Is Dubai's Default a Black Swan Event? [View article]
A Black Swan yes because the $3.5 billion Dubai World debt in December was widely expected to be repaid and it will now not be repaid. $60 billion is a big hole to fill for the global banks who will be presumably now told that they are getting cents on the dollar and will have to wait for that. Indeed we do not know what they will be told yet, hence this is a Black Swan. But this also has much wider implications for global bond markets. No major financial crisis in history has ever ended without a bond crash, this is the start of a failure of government bond markets, is it not? No wonder Rothchild's is advising Dubai on this now, for more see:
Top 12 Indicators That the Economy Is Still Bad [View article]
If you want the Macro picture of global output and trade have a look at these charts which overlay the position today onto the 1930s: arabianmoney.net/2009/.../ The deficits are bigger than in the 30s and the decline in trade is steeper - watch out below!
12 Stocks in Focus for the Obama Era [View article]
Marc Faber is still hot on commodities but he thinks President Obama is a disaster for the US, hear the latest comments from this brilliant commentator on this post: arabianmoney.net/2009/.../
Why It's Time to Be Invested in the New Recession [View article]
We have hardly started to see the financial crisis roll out into the real economy yet - but that is hardly a good reason to think that it is not going to happen! This is all wishful thinking - good companies will survive a shake-out but their share prices will fall along with everybody else...The DJ is far too high for a recession! If you don't get that you should not be investing in stocks.
Is Dubai's Default a Black Swan Event? [View article]
arabianmoney.net/2009/.../
Top 12 Indicators That the Economy Is Still Bad [View article]
arabianmoney.net/2009/.../
The deficits are bigger than in the 30s and the decline in trade is steeper - watch out below!
12 Stocks in Focus for the Obama Era [View article]
arabianmoney.net/2009/.../
A Bull Market That Few Are Buying [View article]
arabianmoney.net/2009/.../
Nothing Suggests We're Anywhere Near the Bottom [View article]
arabianmoney.net/2009/.../
Why This Rally Is Unsustainable [View article]
Why It's Time to Be Invested in the New Recession [View article]