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Peter Cooper is the editor and publisher of the ArabianMoney Investment Newsletter and website. He was formerly a partner in, sold in a private equity deal in 1996. His book 'Opportunity Dubai: Making a Fortune in the Middle East' was a best seller, and his latest... More
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Dubai Sabbatical: The Road to $5,000 Gold
  • Silver set to spike to $50 in the early New Year?
    Gold and silver prices have moved to new highs for the current bull market with gold hitting a fresh all-time high at the moment of writing above $1,425. Silver is now above $30.

    The yellow metal is the choice of investors concerned about the eurozone financial crisis and those in China worried by inflation where central bank buying is up by a factor of five this year. Perth Mint has reported speculators selling their gold and buying silver which is now rising in a spike pattern and thus offering higher rates of return.

    Moment of truth

    The ArabianMoney newsletter for December offers its subscribers a comprehensive round-up of investment opportunities and also reviews precious metal investment strategies (click here to sign-up).

    However, the core argument is that this silver price spike is a warning to investors in precious metals. We know that price spikes always come at the end of a trend and are unsustainable.

    The message for silver, and by implication gold, is that a price blow-off is at hand. Precious metal prices can surge much higher from here into the New Year, and gold could easily take out gold guru Jim Sinclair’s $1,650 target for mid-January, set an astonishing eight years ago.

    But this kind of price rocket always runs out of fuel. More and more pile into the market until there is nobody left, or not for this round of buying. Then prices return to earth, very swiftly.

    Silver in 1980 again?

    Silver did this in 1980. And actually the $50 an ounce all-time high of that magnificent spike has not yet been seen. Perhaps it will be in early 2011. Silver has always been highly speculative as an investment class and history has a habit of repeating itself, if only because investors read history and act on it.

    How will 2011 pan out for investors in gold and silver? Well this is what the ArabianMoney investment newsletter discusses in depth this month and we do not want to reveal our full thoughts for free on the Internet.

    We will, however, be referring back to our full view of the year in future posts on this website, and subscribers can check whether we get this right. But gold and silver investors need to be more careful about 2011 than any other year since this bull market started.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
    Dec 07 12:42 AM | Link | 1 Comment
  • Best places in the world to buy real estate for long term price rises!
     This article is an analysis of the real estate chapter in the recently published book ‘Supertrends’ by Danish futurologist and entrepreneur Lars Tvede. He is looking beyond the short term fluctuations of the economy, or the real estate cycle itself, and a decade or more into the future.

    His main contention is that societal supertrends favor real estate as an investment class. The world’s population will grow by two billion within 40 years and these folk have to live somewhere. Over the same time frame he predicts a wealth explosion, up 200 to 300 per cent in developed markets and 400 to 600 per cent in what today are emerging markets.


    Massive urbanization will result. This has been a trend over the centuries after all. Between 2010 and 2050 some 100 million new urban residents will have to be accomodated every year, mainly in low cost units. India and China will see the biggest urban expansions.

    Then again as the rich countries get richer the demand for second homes will mushroom. The best locations are going to be in short supply and the price will go up. Land is not a commodity that can be manufactured, unless you think of Dubai and its famous palm islands.

    And once the Chinese reach the level of affluence that leads to the buying of second homes that will unleash a powerful buying wave. If five per cent of 1.3 billion Chinese want holiday homes that is 65 million units, not the 650,000 suggested by Mr Tvede – he seems to have got his millions and billions muddled up.

    Preferred locations

    For where to buy real estate you should consider access to transport, low taxes, the rule of law and natural resources, and where people want to work. The Mobile Wealthy Residency Index rated destinations by 11 factors important to rich people and came up with the following list in 2009: Switzerland, London, Singapore, New York, Hong Kong, Jersey, Cayman Islands, Isle of Man, Monaco, Dubai and Guernsey in that order.

    Buying property in one of these preferred locations ought to be a better investment than elsewhere. Mr Tvede sums up his approach: ‘You don’t want to invest in real estate located in an area that is going nowhere, you don’t want to buy at inflated prices and you don’t want to buy close to the peak of a property cycle’.

    He advises buying in a recession, and possibly buying real estate company equities as an alternative to outright ownership which can be an onerous commitment. It’s a jumble of thoughts about the future of real estate but there is a lot of insight and wisdom here.

    Those Chinese real estate tours to Dubai are not just taking in the sights, they are looking at the sites.

    Disclosure: Villa in Dubai
    Aug 16 3:18 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Solar flare eruption could panic global stock markets

    An unprecedented solar flare on August 1st should hit the earth today probably only causing so-called northern lights in the sky but with the possibility of damaging satellites and communication technology, and panicking stock markets.

    The solar flare follows a warning from leading astrologer Arch Crawford (see that the alignment of the stars portended a major event in this period. The photograph on shows the eruption.

    Shock wave

    The New Scientist reported a shock wave moving through space that will buffet the natural magnetic shield protecting Earth. Observers all over the world have been watching the solar flares erupt.

    The Daily Telegraph interviewed Dr Lucie Green, of the Mullard Space Science Laboratory, Surrey, who followed the flare-ups using Japan’s orbiting Hinode telescope.

    She commented: ‘This was a very rare event – not one, but two almost simultaneous eruptions from different locations on the sun were launched toward the Earth.

    ‘These eruptions occur when immense magnetic structures in the solar atmosphere lose their stability and can no longer be held down by the Sun’s huge gravitational pull. Just like a coiled spring suddenly being released, they erupt into space.

    ‘It looks like the first eruption was so large that it changed the magnetic fields throughout half the Sun’s visible atmosphere and provided the right conditions for the second eruption.’

    Astrology right

    So Arch Crawford has been proven right but will that now follow over into his prediction of massive disruption in financial markets? That will actually not be the major worry if this turns out badly.

    Will this just be some interesting northern lights in the sky or fireworks of a rather different kind as markets digest the forward implications of a serious disruption to global communications? 

    Disclosure: None mentioned
    Aug 02 9:52 PM | Link | Comment!
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