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After 12 years and six months, the Dow has produced a measly 0.78% annual return, dividends included. $SPY http://lostdecades.com Jul 8, 2012
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Moody's Aaa weekly rate hits new cycle low, lowest since the 1950s. Intrinsic value of the S&P now 2275. http://brockvalue.com Jun 26, 2012
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Market mired in gloom, 41% below fair value. Upside beckons. $SPY $DIA http://brockvalue.com Jun 20, 2012
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Peter Brock on The Intrinsic Value Of The S&P 500 (April 27, 2012) I compare BV to other valuation metrics all the...
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untrusting investor on The Intrinsic Value Of The S&P 500 (April 27, 2012) Maybe one way to look at valuations but way way...
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- The Intrinsic Value Of The S&P 500 (April 27, 2012) (2 Comments)
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Lost Decades: The Performance Of The Dow After 12 Years, Six Months
The Dow Jones topped at 11,723 in early 2000. At the end of May this year, the Dow closed at 12,880. Add in dividends and subtract inflation, and that works out to 0.78% per year.
(click to enlarge)
For more, please visit lostdecades.com
The Intrinsic Value Of The S&P 500 (June 22, 2012)
With US GDP at $15.46 trillion and Moody's Aaa bonds yielding 3.64%, the intrinsic value of the S&P 500 index as measured by BV is 2275.64.
By comparison, the S&P closed at 1335.02 on June 15, 41% below fair value.
(click to enlarge)
Understanding Brock Value charts
The red and green lines found on many of the BV charts on this site are 0.33 standard deviations over and under BV, my calculation of fair value. These lines fence in the normal range of the market. When the market is above the red line, ten-year returns tend to be lower than average. When the market is below the green line, ten-year returns tend to be higher than average.
(click to enlarge)
The red and green lines are one-third of a standard deviation from BV, the white line.
For more about Brock Value, please visit my site.
The Intrinsic Value Of The S&P 500 (June 15, 2012)
With US GDP at $15.46 trillion and Moody's Aaa bonds yielding 3.67%, the intrinsic value of the S&P 500 index as measured by BV is 2257.04.
By comparison, the S&P closed at 1342.84 on June 15, 41% below fair value.
(click to enlarge)
Understanding Brock Value charts
The red and green lines found on many of the BV charts on this site are 0.33 standard deviations over and under BV. These lines fence in the normal range of the market. When the market is above the red line, ten-year returns tend to be lower than average. When the market is below the green line, ten-year returns tend to be higher than average.
(click to enlarge)
The red and green lines are one-third of a standard deviation from BV, the white line.
For more about Brock Value, please visit my site.