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Peter Epstein

 
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  • Talking Coal With SouthGobi Resources' CEO [View article]
    My take on SoutGobi has been bullish for 2 years now. I became a consultant for the Company back in July, 2011. 9 months ago, I was saying that SouthGobi is a prime takeout candidate, "within 6-12 months." Now I think that SouthGobi is a prime takeout candidate sometime in 2012. Since the summer of 2011, M&A activity in the mining space has picked up, which can only be good for SouthGobi.

    Although my timing for cash flow and a takeout may have been off, operationally SGQ is ramping up production very nicely. Margins and high profitability to follow, but one needs the production first, which they are executing on. 4mm metric tonnes in 2011 going to 5.5mm metric tonnes in 2012, (my estimate, not necessarily the Company's). If they reach 10mm tonnes by 2014-15, then they will have achieved about 30% 5-yr CAGR run-of-mine production growth.

    I can't emphasize enough the difference between SouthGobi, an established very low-cost player, ALREADY in production of an estimated 5.5mm clean tonnes in 2012 vs. the emerging Mongolian coking coal companies, both public and private. The difference in risk is huge. The same can be said about the up-and-coming Australian-listed coking coal players-- NOT YET in PRODUCTION. Night and day... Aston, (AZT), Bandanna, (BND), Riversdale, (acquired by Rio Tinto), Coalspur, (CPL), the listed is of companies is a lot longer.....
    Feb 17, 2012. 08:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy Should Be A Top Gainer As Coal Prices Recover [View article]
    Peabody screens cheap, but it has earnings downside risks with its integration of Macarthur Coal and all. PRB pricing remains weak. A rebound in coal prices will come at some point, but when? That's the question, when. And not just a speculative bounce in coal prices, but a sustained move up.
    Feb 17, 2012. 08:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ivanhoe Energy: The Highest Risk/Highest Reward Stock In My Portfolio [View article]
    Rio has reached 51% ownership of Ivanhoe Mines. Rio has been building this position for years. So, yes, Rio has crept into a controlling stake. But, no, Rio has NOT replaced the mgmt team. There's talk of Rio replacing some Board members, but no meaningful changes have been made to date.
    Feb 17, 2012. 07:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ivanhoe Energy: The Highest Risk/Highest Reward Stock In My Portfolio [View article]
    In defense of IVAN, how many hundreds of companies have had the same (or worse) troubles over the past several years???

    And how many companies have disappeared entirely???

    All that matters is the company's prospects looking forward.
    Feb 16, 2012. 08:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal, How Bad Could It Get? [View article]
    Thanks sherlockjv, I've gotten a fair amount of positive feedback lately. Please follow me and pass my article on. Thanks again.
    Feb 16, 2012. 08:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs May Take Over Walter; Vale Also A 'Buy' [View article]
    CLF could double its coking coal sales by acquiring SouthGobi Resources. Please click on the following link for an in-depth interview of the CEO of SouthGobi.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Feb 16, 2012. 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Talking Coal With SouthGobi Resources' CEO [View article]
    The coal stocks are being lifted along with the market. It's difficult to say at what price I would buy ANR. When the market settles down, I will write an article about ANR.
    Feb 16, 2012. 03:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ivanhoe Energy: The Highest Risk/Highest Reward Stock In My Portfolio [View article]
    Awesome color. Great job.
    Feb 16, 2012. 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal, How Bad Could It Get? [View article]
    Watching and waiting for a reason to become more bullish on the coal stocks. For now, the market is lifting all boats. When I see positive fundamental data, I will report it.
    Feb 16, 2012. 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Talking Coal With SouthGobi Resources' CEO [View article]
    SouthGobi Resources is a Canadian domiciled and listed company. The Mongolian government does not own any of it.
    Feb 16, 2012. 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vale: Undervalued At Current Price Levels [View article]
    Yes, Vale appears cheap on a host of valuation metrics. But is it cheaper than Rio Tinto or Freeport (FCX)? Most of the major mining companies are trading cheap, but what's the catalyst to get them moving? I don't know. That's why I think looking at companies that are attractive takeout targets makes a lot of sense.

    For example, please read my interview with the CEO of SouthGobi Resources-- This coking coal producer should be acquired....

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Feb 16, 2012. 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Talking Coal With SouthGobi Resources' CEO [View article]
    Thanks Colin. I think we will have a good buying opportunity in the coal stocks, just not now.
    Feb 16, 2012. 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal, How Bad Could It Get? [View article]
    I am long Jan-13 call options on some coal stocks including ANR. I've lost a decent amount in the past week. I don't want to try to trade in and out. I would buy more options if stocks correct another 10% or so from here.

    I like ANR in the long-run, just like ACI, but what's the catalyst to step into any of these coal stocks right now? Things can and do change quickly, I could easily miss a hard turn in the coal stocks, but I'm not managing money, so I don't have to be invested at all times.
    Feb 16, 2012. 11:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal, How Bad Could It Get? [View article]
    I would only own Walter (WLT) for a possible takeout. I have been long in the past. In fact I sold PUT options on WLT last year and did quite well with that trade.

    I am watching WLT for an entry point to buy Jan-13 call options, but I need WLT to decline 10% from here, which of course it may not do.
    Feb 16, 2012. 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal Looks Attractive At Current Levels [View article]
    Hot off the presses, Arch Coal update. Headwinds on thermal coal too strong to offset attractive prospects in coking coal. Please follow me for updates on coal and natural resources stocks. Thank you.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Feb 16, 2012. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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