Peter Cooper

Dubai Faces Bottom in 2010 but Is Still a Great Future Buy

And who is pumping and dumping? These articles do not carry that sort of weight!


On Dec 06 09:28 AM YoYoMama wrote:

> Sounds like a pump and dump to me.

Dubai Faces Bottom in 2010 but Is Still a Great Future Buy

Would the bond holders sue in the US if they checked up on what they had signed and found that they explicitly did not have a government guarantee? I doubt they would have a case. Yet the documentation on the Nakheel bonds is very clear and explicit. They are granted against specific property in Dubai, namely the massive Waterfront site. You have to differentiate between loans with a sovereign guarantee, and non-course bonds linked to particular projects. Those who bought the bonds without looking have only themselves to blame. The financial system is based on legal documentation and due diligence. Due ignorance of the law is no excuse.


On Dec 06 08:37 AM knight wrote:

> Peter,
> I have followed your articles for some time now but what you are
> saying here is just plain silly. I live in Dubai and I am also invested
> in Dubai. If they choose to default on their Nakheel bonds all of
> Dubai World defaults. Most people will treat this like a country
> default as the Government is the sole owner of Dubai World. Your
> FDI would simply dry up. The way they have handled this whole situation
> has been irresponsible and deceitful. If they did this in the US
> they would be sued by their bond holders. On several different occasion
> they said they were ready and able to meet their debt obligations
> and clearly stated this on the specific Nakheel bonds. These bonds
> actually traded above face value due to the provisions in there.
> The financial system is based on trust and once that goes it takes
> years to get back. The trust is broken.

Natural Gas: Powering the Dubai Overshoot

Dubai seems to be the first city/government in the world to face up to the impossibility of keeping on borrowing. Is it ahead on this as well as building the tallest building in the world? Atoning for mistakes, taking a hit, having a crisis - is this not how markets actually work? Stacking up more and more debt like the rest of the world is just going to make the final crisis bigger

Will Gulf States Have a 'Good' Recession?

A lower dollar would boost Dubai's large tourism industry, and attract new inward investment. Not sure the appreciation of the dollar has been positive for Dubai, quite the reverse in fact.

UAE-Saudi Border Delays: Bad for Business

This has nothing to do with the ID cards which are a separate issue. They are nothing to do with securing jobs for citizens - it would be hard to do that in the UAE where we are 80% expats.

As for the 13 weeks - well 14 or 15 what does it matter?

Sucker's Rally Approaching an End

arabianmoney.net/2009/.../
Dubai has not much oil and zero tolerance for terrorism. It is a rich trading, tourism and financial hub for the Middle East - invest at current prices and you will also become rich!

Sucker's Rally Approaching an End

Last week the rally managed to continue more modestly, but I have to ask was anybody really reading the news? It looked dismal to me and I note that most of the comments seem to support my view. For an update see;
arabianmoney.net/2009/.../

Sucker's Rally Approaching an End

The traders who are taking profits from the recent rally have gotten it right. I simply find it impossible to see an upside with global trade and GDP falling at the worst rate since 1930, and actually it is worse on the data collected by JK Galbraith in 'The Great Crash 1929' - and that is the book to read for the parallels are uncanny. There is an article on my website exploring this.

Sucker's Rally Approaching an End

Many thanks to everybody for some excellent comments, almost entirely devoid of abuse which is rare on websites these days.

But I am an independent investor in a comfortable position and not a sourpuss who missed the rally - indeed it has improved my own long-term holds nicely. I am also an independent journalist building a financial comment website in the Middle East and just trying to understand what is going on in our world.

However, the parallels with 1929 are uncanny - and I think the huge slump in global trade and GDP on a scale quite unprecedented in my lifetime are the real issues here. To expect stocks to rally very much further against this headwind looks over optimistic even for the natives of America.

If you want more a more detailed comparison of the 1920s to the 2000s have a look at this item. I can not write a thesis in 400 words but this is a summary:

arabianmoney.net/2009/.../