The Pendulum blog is an ongoing discussion of portfolio positions, investment ideas and market trends. As an investor I try to use my independence, flexibility and speed to my advantage. I write three types of articles: (i) stock-specific articles, (ii) analysis of earnings estimates and (iii) overviews of the market that examine different asset classes. I hope you find them interesting and feel free to comment on the articles; I like the feedback. Thanks for reading! I started thinking about stock prices in terms of a pendulum after reading Howard Marks' investor letters. Marks is the most perceptive investor about the role of investor psychology in the stock market and industry cycles. I always try to incorporate "pendulum thinking" in my analysis, meaning that it is important to think about the intrinsic value of a company as well as how investor psychology is going to drive the stock price to overshoot and undershoot that value. I am a generalist. I am not an expert in any one sector or asset class. I have found that there is value in listening to generalists as well as experts, but it is important to be able to distinguish between the two. As a generalist, I try to add value by thinking about the relationships between things and comparing various parts of the market. Generalists can be helpful in avoiding tunnel vision and, hopefully, adding some common sense. I like to establish a long term outlook for a company and then invest using shorter timeframes. I may be bullish on a stock and still sell it if I think it went up too much or if have concerns about the overall market. I don't mind moving to the sidelines and getting back in at a later point and I sometimes prefer to sell before earnings to reduce risk. I may invest in the opposite direction of my long term view if I think the market over-reacted one way or another. I like to hold positions for the long term, but I use stops to cut my losses. There is a difference between a good company and a good stock. Everybody has a different investing style, experience, tax status, risk tolerance, comfort range, etc., so please note that nothing that I write should be used as investment advice. Disclaimer: The opinions expressed here should not be construed as investment advice. This is not tailored to specific investment objectives. Reliance on this information for the purpose of buying the securities to which this information relates may expose a person to significant risk. The information contained in this article is not intended to make any offer, inducement, invitation or commitment to purchase, subscribe to, provide or sell any securities, service or product or to provide any recommendations on which one should rely for financial, securities, investment or other advice or to take any decision. Readers are encouraged to seek individual advice from their personal, financial, legal and other advisers before making any investment or financial decisions or purchasing any financial, securities or investment related service or product. Information provided, whether charts or any other statements regarding market, real estate or other financial information, is obtained from sources which we and our suppliers believe reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. Nothing in this article should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future performance. THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED AS TO ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE OR ANY LINKED WEBSITE.
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I enjoy analyzing the financial health of companies and pointing out areas the market is either not recognizing or ignoring. A long time investor, I put my money where my mouth is. That's why I'm passionate about my positions. I trumpet companies I believe in and back my articles up with data and graphs.
Mr. Hui has been involved in the equity markets since 1980, both on the buy side and the sell side. He is a CFA Charterholder, and has presented numerous papers to quantitative discussion groups (Sample topics include: How Global are Resource Sectors).
Mike Winston, CFA is the founder and Managing Principal of Sutton View Capital LLC, an employee owned hedge fund sponsor and advisor. The firm provides its services to high net worth individuals, family offices and institutions. Sutton View was founded in 2012 and is focused on event-driven and intrinsic value investing.
Mr. Winston received an MBA in Finance and Economics from Columbia Business School in 2005, and a BA in Economics from Cornell University in 1999. At Columbia he completed the school’s program in Value Investing, and while at Cornell studied for a year at the London School of Economics. He began his career in 1999 with Credit Suisse First Boston.
Mr. Winston is a CFA charter holder and a member of the Economic Club of New York.
Mr. Roche is the founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC, a low fee financial services firm based in San Diego, CA as well as the founder of the popular financial website Pragmatic Capitalism (some articles from Pragmatic Capitalism get syndicated on Seeking Alpha so please see the full site if you don't want to miss articles by Mr. Roche).
Orcam Financial Group, LLC (www.orcamgroup.com) is a low fee financial services firm offering asset management, personal advisory, consulting and educational services. Pragmatic Capitalism (http://pragcap.com) was founded by Cullen Roche in the midst of the financial crisis of 2008. Mr. Roche foresaw many of the events that led up to the crisis and felt that the government was slow to react and when it did finally react, responded with the wrong medicine.
Mr. Roche's primary areas of expertise include global macro portfolio construction, quantitative risk management, monetary economics and behavioral finance. Prior to establishing his own business, Mr. Roche worked at Merrill Lynch Global Wealth Management where he worked on a team overseeing $500MM+ in assets under management. Upon leaving Merrill Lynch, Mr. Roche managed a private investment partnership for 7 years generating substantial positive alpha (high risk adjusted returns) without a single negative year of returns. He has since transitioned back to retail asset management to better serve the much needed low fee retail space with sophisticated but simple asset management and financial planning services.
