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Peter Epstein  

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  • Cannabis Stocks: What The Growlife Halt Means For The Industry [View article]
    Alan, thanks for pointing out the topic of exports. I haven't considered exports in my analysis. Does anyone have any info or opinion on when exports might start from Canada for FITX, Tweed or any other licensed provider?

    Thanks!
    Apr 22, 2014. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cannabis Stocks: What The Growlife Halt Means For The Industry [View article]
    In what year, (plus or minus a year) might Tweed approach 15 million grams, (= to about 33,069 pounds) of sales? In what year, (plus or minus a year) might FITX approach 1 million pounds per year?

    Thanks.
    Apr 21, 2014. 11:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cannabis Stocks: What The Growlife Halt Means For The Industry [View article]
    Why buy FITX with a market cap of more than twice that of Tweed?
    Apr 21, 2014. 06:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Graphite One, Leading U.S. Graphite Play With Massive High-Grade Deposit [View article]
    I like Flinders, I've owned that stock in the past, but how big is the opportunity? How many metric tonnes can that past producing property deliver annually? I think the project has a stated Net Present Value, "NPV" in the US$ 20's millions?

    Graphite one, (best case) is 3 years from production. I believe it will have a NPV in the hundreds of millions when they release a PEA (expected within 9-12 months). Therefore, I think GPHOF / GPH.v has the possibility of a 5 Bagger return over the next few years. Flinders' stock looks like it has far less upside, albeit with less near-term risk.
    Apr 19, 2014. 08:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Sands Energy, First Mover In U.S. Oil Sands Extraction [View article]
    I would continue to assume about a $50 million market cap, not $28 million. The company issued Series A preferred shares that are way in the money for conversion into common shares. I use 52 million pro forma shares x $0.90 share price = about $47 million, that's why I say $50 million.

    The company's opportunities outside of Utah are huge. They can earn royalties from projects outside of Utah, including internationally. The royalties would be split with the owner of the solvent extraction technology. Even a 5% royalty stream on gross revenues of a third-party project could be very substantial. These are 30 year projects. Each project could be a meaningful annuity to AMSE. For example, a third-party operating at 5,000 bopd and paying a 5% royalty on gross revenues to AMSE would be paying about $9 million annually. The Net Present Value of 30 years of $9 million a year close to $100 million. And that $100 million would come with no associated costs.

    Therefore, a single third-party project using AMSE's licensed technology would more than cover the market valuation of the entire company. And remember, 5,000 bopd is a small project, Canada is running at nearly 2,000,000 bopd. So, there's tremendous blue-sky upside, albeit not without significant funding and permiting risks.
    Apr 17, 2014. 11:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Sands Energy, First Mover In U.S. Oil Sands Extraction [View article]
    Let's stick to AMSE please....

    Frost and Honig continue to be extremely supportive of PGLC and are long-term believers. It might take a higher gold price for investors to recognize the upside of PGLC stock. I for one believe that the gold price will be $1,400-$1,800/oz next year.

    Please direct further PGLC comments/questions to the PGLC article comment sections. Thanks!
    Apr 17, 2014. 10:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Sands Energy, First Mover In U.S. Oil Sands Extraction [View article]
    Funny that Lisa mentions Red Leaf Resources....I know A LOT about that private company with 2 projects in Utah. Red Leaf is pursuing oil shale, not oil sands, and hopes to be in semi-commercial scale production by the end of next year. By oil shale, I mean actual shale rock that has kerogen in it. By heating the rock, hydrocarbons are liberated. For further info, go to the Red Leaf Resources website.

    Red Leaf is teamed with Total, the giant French Oil company. Red Leaf has spent the past 7 years, along with U.S. Oil Sands Inc. and of course American Sands Energy, paving the way for unconventional oil production in the state of Utah.

    Oil sands is conventional, I only call it unconventional in that it hasn't been done yet anywhere in the U.S.
    Apr 17, 2014. 09:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Sands Energy, First Mover In U.S. Oil Sands Extraction [View article]
    The stock is very thinly traded, so good news can drive it up quickly. Pro forma for the assumed conversion of all Series A preferred stock into common stock, there are about 52 million shares outstanding. That's about a $US 50 million market cap with zero debt. The company expects to be in commercial scale production of oil by the summer of 2016, with the first full year of 5,000 bopd in 2017. At 5,000 bopd, and a conservative $80 WTI oil price assumption, the company estimates it could generate $39 million of EBITDA....See page 11 of corporate presentation....

    In terms of valuation, one is paying about a 1.3x multiple of Enterprise Value to EBITDA. Enterprise Value = market cap + debt - cash. Even after assuming a further $75 million capital raise in 1h 2015, the EV to EBITDA multiple would be just 3.2x, still cheap for a company that plans to ultimately grow to 50,000 bopd by 2020-2021.

