "$40 BILLION of mortgage bonds and $45 BILLION of "longer-term" Treasury bonds per month"

    I guess that was a Freudian slip after all the tapering talk.
    Jul 29, 2013. 07:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish On Chefs' Warehouse: 60% Upside Potential In 1-2 Years And Great Long-Term Story [View article]
    Hi Paul,

    I just want to clarify that I am not an official analyst. Thanks for your comments.
    Jul 25, 2013. 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish On Chefs' Warehouse: 60% Upside Potential In 1-2 Years And Great Long-Term Story [View article]
    Hi Ryan,

    I don't include accounts payable in my TEV calculation. The TEV looks at the capital (debt and equity) that went into the company.

    If you want to include accounts payable, then why not add receivables and inventory?
    Jul 25, 2013. 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish On Chefs' Warehouse: 60% Upside Potential In 1-2 Years And Great Long-Term Story [View article]
    Hi Ryan,

    What do you mean by a/p?
    Jul 25, 2013. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish On Regal Beloit: Buying The Dip, Sentiment Lows, And Misunderstood Growth Potential [View article]
    Hi Dthampi2009,

    Thank you.
    Jul 24, 2013. 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish On Regal Beloit: Buying The Dip, Sentiment Lows, And Misunderstood Growth Potential [View article]
    Hi 1sd,

    Thanks for the feedback.

    Yes, I agree that dilution is a concern. At the moment the company is in-between the latest dilutive offering and putting those proceeds to work. There may be more dilution if the company does a big acquisition, but the dilution risk is a bit lower now.
    Jul 23, 2013. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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