Mr. Roche is also a prolific writer. In addition to the daily musings on his website, he is the author of the popular book “Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Money and Finance” as well as “Understanding the Modern Monetary System”, one of the top 10 all-time most downloaded research papers on the SSRN academic research network. He was named one of the “Top Wall Street Economists, Experts and Opinion Leaders” of 2011 by Wall Street Economists and was named one of the “101 Best Finance People” by Business Insider where he was described as “one of the most influential economic thinkers today.” In 2015 Mr. Roche was named one of the “40 Under 40” most influential people in finance by InvestmentNews. He is regularly cited in the Wall Street Journal, on CNBC and in the Financial Times.
Mr. Roche is a Georgetown University alumnus, growing up in the DC area and now living in Southern California with his wife Erica, troublesome collie Cal and 4 irritable laying hens. In addition to being a financial dork Cullen is an avid outdoorsman, mediocre gardener, proficient complex carbohydrate consumer (i.e., loves brownies and cake) and finisher of one of the most difficult IRONMAN races at Cabo in 2015.
Whitney Tilson is the founder and Managing Partner of Kase Capital Management, which manages three value-oriented hedge funds. Mr. Tilson is also the co-founder of Value Investor Insight, an investment newsletter.
Mr. Tilson has co-authored two books, The Art of Value Investing: How the World's Best Investors Beat the Market (2013) and More Mortgage Meltdown: 6 Ways to Profit in These Bad Times (2009), was one of the authors of Poor Charlie’s Almanack, the definitive book on Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman Charlie Munger, and has written for Forbes, the Financial Times, Kiplinger’s, the Motley Fool and TheStreet.com. He was featured in two 60 Minutes segments in December 2008 about the housing crisis (which won an Emmy) and in March 2015 about Lumber Liquidators. He served for two years on the Board of Directors of Cutter & Buck, which designs and markets upscale sportswear, until the company was sold in early 2007.
Mr. Tilson received an MBA with High Distinction from the Harvard Business School, where he was elected a Baker Scholar (top 5% of class), and graduated magna cum laude from Harvard College, with a bachelor’s degree in Government.
Mr. Tilson spent much of his childhood in Tanzania and Nicaragua (his parents are both educators, were among the first couples to meet and marry in the Peace Corps, and have retired in Kenya). Consequently, Mr. Tilson is involved with a number of charities focused on education reform and Africa. For his philanthropic work, he received the 2008 John C. Whitehead Social Enterprise Award from the Harvard Business School Club of Greater New York. He is a member and past Chairman of the Manhattan chapter of the Young Presidents’ Organization. Mr. Tilson lives in Manhattan with his wife and three teenage daughters.
CFA Institute is a global community of more than 100,000 investment professionals working to build an investment industry where investors’ interests come first, financial markets function at their best, and economies grow.
Brian Gilmartin, is a portfolio manager at Trinity Asset Management, a firm he founded in May, 1995, catering to individual investors and institutions that werent getting the attention and service deserved, from larger firms. Brian started in the business as a fixed-income / credit analyst, with a Chicago broker-dealer, and then worked at Stein Roe & Farnham in Chicago, from 1992 - 1995, before striking out on his own and managing equity and balanced accounts for clients. Brian has a BSBA (Finance) from Xavier University, Cincinnati, Ohio, (1982) and an MBA (Finance) from Loyola University, Chicago, January, 1985. The CFA was awarded in 1994. Brian has been fortunate enough to write for the TheStreet.com from 2000 to 2012, and then the WallStreet AllStars from August 2011, to Spring, 2012. Brian also wrote for Minyanville.com, and has been quoted in numerous publications including the Wall Street Journal.
Chris DeMuth Jr. is the founder of Rangeley Capital LLC. Rangeley is an investment firm that focuses on event driven, value-oriented investment opportunities. Rangeley Capital and his value investing forum, Sifting the World (StW), search the world for misplaced bets. Rangeley exploits them for its investors and then Mr. DeMuth writes about them on StW.
I focus on writing about individual stocks, frequently in the financial industry. I work as a mid-level executive in the insurance industry on the portfolio management side. I'm an experienced stock investor, and I'm eager to share my industry expertise and what I've learned about investing with other Seeking Alpha users.
I write The Winters Report, an independent equity research publication on US banks. Contact me at WintersReport@gmail.com or follow me on Twitter (@HarvardWinters). Previously I worked as a financial services investment banker, at Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan and various middle-market investment banks. I received an MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business in 1993.
