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Peter Epstein  

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  • Lithium Demand Could Spike More Than Many Believe [View instapost]
    Cobre Montana (CXB) Australia....Looks very interesting as well.
    Jun 21, 2015. 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Extraordinary Skew - How Reward Outweighs Risk At Laredo Oil [View article]
    Thank you for another excellent article and another great, albeit speculative, stock to watch. I know another "smart money" investor who's very excited about the risk/reward of this company as well.

    Have you ever spoken with anyone at management? It's clear that communication with investors is lacking, but I was wondering if you were able to reach the company and have them tell you very little?
    Jun 20, 2015. 08:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why Alliance Resource Partners Will Outperform Alliance Holdings [View article]
    According to this article, ARLP holds all of the debt and AGHP none? How does that figure into things? I guess if ARLP goes down the tubes due to a death spiral, AGHP will as well due to its 42% holdings of ARLP and GP status.

    Any thoughts on this?

    One should assume flat coal prices from now until the end of 2016. That's a reasonable and hopefully a bit conservative assumption. Remember, ARLP operates in the 2 best regions in the country - NAPP and ILL. And, I think it would make sense to assume a flat distribution rate until the end of 2016.
    One thing the author states,
    "If ARLP lowers its distribution to $2 per unit and maintains it at that level, ARLP would be worth approximately $25 based on a 8% yield. This represents a 5% downside versus current prices."
    I'm not sure I agree. A distribution cut (way more draconian than a flat distribution) would signal to the markets that there is something totally wrong. The unit price would be lower.
    Jun 17, 2015. 08:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hard Rock Mining Of Lithium Compared To Lithium Brine Harvesting [View instapost]
    Article my friend, write that article that's in you. I don't disagree with your analysis. The only thing is that deposits are not the same as mines, i.e. Tibet and Bolivia.
    Jun 17, 2015. 08:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hard Rock Mining Of Lithium Compared To Lithium Brine Harvesting [View instapost]
    Good question. In Nevada Rockwood is the only operating brine lithium project in North America. That operation has been around for decades. There's been plenty of water to satisfy Rockland's needs. I believe WLC, DJI.v DJIFF, PE.v will be okay on that front. That would be one of the very first questions the management teams would ask to make sure. The brines themselves are a mixture of water and salts from with lithium is precipitated from.
    Jun 14, 2015. 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Resource Partners Is Significantly Undervalued With A 9% Yield [View article]
    what email if you happen to have it handy? Thanks
    Jun 13, 2015. 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Resource Partners: Answering Questions About Its Debt And Distribution [View article]
    NRP, once told me. why should we increase the disruption now. with the yield already at 12%? That was some time ago.....
    Jun 13, 2015. 04:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Resource Partners: Answering Questions About Its Debt And Distribution [View article]
    Thanks for feedback. What I was really wondering was, would the unit price decline significantly thereby giving us the opportunity to buy cheaper units.
    Jun 13, 2015. 04:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Resource Partners: Answering Questions About Its Debt And Distribution [View article]
    What do readers think would happen to the unit price if the company announced no increase in the distribution this coming quarter and also strongly implied that the distribution would remain unchanged for the next several quarters to help pay down debt?
    Jun 13, 2015. 08:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Resource Partners Is Significantly Undervalued With A 9% Yield [View article]
    I apologize if this question has already been asked or is contained within the article, but has anyone ever spoken with ARLP mgmt? I've tried and never got anywhere.
    That's not to say I think there's something fishy going on, I truly don't..... anyone have a name or contact or phone #?
    Jun 12, 2015. 01:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Golden Reign Resources: An Undervalued Compounding Machine [View article]
    Even though a 5% discount factor is too low, I concur with other comments made that 5% provides an apples to apples comparison to many other PEAs and PFS' in multiple natural resource sectors. As long as the sensitivity to using NPV(5%) is listed along with higher discount rates, I'm comfortable with the analysis. In this case, an NPV(8%) might be a good compromise, due to some projects sticking with 5% and others being more conservative at 10%. Gold projects even at PEA stage almost always state NPV(5%), correct?

    8% discount factor provides NPV of $63 million, is that the findings of this message board?
    Jun 10, 2015. 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lithium Demand Could Spike More Than Many Believe [View instapost]
    you said, "what do you find is the best vehicle to put large bets onto the bullish Li prices thesis? For now, I'm looking at the battery components."

    a big problem in the space is that it's hard to get invested in it. large players like ALB, SQM and FMC are not pure-plays. As you said, the ETF LIT is not good either. If you don't want the risk of a junior, I don't know what else there is.
    Jun 8, 2015. 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Golden Reign Resources: An Undervalued Compounding Machine [View article]
    Excellent article. Well articulated!
    Jun 8, 2015. 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lithium Demand Could Spike More Than Many Believe [View instapost]
    aricool, you should write articles on SA, your responses are well articulated and you know your stuff. You've written a lot more than one article through your comments.
    Jun 3, 2015. 08:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'm Not Buying The Panic, This 9% MLP Yield Is Secure [View article]
    Years ago, Peabody Energy (BTU) was the class act of the coal space. It was untouchable. Things have changed. ARLP is without doubt the BTU of 2015. Does anyone ever speak with anyone at management? That might help.

    One more thing- the most recent earnings conf call transcript was as negative I've seen out of ARLP. Just saying....

    I want to find a comforting reason to buy this MPL again. If distribution climbs by on 1% a quarter instead of 2%, what will that do to the MLP unit price?
    Jun 2, 2015. 09:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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