Peter Cooper

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

RBS debt mountain totals $460bn, a staggering sum - how is the UK government going to pay that off? Expected losses are $98bn according to the UK Treasury report, see:
arabianmoney.net/2009/.../

Trading Week Outlook: December 7 - 11, 2009

A dollar rally is not a good thing for stocks or commodity prices. And with the stock market rally very overbought there is the strong possibility of a move sharply downwards.

Why I'm (Cautiously) Optimistic About the Future

This is a modern version of Charles Dickens' Mr Macawber who always believed that something would turn up. It is no way to approach investing! You need to have your feet on the ground and not a head in the stars. The immediate outlook for stocks is a nasty bear market correction and the Dubai story is a wake-up call, see:
arabianmoney.net/2009/.../

Is Monday the New Rally Day?

Risk must be very high now with the Dow at 51% retracement to the March low - all it needs is a trigger like an ETrade collapse... the 1930 parallel of a 52% retracement followed by an 88% slump in the Dow is not beyond possibility with p/e ratios near 150! The outlook for profits over the next few years is just noway big enough to justify these valuations, and liquidity is like fuel, it runs out...

Are Stocks Making a Major Top?

I see Cazenove partners are selling out for $1.6 billion. For the City of London this is surely the ultimate in insider trades and ought to be a warning that the rush to the exit can not be far away, see:
arabianmoney.net/2009/.../
The market downturn will happen, Cazenove partners want to be in cash when that happens. Do they know the markets better than most of us? Of course!

Global Markets in Review: Is the Risk Trade Back On?

That double-top in the Dow at 10,000 has alarm bells ringing in my head as it should for any student of the black charts, see:
arabianmoney.net/2009/.../

Wall Street: Dumb as It Ever Was

We all run out of nerve at a market top, but the red flag is waving to the bulls now, see: arabianmoney.net/2009/.../


On Nov 07 11:40 PM David Van Knapp wrote:

> You dump all over prognosticators, yet you are one yourself. Just
> looking at your last article (from late July), you had this to say:
> "Now that the market has run up some 46% since the last Running (away)
> of the Sheep, the wooly stampede has reversed direction. Will the
> carnage be just as bad this time? History says yes..."
>
> How did that work out for you? The market made it up to 60%+, is
> still at +58% and may go higher. (By the way, I have a statistical
> and scientific background too.) Maybe you should lighten up on the
> prognosticators--if you want peace from CNBC, turn off the damn TV.

Wall Street: Dumb as It Ever Was

And they completely missed the red flag now flying over US consumer spending, which is supposed to be 70% of the economy, see: arabianmoney.net/2009/.../

Equities Update: Weekly Loss Across the Board

You know when you give up trying to make this call it will happen!

Marc Faber: Equities Safer than Dollars

MF is also now saying stocks are due for a 20% correction and that the dollar will rally. His longer view is inflation and over three years or so. At times this does look a bit like an astrologer covering all possible outcomes.

One Year Later and the Worst Is Still to Come

Thank you for your kind thoughts!


On Sep 17 12:38 PM djk! wrote:

> Peter says,
> "But anybody who read the commentary on this website a year ago will
> know that it was saying exactly the same thing again a year ago,
> and those who chose instead to trust their professional advisers
> are still counting the cost.
>
> Down will come equities, commodities including oil and gold, and
> real estate. Bonds should have a last hurrah and the dollar rally.
> So why still hold some gold? This is a hedge with a limited downside
> and the asset class of the future."
>
> have you really been saying this stuff for a year? I thought you
> started on 4/13/09. You and your socket puppets missed the greatest
> rally in a dozen years. So yeah, why not short the market? You advised
> to short the market back on 4/13, boy! what great advice. Do you
> have people that actually pay you for your advice? Oh well, your
> rating continues to drop so people really are not all that dumb.
> Soon you'll be out of the top 100 and just a has been. The *suckers*
> have made a lot in the mean time.

Is a Crash Impending?

Very perceptive - the trouble for bears is that they have to be proven right eventually but it can be a long wait. Not necessarily that long, however, and after a 50% rally you need not be a genius to see a downturn is coming. Or will the US go to 70-80% like Shanghai? I don't see that much liquidity available. Investing now is madness and shorting common sense.

Black Monday? Sell Today as August Goes Away

Markets seem to be behaving more rationally today. Shakespeare said in one of his plays that it was better to sell three months too early than one minute too late. I think that would have left him short. Don't lose your shirt!

The Market's 'Horoscope': Downside Correction

It seems to be continuing today (Monday) and the short ETFs have gone wild, see:
finance.yahoo.com/etf/...

I think it is a ride down now until early November unless governments intervene...

Start of the Shorting Season?

Did I mention putting on short positions then? I think not.


On Aug 16 08:49 AM djk! wrote:

> I wonder how those short positions that people put in on 4/14/09
> after you declared an end to the *sucker's* rally are looking now?
> Ya think the market will "correct" enough for them to just make back
> the dough, much less a little profit? Hey Peter, predict this, Is
> it going to snow in Dubia on 12/25/09? Get it right and you might
> want to consider being a weatherman.