I am a 43 year veteran of Wall Street. My first 26 years were spent on the buy-side as an institutional money manager. I have spent the last 13 years as a sell-side strategist. I am a life long contrarian who finds it easy to take positions quite apart from the crowd. I am most comfortable with my forecasts when my macro and technical analysis are in sync and when my views are at odds with the consensus. I've always been fascinated by the behavioral aspects of investing. Years of observing investor behavior has led me to the conclusion that investor psychology may be the most powerful emotional force in the universe, more powerful than love or hate. It causes otherwise rational beings to make some very irrational decisions. I think every investor should read Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds by Charles MacKay.
AdvisorShares is a leading provider of actively managed exchanged-traded funds (ETFs), offering a diversified and transparent suite of core and alternative strategies. AdvisorShares provides educational support to help financial advisors and investors understand the benefits of actively managed ETFs and their underlying investment strategies.
Brad Thomas is a research analyst and he currently writes weekly for Forbes and Seeking Alpha where he maintains research on many publicly-listed REITs. In addition, Thomas is the Senior Analyst at iREIT Forbes and Editor of the Forbes Real Estate Investor, a monthly subscription-based newsletter.
Thomas has also been featured in Forbes Magazine, Kiplinger’s, US News & World Report, Money, NPR, Institutional Investor, GlobeStreet, and Fox Business. He was the #1 contributing analyst on Seeking Alpha in 2014 (as ranked by TipRanks) and he is currently writing a book on the legendary investor Donald Trump.
Thomas has co-authored a book (The Intelligent REIT Investor) that is available on Amazon.
Thomas received a Bachelor of Science degree in Business/Economics from Presbyterian College where he played basketball. He resides in South Carolina with his wife and kids.
Managing partner at Sand Hill East (www.sandhilleast.net), a VC advisory/investment firm specializing in aiding early stage technology companies.
Started career at Goldman Sachs as research analyst. Worked 10 years on the buyside primarily at Moore Capital and offshoot Pia Capital.
MetalMiner currently ranks as the largest metals publication in the United States according to third party ranking sites. Geared toward industrial metal procurement professionals, MetalMiner has attracted a wide audience in the finance community as well as a global following. MetalMiner principals have appeared on FoxBusiness.com, MSNBC, NPR Marketplace, BBC Radio among others. The team has also received coverage in The Christian Science Monitor, Forbes, American Metal Market, American Iron and Steel Institute, Automotive Industry Action Guide, among many others. The team's principals have extensive global metals sourcing and trading experience having worked for consulting powerhouses Andersen and Deloitte Consulting and leading trading companies such as Stemcor and Glencore. Updated 14 times a week, MetalMiner continues to grow and attract an audience everywhere.
2nd Market Capital Advisory specializes in the analysis and trading of real estate securities. Through a selective process and consideration of market dynamics, we aim to construct portfolios for rising streams of dividend income and capital appreciation.I am an investment adviser representative of 2nd Market Capital Advisory Corporation.
I am a CPA, CFE and have a BA in finance. I don't like to lose money.
If there are any bank stocks you would like to have regular quarterly/semi-annual coverage on let me know, I add a lot of names throughout the year but want to provide regular coverage for interested readers.
Chief Economist for Natixis North America and Global Head of Cross Asset Research
Expertise in international management. Currently oversee a team of 15 strategists based in New York, Paris and London. The team provides high quality global macro research on a wide array of products.
Specialized in a wide range of research technics and global macro investing. Created and expanded the cross asset research team at Natixis
Expertise in global macro research, international economics, fixed income, equity and commodity markets. Responsible for the consistency of the macro scenario and the generation of trade ideas.
Experience in institutional investors, hedge funds and corporate relationship.
Regular appearances in financial Medias and author of several economic books: Sortir de l’Euro: une idee dangereuse (2011) ; La Renaissance Americaine (2012)
Mercenary Trader (www.mercenarytrader.com) was created by traders, for traders. We are aggressive swing traders who routinely combine fundamentals, technicals and sentiment with deep awareness of global macro and rigorous analysis of individual equities.
See all of our content, including free educational materials on the theory and practice of trading, at www.mercenarytrader.com
Whether you are a large or small firm, GeoInvesting will cater to your needs and create a sound process for corporate diligence. Our specialty is Portfolio Protection – in fact, every aspect of what we do boils down to various ways that your M&A process or investment portfolio can be safeguarded against red flags.
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We actually do not limit ourselves to any specific group? We have worked at great lengths with:
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There is really no one that we can’t work with since we’ve covered just about every facet of the due diligence process, whether it be on-the-ground or “through the files.” We can even tailor our services to your specific requirements.
We have a retail solution for everyone – the long investor, the short investor, the pump and dump investor and the every day trader that is interested in the micro cap arena. We’ve shown that we can overcome the challenges posed by any market environment, quickly seizing investment and trading opportunities as they arise. Because of this, our Premium members have been able to enjoy above-average returns on our ideas. Our solutions enable us to cater to what matters to you the most.
