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  • Is Cyprus A Template? Draghi, Your Turn To Answer Is Coming Up [View article]
    In general, yes. But Spain/Italy have some ability to push back. It didn't seem like Germany got everything it wanted with the crisis last summer.
    Apr 1, 2013. 02:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500's P/E Multiple Ending Q1 At 3-Year High [View article]
    Hi JCATRI,

    Good point. We are at a different part of the rebound from the 2008/2009 crisis. The "easy" earnings growth has happened already and it is becoming more challenging. Still, I don't think earnings growth is done.

    Interestingly, I don't think that the sales and earnings hurdles seem high for the top 100 S&P 500 companies. I wrote about this last week here: http://seekingalpha.co...

    What do you think?
    Mar 25, 2013. 08:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500's P/E Multiple Ending Q1 At 3-Year High [View article]
    Hi WACG,

    That is a good question. The data from Yahoo that I used in this article are forward EPS estimates and forward EPS estimates are guesses anyway.

    For analysis like this I rely on Yahoo Finance, since what I care about most is how the market is trading in relation to the numbers and changes in the numbers over time.

    If I am looking at a specific company, it is important to dive into the financial statements directly and not rely on Yahoo Finance or any other service provider. It all depends on the purpose of the analysis.

    If you have ideas about other sources that have better data than Yahoo Finance, please let me know.
    Mar 25, 2013. 08:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Rallies On Upgrade But 'Niche Midrange' Thesis Questionable [View article]
    Thanks for the comments and providing a counter-point to my article, which is always useful. Good luck!
    Mar 21, 2013. 09:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Rallies On Upgrade But 'Niche Midrange' Thesis Questionable [View article]
    I just saw this, any thoughts?

    Wednesday, March 20, 5:50 PM The DoD will place an order for 650K iOS (AAPL) devices - 210K iPhones, 120K iPads, 100K iPad Minis, and 200K iPod touches - following the end of the sequester, Electronista reports. The iOS gear will reportedly be used to replace BlackBerrys - the DoD currently has 470K in operation - and would come ahead of the planned implementation of a "platform agnostic" device policy in Feb. 2014. Electronista previously reported the DoD had largely ended BB10 testing due to budget cuts.

    http://bit.ly/16KwyBk
    Mar 20, 2013. 09:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Rallies On Upgrade But 'Niche Midrange' Thesis Questionable [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. I think Apple still has more to worry about from Android/Samsung.

    Personally, I am planning to keep my iPhone. However, the question about the stock is different from the personal choice of device.
    Mar 20, 2013. 07:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Rallies On Upgrade But 'Niche Midrange' Thesis Questionable [View article]
    I want to repeat the point about trading/investing time frames. As I said, in the short term, Blackberry may be good for a trade, but my points are more long-term oriented.

    The discussion about new devices also should include mention of time frames. Blackberry may be benefiting now from pent-up demand from a loyal base (and a return of some former users) and buzz. But, the question will be can it leverage this to recreate a robust and growing platform.
    Mar 20, 2013. 07:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Rallies On Upgrade But 'Niche Midrange' Thesis Questionable [View article]
    I am not short Blackberry in any way. That is absolutely not true. In fact, in the article I said, "Shorting the stock has its risks, so I am staying away." In the future I may trade the stock and things may change, but I have NO position now.
    Mar 20, 2013. 06:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Rallies On Upgrade But 'Niche Midrange' Thesis Questionable [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. Yes, I am long Apple. However, it is not an either/or decision for me. I recently wrote about Google and I am long Google too.

    With regards to Apple, I think that the stock is due for a turnaround. Valuation is cheap and it is still the leader. It may have lost some of its luster, but I am comfortable owning it now.

    You make a good point about hanging on to past mistakes too long. However, I am not yet convinced about its future. As I mentioned in the article it has cash, time and a loyal base, so it may work out for Blackberry. The interesting thing is that the "bullish" upgrade that drove the stock up today does not seem that bullish. The report is an interesting read. It may be too conservative, but it seems the analyst is also taking a show-me stance.

    As you say, Long Blackberry has worked and the large short position could help the stock further, but I wonder if it is a trade or a long term investment.
    Mar 20, 2013. 05:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Rallies On Upgrade But 'Niche Midrange' Thesis Questionable [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. I don't understand why Apple doesn't do a larger phone. Obviously they have thought about it, but are holding back. I would buy a larger iPhone.

    I definitely think Apple is leaving room for competition to creep in. We'll see who benefits the most.
    Mar 20, 2013. 05:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Rallies On Upgrade But 'Niche Midrange' Thesis Questionable [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. Good point.
    Mar 20, 2013. 04:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Rallies On Upgrade But 'Niche Midrange' Thesis Questionable [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. Blackberry had been above $10 all year, so I wonder if this is really setting the news of following the news. I still think it will take time to judge the acceptance of the new products. Even if the new products do well, I am not convinced that this is a good long term buy, but may work for a trade.
    Mar 20, 2013. 04:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Impact Of The 'Draghi Put' On The Cyprus Crisis And Key Euro Levels To Watch [View article]
    It is interesting that Draghi still has a lot of firepower. He has room to lower rates and the OMT was not yet tested. So far, he has done a lot for the market by just making a speech and putting the OMT in place. It will be interesting to see what happens when the ECB finally acts. Could the Draghi Put rally be a "buy the rumor sell the news" kind of thing or will the rally continue (after an OMT deal with Spain, or lowering rates, etc.) ? I am not sure yet, but thinking about it.
    Mar 19, 2013. 12:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Impact Of The 'Draghi Put' On The Cyprus Crisis And Key Euro Levels To Watch [View article]
    Hi Asbytec,

    Thanks for your comment. I agree that the big problem is the stagnant economy and there needs to be a lot of work on that from multiple angles. The Draghi Put will not be able to solve that problem. Draghi has some room on interest rates, so we will see if he cuts. Still, the long term economic problems are too big to be solved just by an interest rate cut.

    There probably needs to be banking integration, budget oversight, new labor laws and a lot of other solutions. Unfortunately, the politicians (not the ECB) need to work on those things and it seems that politicians only move things forward when there is a crisis.
    Mar 19, 2013. 12:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Reader's Death & The Monetization Creep [View article]
    Vertical Spread,

    I am still surprised they could not get it to pay for itself. I would have paid for it. But, companies need to focus and that's life.

    Good luck with your reader!
    Mar 18, 2013. 01:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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