Peter Cooper

Richard Russell: Downturn Will Be 'Vicious'

Dow Theory looks spot on - and just look at the dollar rally. This is the start of the stock market and commodities crash. You only need to look at what is happening right in front of you - it is seldom this easy, see:
arabianmoney.net/2009/.../

Jim Rogers: Lessons from a Legend

Is his timing off again? If you look at the US dollar rally this implies lower commodity prices and this is what is happening right now along with a stock market correction, see:
arabianmoney.net/2009/.../
You don't need a forecaster to tell you what is happening before your eyes - but true people are often blind to this as well...

Gold should be at the heart of a new global reserve currency

As the price of gold increases to much higher levels then the ability of market manipulators to control the gold price will decrease. But conversely stability and management go together, and the problem now is that central banks have lost the plot and their ability to control the future exchange rate, see: arabianmoney.net/2009/.../


On Nov 19 03:35 AM Kathy2009 wrote:

> It all makes sense to me to use gold and silver to value currency
> or at least somehow peg finances to something stable, but how stable
> is it? If several large entities sell of a lot of gold at the same
> time then the price of gold plummets. Then of course either gold
> goes out of fashion and plummets some more or these same entities
> then buy back the gold and the new lower price and play the same
> game again. Now of course I would wonder what currency these players
> would want to exchange it for, but the U. S. Dollar makes sense.
> By buying up a lot of dollars the dollar also gets stronger, making
> it even more profitable to play this game or just then exchange the
> dollars or other currency they have exchanged the gold for for other
> commondities, like oil for instance or whatever commodities may be
> scarse at that time. The big guy can and will always be able to
> manipulate unfortunately.

10 Reasons the Equity Rally Is Over

Emerging markets are even more overstretched!


On Dec 08 09:31 PM Tempo dulu wrote:

> The rally was warranted but now US stocks are fully valued. Time
> to swich to emerging markets. Why invest in stocks in the US where
> GDP growth is lethargic if you can invest in stocks in countries
> with GDP growth in excess of 5%? I know where the earnings potential
> is and that's where I'm headed.

10 Reasons the Equity Rally Is Over

The market is now falling, the dollar rallying and gold dropping - the rally is very overstretched as 'headwinds' remain like sub-par growth over a protracted period and a huge debt mountain. Company profits look vulnerable to falling revenues, greater competition and rising interest rates are still to come. Shorting the market makes sense:
arabianmoney.net/2009/.../

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

RBS debt mountain totals $460bn, a staggering sum - how is the UK government going to pay that off? Expected losses are $98bn according to the UK Treasury report, see:
arabianmoney.net/2009/.../

Markets in 'Overall Corrective Phase'

Clive Maud's brilliant technical analysis got the dollar correction and gold fall right last week, and now he is down for a big stock market fall, see: arabianmoney.net/2009/.../

Emerging Markets Aren't a Bubble

Ask whether something is a bubble and it usually is one.

Trading Week Outlook: December 7 - 11, 2009

A dollar rally is not a good thing for stocks or commodity prices. And with the stock market rally very overbought there is the strong possibility of a move sharply downwards.

Dubai Faces Bottom in 2010 but Is Still a Great Future Buy

And who is pumping and dumping? These articles do not carry that sort of weight!


On Dec 06 09:28 AM YoYoMama wrote:

> Sounds like a pump and dump to me.

Dubai Faces Bottom in 2010 but Is Still a Great Future Buy

Would the bond holders sue in the US if they checked up on what they had signed and found that they explicitly did not have a government guarantee? I doubt they would have a case. Yet the documentation on the Nakheel bonds is very clear and explicit. They are granted against specific property in Dubai, namely the massive Waterfront site. You have to differentiate between loans with a sovereign guarantee, and non-course bonds linked to particular projects. Those who bought the bonds without looking have only themselves to blame. The financial system is based on legal documentation and due diligence. Due ignorance of the law is no excuse.


On Dec 06 08:37 AM knight wrote:

> Peter,
> I have followed your articles for some time now but what you are
> saying here is just plain silly. I live in Dubai and I am also invested
> in Dubai. If they choose to default on their Nakheel bonds all of
> Dubai World defaults. Most people will treat this like a country
> default as the Government is the sole owner of Dubai World. Your
> FDI would simply dry up. The way they have handled this whole situation
> has been irresponsible and deceitful. If they did this in the US
> they would be sued by their bond holders. On several different occasion
> they said they were ready and able to meet their debt obligations
> and clearly stated this on the specific Nakheel bonds. These bonds
> actually traded above face value due to the provisions in there.
> The financial system is based on trust and once that goes it takes
> years to get back. The trust is broken.

Understanding the Dollar's Reversal: Who Will Feel the Pain?

Plenty of other reasons for equities to correct at this stage after such a long rally since March. But it is far too early to say if this new dollar strength is more than a flash in the pan down which the dollar has been heading for years. I would not touch equities for many other reasons, see: arabianmoney.net/2009/.../

Why I'm (Cautiously) Optimistic About the Future

This is a modern version of Charles Dickens' Mr Macawber who always believed that something would turn up. It is no way to approach investing! You need to have your feet on the ground and not a head in the stars. The immediate outlook for stocks is a nasty bear market correction and the Dubai story is a wake-up call, see:
arabianmoney.net/2009/.../

Natural Gas: Powering the Dubai Overshoot

Dubai seems to be the first city/government in the world to face up to the impossibility of keeping on borrowing. Is it ahead on this as well as building the tallest building in the world? Atoning for mistakes, taking a hit, having a crisis - is this not how markets actually work? Stacking up more and more debt like the rest of the world is just going to make the final crisis bigger

Is Dubai's Default a Black Swan Event?

A Black Swan yes because the $3.5 billion Dubai World debt in December was widely expected to be repaid and it will now not be repaid. $60 billion is a big hole to fill for the global banks who will be presumably now told that they are getting cents on the dollar and will have to wait for that. Indeed we do not know what they will be told yet, hence this is a Black Swan. But this also has much wider implications for global bond markets. No major financial crisis in history has ever ended without a bond crash, this is the start of a failure of government bond markets, is it not? No wonder Rothchild's is advising Dubai on this now, for more see:

arabianmoney.net/2009/.../