    This is a high-risk situation, but I really like the fact that even at a $80 WTI crude oil price the company could be looking at $39 million of EBITDA. Today's spot price on WTI crude is $104/barrel.

    A factor that was not addressed in the interview is the highly attractive production curve of all oil sands operations. We've all read about the unconventional oil shale and gas plays that have steep decline curves. So steep, that in many cases initial production is halved within a year or two. With oil sands extraction there is no decline curve!! because it's really a mining operation, not an oil drilling play.

    Zero decline curve, with limited (if any) meaningful cost escalation-- that's the Holy Grail of oil production. The ONLY reason why oil sands production in Canada is not the Holy Grail is because of the heavy use and pollution of valuable water resources.
    American Sands Energy's licensed technology/process does not use water and therefore does not require the design, permitting, funding, building, monitoring and reclamation of tailings ponds. A HUGE difference and HUGELY compelling part of the AMSE story.

    If not for the politically and environmentally difficult to swallow tailings ponds in Canada, which stretch over thousands of acres, the oil sands industry there would be 10x as big. As it stands, the industry is 40+ years old and is producing upwards of 2 million bopd.

    Cleaner, more profitable oil sands extraction is coming to the U.S. It's a question of when, not if. Utah is the furthest along in allowing this to happen. I feel comfortable that AMSE has a more profitable business model than Canadian peers for one simple reason. The Canadian oil sands extraction methods use steam to separate bitumen from sand. The cost of building a steam generation facility alone (a mini power plant)typically runs into the hundreds of millions of dollars. AMSE completely avoids that expenditure.
    Apr 17, 2014. 09:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capitalizing On Cannabis: Key Addition To GrowLife Management Team Solidifies Story [View article]
    I hear guesses that TWD will trade at $2-$4 per share tomorrow.

    How many shares outstanding? Thanks!
    Apr 3, 2014. 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capitalizing On Cannabis: Key Addition To GrowLife Management Team Solidifies Story [View article]
    Thanks fidelissemper

    Anyone know what the market valuation is of Tweed? I think it's a private company going public soon in Canada? Thanks again.
    Apr 3, 2014. 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capitalizing On Cannabis: Key Addition To GrowLife Management Team Solidifies Story [View article]
    Great article as always Alan.

    While providing the picks & shovels is always a great way to play an industry, what about the actual cultivators of medical marijuana? Does anyone know of any pure-play cultivators? Shouldn't cultivators have higher margins than picks & shovels providers? Albeit, clearly cultivators would have higher risk as well.

    Is it still all mom and pops cultivating? Thanks Alan and anyone who can help me learn more about this sector.
    Apr 3, 2014. 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Rango Energy Ready To Rock And Roll [View article]
    hartsook57,

    Bob Harrell and I spent a lot of time on this interview. I can say with 100% conviction that he did not see this coming. And, I can assure you that I did not see this coming. The Board of Rango Energy believes that they have a highly compelling business opportunity that's superior to their oil & gas prospects. Further, the Board believes that they can not fund both a new business model and the Rango-INNEX joint venture opportunity.

    As far as the next line of business that Rango is pursuing, that's not been announced, but I presume it will be announced within a few days.
    Apr 2, 2014. 07:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Uranium Plays: Don't Overlook The Little Guys [View article]
    Please follow me on Twitter: @peterepstein2

    Peninsula Energy and Powertech Uranium both are overlooked and oversold. Both have U.S. ISR projects just like URZ, URG and UEC do. Both trade at significant valuation discounts to peer U.S. ISR players URZ, URG and UEC.

    I like Powertech more than Peninsula simply because I think there's more upside in the stock. Peninsula could comfortably double, but I'm hoping for a 3x-5x return on Powertech Uranium over the next 2 years. High risk = High Return...
    Mar 19, 2014. 09:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Passport Potash's Low-Cost Project Stands Out In Potash Sector Meltdown [View article]
    I still hold PPI. Everything went out the window on the Russian/Belarusian news in late July, 2013. I think PPI has a great deposit, but it has to reinvent itself with the new reality of the industry. I believe they have some good ideas to do so.
    Mar 18, 2014. 10:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Uranium Plays: Don't Overlook The Little Guys [View article]
    Well done article.

    Mega Uranium had quite a run since my article in November. The stock went from 6c to 40c before pulling back to about 30c now....

    I think investors are going to wait for the uranium price to move by a few dollars/lb before we see another big move in the sector.

    My new favorite name, (oversold and under-appreciated) is Powertech Uranium. I'm working on an article on Powertech for late this week or early next week....
    Mar 18, 2014. 10:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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