Peter Cooper

Global Markets in Review: Is the Risk Trade Back On?

That double-top in the Dow at 10,000 has alarm bells ringing in my head as it should for any student of the black charts, see:
arabianmoney.net/2009/.../

TV Ads for Commodity ETFs: A Worrying Sign

Yes I would fully recommend the DVDs of the Agora event.

As for commenting that is what I do for a living as well as a bit of investing so I will carry on doing both!

But I agree with the argument about it being impossible to call a bubble top - they are far easier to see after the event. All the same the final spike is usually the give away - and I don't actually see one in gold yet - looking back oil was a spike last summer. Commodities are not a homogenous asset class - and that means some ETFs will be rising while others are falling.

Commodities, Global Markets

Shorting the S&P looks the obvious trade coming up soon - or I suppose buying bonds, see:
arabianmoney.net/2009/.../

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

The bulls are full of it. Just have a look at this set of charts comparing today with the 30s - you can see where we are heading:
arabianmoney.net/2009/.../

Poisoning the Green Shoots

Actually the recent surge in oil prices more than compensates for all the bailout and stimulus spending, so it has all been wasted - the recession will intensify as a consequence, see:
arabianmoney.net/2009/.../

Market's Latest Run Appears Poised for Reversal

Yes the prevailing wisdom is usually wrong, see:

arabianmoney.net/2009/.../

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Surely the GM bankruptcy is going to be the party pooper! You just have to look around for the 600 pound gorilla sitting in the corner. Yes the police have been called and this party is about to end, see:
arabianmoney.net/2009/.../