Penn Bioinvestor

Investing in the Obesity Drug Basket

This Micheal Murphy guy is a joke. He kept pumping the stocks he own. He predicted early this year DNDN will go to $360/share very soon, which translate into about 40 billion market capital for this small biotech. (Shocked)

I just asked him yesterday if he will allow me to sell all my DNDN shares to him at $180/share, so he can make handsomely 2X on it.

I also challenged his pumping on ARNA: Safe? If doctors are looking for a low-risk solution, they might be better off prescribing diet and exercise changes than trying to eke out an additional 6- to 8-pound loss for a 200-pound person on lorcaserin (ARNA drug). LOL.

Put in this way, if a 200 pound person take ARNA's "wonderful' drug, by paying tens of thousands of dollars in two years, he shed off 4-6 pounds! Toxicology 101: EVERY DRUG IS TOXIC. why not take some diet, which is much safer. Game pretty much is over for ARNA, period.

I was shocked by his statement ARNA drug can be marketed together with Phen. Lack of basic drug approval knowledge: FDA will NEVER allow any such drug without all proper clinical trials.

BioMed News Bytes: Arena, ImmunoCellular, YM Bio

Totally agree with you, Mike. I bought VVUS at 3.5 early April, still holding. This is the winner. BTW, just want to stop by and say thank you for your research reports.
On Sep 21 10:07 AM Mike Havrilla wrote:

> I think VVUS has emerged as the front runner with ARNA / OREX both
> chasing. Will now be interesting to watch the deal flow for this
> trio of weight loss / obesity plays as they prepare for FDA submissions.
> Only wish I had more spare cash to invest in VVUS back in March when
> it was around 3 bucks:
> seekingalpha.com/artic...

Two Positive Notes for Arena Pharmaceuticals

This Michael Murphy predicted DNDN will go to $360/share very soon early this year. I just asked him if he will allow me to sell all my DNDN shares to him at $180/share, so he can make 2X on it.

What a great investor, LOL.

Anyway, You are a lot more objective than him, he is a disaster.

On Sep 19 01:34 PM Ruthanne Williams Roussel wrote:

> Certainly, I have an agenda, and I'll state it right here. My agenda
> is that I have a big beef with that Michael Murphy guy -- I understand
> he recommended ARNA but I didn't see it myself, so I may be wrong
> there. But my beef is that like many people who grew up listening
> to AM radio in the 70's, I can't stand that sappy song about the
> pony who got lost in the blizzard and the girl who went running "Wildfire."
>
>
> Seriously, I don't own any of these obesity stocks and I try to call
> 'em as I see 'em. I have also been known to modify my views over
> the months.

Two Positive Notes for Arena Pharmaceuticals

I just checked your previous posts, looks you are always an ARNA pumper, and you kept bashing VVUS, although tried your best to make you looks like fair and objective.

As to myself? I am a trader, never fall in love with any stocks and make big bucks all the time. You need to wake up from your fantasy. Game over for ARNA, period.

Two Positive Notes for Arena Pharmaceuticals

Looks you have an agenda to post here? Doesn't looks like you are speaking the fact ARNA drug only produce merely 3.1% and 2.2% weight loss in two years!

Safe? Eat food a few cal less everyday will produce a much better weight loss. LOL.

Vivus: A One Trick Pony

What I dis-agree with you is that ARNA and OREX. VVUS success mean their failure, and make their drugs looks like a dummy pill. Whether OREX and ARNA so-so experimental drugs can get FDA approval is now a big question mark. Any physician with moral standard shouldn't prescribe such product to waste tax payer/individual money on something can only reduce a few pounds while costing tens of thousand of dollars.

Vivus: A One Trick Pony

Nice article, but the title is very misleading. Should be VVUS a nice buy-out target with price valued about $20/share. I agree with you, VVUS still have big upside room.

Vivus: Obesity Experimental Drug Has Promising Outlook

Where are all those bashers? Come out and check the big day for VVUS.

