The Pendulum blog is an ongoing discussion of portfolio positions, investment ideas and market trends. As an investor I try to use my independence, flexibility and speed to my advantage. I write three types of articles: (i) stock-specific articles, (ii) analysis of earnings estimates and (iii) overviews of the market that examine different asset classes. I hope you find them interesting and feel free to comment on the articles; I like the feedback. Thanks for reading! I started thinking about stock prices in terms of a pendulum after reading Howard Marks' investor letters. Marks is the most perceptive investor about the role of investor psychology in the stock market and industry cycles. I always try to incorporate "pendulum thinking" in my analysis, meaning that it is important to think about the intrinsic value of a company as well as how investor psychology is going to drive the stock price to overshoot and undershoot that value. I am a generalist. I am not an expert in any one sector or asset class. I have found that there is value in listening to generalists as well as experts, but it is important to be able to distinguish between the two. As a generalist, I try to add value by thinking about the relationships between things and comparing various parts of the market. Generalists can be helpful in avoiding tunnel vision and, hopefully, adding some common sense. I like to establish a long term outlook for a company and then invest using shorter timeframes. I may be bullish on a stock and still sell it if I think it went up too much or if have concerns about the overall market. I don't mind moving to the sidelines and getting back in at a later point and I sometimes prefer to sell before earnings to reduce risk. I may invest in the opposite direction of my long term view if I think the market over-reacted one way or another. I like to hold positions for the long term, but I use stops to cut my losses. There is a difference between a good company and a good stock. Everybody has a different investing style, experience, tax status, risk tolerance, comfort range, etc., so please note that nothing that I write should be used as investment advice. Disclaimer: The opinions expressed here should not be construed as investment advice. This is not tailored to specific investment objectives. Reliance on this information for the purpose of buying the securities to which this information relates may expose a person to significant risk. The information contained in this article is not intended to make any offer, inducement, invitation or commitment to purchase, subscribe to, provide or sell any securities, service or product or to provide any recommendations on which one should rely for financial, securities, investment or other advice or to take any decision. Readers are encouraged to seek individual advice from their personal, financial, legal and other advisers before making any investment or financial decisions or purchasing any financial, securities or investment related service or product. Information provided, whether charts or any other statements regarding market, real estate or other financial information, is obtained from sources which we and our suppliers believe reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. Nothing in this article should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future performance. THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED AS TO ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE OR ANY LINKED WEBSITE.
I invest (technically) part-time, but I love the markets and immerse myself in them daily. I enjoy writing about my investment ideas as it helps me to organize my thoughts and I am happy to share if it helps others. I invite criticism as it will help sharpen my ideas, so please tell me where, in your opinion, I am going wrong.
Born and raised in the USA, graduated with a degree in Finance then worked at a multi-strategy global hedge fund for about 4 years analyzing stocks all over the world. In 2007 I left the USA and moved to China to study Chinese and start a business. Now, I am the CEO and Co-founder of eFin which provides wall street level research to main street investors via a proprietary algorithm. Our eFin scoe that takes into consideration hundreds of factors to provide the best period of time to make an investment in a stock.
Nevertheless, my experience working at the hedge fund and running my own business has improved vastly my investment making decisions. I believe Warren Buffett said it best “I am a better investor because I am a businessman and a better businessman because I am an investor”. I have had my share of busts and winners and have gotten wise enough to always look at both sides of every investment no matter how negative or optimistic the situation is.
Trading Stocks for twenty years, worked for a Stock and Options training Company. I continue to study the markets, economics, history and current affairs, putting all of the pieces of the puzzle together. Working with a Robotic Trading platform, developing trading formula's for it.
Education:Targeting English, Economics, History, Math and Political Science
Most of my working career has been spent running small businesses.
One of those businesses was the Stock Market and trading stocks, treating it as one of my businesses. As a student of the market, I do research on stocks using current software and several internet sites to compile enough information to make an educated trade.
Grew up in Horse racing, I learned how to handicap horse races at a very young age. I often would hitch a ride out to the race track as often as I could make the time. Horse racing and horses was a family hobby.
My other interest was baseball; fishing and travel.
In my articles I plan on writing more about Companies coming up on their Earnings . What Stocks to watch that are coming up on their Earnings, about thirty five days before they report, always forward looking. I want to write about my experiences, what I am finding in my research about individual Stocks that interest me the most and why. This is one thing I know from my involvement with the market is that Stock traders are emotional, they trade in basic patterns. That Earnings are a big part of what makes individual Stocks move up or down. Stocks that are profitable and showing positive results their stock price runs upward and the Companies that are not getting good results their stock price falls off, drifting lower.
I Hope you will enjoy my insight and reading my articles, and may they bring you good fortune and profit in your trading.
I am interested in all comments, so please write me.
By Steven C. Allen
Recent graduate from Bulls on Wall Street and a full time day trader. I have been an investor in the stock market for over 20 years. It wasn't until Stocktwits and Twitter came out that I realized I was missing the boat in the market.
I was your typical Buy and hold kind of guy and I had some fantastic wins. However, I also had some mammoth losses with that strategy. I read hundreds of books, went to investment seminars, subscribed to the Wall street Journal. IBD, Barron's and countless other financial publications. I spent thousands of hours studying and reading about the macro economy and companies I wanted to invest in. I studied company financials, read every article about them, listened to conference calls, looked into management, checked out their product or service all in the hopes of investing in the next Apple, Microsoft, Walmart, early and becoming an overnight millionaire.
Then I started following day traders on Twitter and Stocktwits and I watched these traders make some pretty impressive profits holding a stock for literally 10 minutes or an hour. I actually watched one individual make an obscene amount of money in one stock both on the way up and then on the way down in about 4 hours. The kicker for me was when he concluded his trading in that stock he asked " Hey does anyone know what that company does?" I was floored!! They were in and out in one day and holding a cash position overnight. Not having to worry about waking up the following morning to some negative Press release about one of the companies they are invested in, or the overall macro economy that sends markets or your stock plunging.
It was then that I decided to educate myself and learn this craft to become a full time trader. Now I am blessed and living my dream of making a living doing what I love as a day trader and blogging about my journey. You know you have passion for your job when you are sad that its Friday and you can't wait till Monday.