Do you want access to reports that can convey the proper valuation of equities, reports that can immediately convince the market that these valuations are warranted? Do you want information arbitrage that allows you to be among the first to take action based on the intel? Do you need daily ideas, some of which have proven to be some of the most rewarding calls to action that the GeoTeam has offered? Would you like to follow our GeoBargains and select trades? Or do you just need to be part of an exclusive twitter following that receives alerts before the rest of the market?
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In evaluating investment opportunities, I consider a company's management, products, customer relationships, competitive positioning, financials, the macroeconomic climate, social media response and other sources.
I arrive at my own conclusions, tuning out the noise of the marketplace. My investment choices are typically based on a holding period of at least two to three years. Influences include Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Howard Marks, Joel Greenblatt, Steve Romick and Warren Buffett. My academic studies were in literature and psychology; I've supplemented this with extensive reading in business, economics and investing.
Seeking Alpha PRO is our premium service for serious investors.
PRO subscribers receive early access to our best long or short ideas - 20-30 articles a week, as selected by our PRO editorial team. They also receive exclusive access to our archive of over 15,000 professional level ideas and research, focused primarily on single equity articles.
We will use this account to publish announcements related to PRO, as well as our PRO Weekly Digest, a new series that will be made available first to PRO subscribers but then to all readers interested in learning about PRO or reading ideas from some of our top authors.
If you're interested in PRO, check out this page for more details. If you'd like to get in touch with our sales team, contact proaccess at seekingalpha.com, and if you'd like to reach our editorial team, write to pro-editors at seekingalpha.com.
Prescience Point's founders have over 25 years of combined Wall Street experience, and a significant track-record of successful short recommendations.
The sole focus of our company is to conduct comprehensive fundamental research, and uncover companies that are engaging in fraudulent or misleading business practices. We partner with leading hedge funds, private investigators, accountants, lawyers and industry experts to conduct our research process. We take an activist role to communicate our findings to regulators, shareholders, and other public constituents.
Our firm was founded on the belief that investors deserve full and complete honesty, transparency and accountability from corporations they invest with. We set high expectations and standards for our research process and opinions, and strive to achieve the respect from our readers for our integrity, intellectual honesty, analytical rigor, and accuracy of our conclusions.
James Altucher was the managing director of Formula Capital, an asset management firm and fund of hedge funds. He's written five books on investing: Trade Like a Hedge Fund, Trade Like Warren Buffett, SuperCash, The Forever Portfolio, and his latest book, The Choose Yourself Guide To Wealth. He currently writes at Jamesaltucher.com and has released a newsletter, The Altucher Report.
Mr. Altucher is the founder of Stockpickr.com, a social network for finance that had millions of unique visitors per month when it was sold to TheStreet.com in 2007. He has written over 200 columns for The Financial Times and has written for TheStreet.com, Forbes, Yahoo Finance, Fidelity.com, and other publications. He was also the founder of a web services firm, Reset Inc, which he sold in 1998, at which time he became a partner at VC firm, 212 Ventures/Investcorp. Mr. Altucher regularly appears on CNBC, Fox News, Fox Business, and CNN Radio, and is also in his spare time a nationally ranked chess master. Mr. Altucher received his BA at Cornell University and attended graduate school for computer science at Carnegie Mellon University.
You can follow him on twitter @jaltucher.
Stephen Aniston is an investment advisor who focuses on the CBOE VIX futures market and related exchange traded products. He runs VIXCONTANGO.com - the best investment analysis service of the VIX futures market and is a sub-advisor to MRPAX, a managed short volatility mutual fund. Before becoming an investment advisor, Mr. Aniston was a technology manager and software architect with over 10 years of experience in the financial industry. He was Technical Architect for the Merchant Bank at Goldman Sachs and Technology Vice President for the Investment Bank at the Royal Bank of Scotland. He also had stints at hedge fund investment firms (commonly called fund-of-funds) K2 Advisors and Ivy Asset Management. He graduated from Stanford University with an engineering degree in the late 90s
I am Seeking Alpha's CEO and Editor-in-Chief. My love for the stock markets goes back to when I was a kid. Who else remembers combing through the stock quotes at the back of the business section of your local paper?
I joined Seeking Alpha in 2006 and launched Wall Street Breakfast and Market Currents, our top-of-class short-form breaking news for investors. In 2010 I became editor-in-chief and in 2015 I became CEO.
I live in Jerusalem with my wife and a bunch of exceptional kids. Most days, you'll find me making the commute from Jerusalem to Raanana. Occasionally I get to work from my home-office, from where I keep an eye on the beautiful Judean Hills.
To contact me, send me a direct message, or email me at firstname.lastname@example.org.