Peter Cooper

Global Markets in Review: Is the Risk Trade Back On?

That double-top in the Dow at 10,000 has alarm bells ringing in my head as it should for any student of the black charts, see:
arabianmoney.net/2009/.../

Wall Street: Dumb as It Ever Was

We all run out of nerve at a market top, but the red flag is waving to the bulls now, see: arabianmoney.net/2009/.../


On Nov 07 11:40 PM David Van Knapp wrote:

> You dump all over prognosticators, yet you are one yourself. Just
> looking at your last article (from late July), you had this to say:
> "Now that the market has run up some 46% since the last Running (away)
> of the Sheep, the wooly stampede has reversed direction. Will the
> carnage be just as bad this time? History says yes..."
>
> How did that work out for you? The market made it up to 60%+, is
> still at +58% and may go higher. (By the way, I have a statistical
> and scientific background too.) Maybe you should lighten up on the
> prognosticators--if you want peace from CNBC, turn off the damn TV.

Wall Street: Dumb as It Ever Was

And they completely missed the red flag now flying over US consumer spending, which is supposed to be 70% of the economy, see: arabianmoney.net/2009/.../

Positioning for a Bond Rally

Nobody ever lost money in the long term by betting against central banks propping up their currencies. They always fail so this is a sure fire trend situation, see: arabianmoney.net/2009/.../

Also, what happens to stock prices when the Fed can not cut rates as it usually does in a crash? The crash will be deeper. But then if rates are not cut then bonds will not rally - or at least not by the same amount as if rates were cut. Could this lead to a bond crisis?

Elliot Wave: The Dollar Is Set for a Major Rally

The Dow has put in a double-top at 10,000 and it looks downhill from here - sure that has implications all round, see:
arabianmoney.net/2009/.../

Riding the Rails: Why BNI Was Berkshire's Best Bet - And Vintage Buffett

No he has got it wrong this time and overpaid in cash that would be better deployed later, see: arabianmoney.net/2009/.../

Gold Is Not in a Bull Market

Of course, gold is in a bull market - it is not yet in a price spike however, and that leaves plenty of upside for the patient investor and probably quite a bit for a day trader too, see:
arabianmoney.net/2009/.../

Gold Soars to New Highs

No sign yet of an obvious spike on the gold price chart - there is room for a short-term setback but the next year should deliver some exceptional returns, for a full analysis see:
arabianmoney.net/2009/.../

Investors Fled out of Leveraged ETFs at Exactly the Wrong Time

Could not agree more, I have gone into the scale of this opportunity in more detail on my website, which also has some interesting comments from those who disagree:
arabianmoney.net/2009/.../

Global Markets in Review: Reversal in Financial Markets

The Fed has no room to cut interest rates in a market crash, so this will tend to exaggerate the downturn, see this analysis for a full explanation: arabianmoney.net/2009/.../

To profit from this extremely gloomy immediate scenario there are some excellent trading opportunities to be had in short ETFs, as this post on my blog explains more fully: arabianmoney.net/2009/.../

Equities Update: Weekly Loss Across the Board

You know when you give up trying to make this call it will happen!

What Goldman Learned from a Trip to China

So China keeps oil prices high and that keeps its biggest export customers in recession, or back in recession, due to high oil prices. Decoupling is one thing, reality is another.

The Greatest Depression Is Coming

The bailout cash has produced an unsustainable bubble in global stock markets and when that bursts we will be on to phase two (or is it three?) of this recession, see:
arabianmoney.net/2009/.../

Why Gold, If Deflation Is the Threat?

Would you stay in cash after a crash? Surely the dollar would be the next shoe to drop after a crash, and precious metals would therefore be the currency of choice? But what happens if the currency crisis is the cause of the crash? I suppose then precious metals would benefit instantly and you would not have the opportunity to short the market and then reinvest. If only life were simple, and of course we have not actually had a crash yet - where is it?

Short ETFs: Time to Buy - Not Sell

Short ETFs had a good week.