Vivus: Obesity Experimental Drug Has Promising Outlook

Where are all those bashers???

Arena's Edge in the Obesity Drug Race

Good insight and right on the point. This article is plain wrong and misleading to investors.


On Jul 26 03:08 PM justwannamakemoney wrote:

> Wow this author has got it wrong or is just trying to get out of
> a losing Arena position.
>
> First let me say that most of the research in OREX and ARNA are biasis

Arena's Edge in the Obesity Drug Race

I think you should check facts before you post blogs. You should do enough homework before you posted here. A lot of facts in your article are wrong. Both VVUS and OREX drug are combination of two generic drugs, and VVUS is by far the most efficacious among all three.

As to side-effect, OREX has the most side-effects and largest drop-out ratio.

All three compounds are not perfect so far.

Vivus: Obesity Experimental Drug Has Promising Outlook

Looked a bunch of ARNA fans posted comments here. Thanks for Philly Dan's comment, although I disagree with his opinion, but which is detailed and thoughtful. He did his homework. As to ARNA, I have no interest to bash. Your money, your decision. Don't regret if later it turned out you picked the wrong stock. I presented the chance to pick the winner to you, which is VVUS. I have comment on Philly Dan's comments before. For people not aware of that, here is for you:
Just to point out VVUS's obesity drug is far superior than ARNA.

Let the fact to speak out for themselves (ARNA vs. VVUS)

lost at least 5% weight:
arna 66.40 arna placebo 32.10%
vvus 66% vvus placebo 15%

lost at least 10% weight:
arna 36.20% arna placebo 13.60%
vvus 41% vvus placebo 7%

lost at least 15% weight
arna no data
vvus 19% vvus placebo 2%

retention after 1 year:
arna 55%
vvus 70%

those results speak for themselves.

ADA Meeting 2009: Novel Diabetes Therapies Presented

You forgot an important drug candidate from Incyte:
Results Presented at the ADA 69th Scientific Sessions Demonstrate that INCB13739, Incyte’s Oral 11beta-HSD1 Inhibitor, Significantly Improves Glycemic Control, Insulin Sensitivity and Total Cholesterol in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes

A Biotech Triple Play: Dendreon, BioCryst and Arena

Let the fact to speak out for themselves (ARNA vs. VVUS)

lost at least 5% weight:
arna 66.40 arna placebo 32.10%
vvus 66% vvus placebo 15%

lost at least 10% weight:
arna 36.20% arna placebo 13.60%
vvus 41% vvus placebo 7%

lost at least 15% weight
arna no data
vvus 19% vvus placebo 2%

retention after 1 year:
arna 55%
vvus 70%

those results speak for themselves

A Biotech Triple Play: Dendreon, BioCryst and Arena

Eat less and more healthy is the safest way apparently. Why should people spend a lot of extra money simply to lose a few pounds by buying ARNA's "wonderful" drug which only produce less than 5% weight loss?


On Jun 07 02:02 PM PhillyDan wrote:

> CTIC: I could not disagree with you more about Arena's LOR and it's
> market potential and FDA approvability. Suggest you read Vivus'
> and Arena's PRs from the ADA. Both show very good results and safety
> profiles. Arena's Bloom study had over 3 times as many subjects
> as the Vivus Equate study and the time period was longer.
>
> As you will see if you read the press releases, 66% of subjects 'completing'
> (operative word is completing) the study lost >5% of their body weight;
> 39% lost >10% of their body weight. About 75% completed the two-year
> study. Vivus had similar results with about 70% completing the study.
> Qnexa had more people drop out due to adverse effects vs. LOR.<br/>
>
> So do some better DD before making incorrect and inaccurate comments.
> At this point in time, I would say that both Vivus and Arena have
> approvable obesity drugs with each having large market potential.
> Orexigen's Contrave could also be a player.
>
> A key point to remember is not how quickly you lose the weight, but
> how safely you lose the weight and maintain that weight loss over
> time.