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Peter Epstein  

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  • Natural Resource Partners, L.P. Revisited, 9.65% Yield Hard To Beat [View article]
    NRP units now yielding 10%. Worth a look.

    I bought some more today.
    Jun 26, 2012. 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Make Big Profits By Trading King Coal [View article]
    Sorry, I have to pile on. CNX is not a good short. They have generated more than $1.0 billion in operating cash flow in EACH of the last 4 years including $1.5 billion in 2011.

    They have a larger market cap than Peabody Energy, so how are they small?

    They have one of the best high quality coking coal mines in the U.S. It produces about 5 million tons per year Only Walter produces more of the top quality coking coal than CNX.
    Jun 26, 2012. 12:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Next For Undervalued Coal Stocks? [View article]
    Teck Resources makes the following point in their May 15th slide deck presentation available on their website....see page 8.

    http://bit.ly/MMuW0f

    If China's GDP grows by 7%-8% in 2012, that would equate to about US$550 billion of growth. 5-7 years ago when China was growing at 10%-13% on a smaller base, that equated to about $300 billion of growth. Therefore, according to Teck, if China's GDP growth falls to 3.5%, that's still equates to a lot demand for commodities as it would be the same as US$ amount as 10%-13% GDP growth was 5-7 years ago.
    Jun 25, 2012. 06:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Resource Partners: Safe 7.5% Yield With Significant Unit Price Upside [View article]
    Bob85. ARLP has MORE contracted than any other U.S. coal producer for 2013. To your point, yes I'm worried about utility customers pushing back coal shipments and trying to cancel orders, but ARLP's large exposure to the Ill. Basin should protect them as they are delivering low-cost (to the customer) tons.

    ARLP has long-standing relationships with utility customers, there have been few if any signs of troubles on this front as of yet.
    Jun 25, 2012. 06:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Resource Partners: Safe 7.5% Yield With Significant Unit Price Upside [View article]
    I haven't looked into AHGP vs. ARLP. I understand the relationship, but I haven't studied it yet. Do you have any thoughts?
    Jun 22, 2012. 10:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Resource Partners: Safe 7.5% Yield With Significant Unit Price Upside [View article]
    well said, Onlinden.
    Jun 22, 2012. 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patriot Coal: Standing At The Precipice [View article]
    Can someone please check that math? It's way past my bed time.
    Jun 22, 2012. 02:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patriot Coal: Standing At The Precipice [View article]
    Step 1: Sell 1,000 shares of PCX stock for 1.40 per share, = $14k. ** IGNORE commissions.

    Step 2: Buy 350 Jan-2014 LEAPS (call options) with a $5.00 strike, last offered at about $0.40. [350 contracts x $0.4 = $14k. ** IGNORE commissions.

    If what you believe about PCX and the coal market turns out to be true, in your estimation, PCX will be up by a factor of 10 or 20 by January, 2014.

    Step 3: Come January, 2014, with the stock up by a factor of 10 to $14.00 per share, sell your call options for $14.00-$5.00 = $9.00.

    Your gain would be $9 divided by $0.40 or 2,150%, compared to only 900% if you hold the stock outright from $1.40 to $14.00.

    Your $14k in options would be worth $315k instead of $140k.
    Jun 22, 2012. 02:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Patriot Coal Bounces Back, What You Need To Know [View article]
    Mark Anthony followers = 1,616

    Junc Bond followers = 26

    Jun 22, 2012. 01:25 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patriot Coal: Standing At The Precipice [View article]
    FYI,
    On June 19th at a Raymond James Coal conference Arch said that in the event of PCX bankruptcy, they have about $65 million of exposure, but that it would be spread out over several years.
    Jun 22, 2012. 01:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Patriot Coal: Standing At The Precipice [View article]
    Just spent the last hour reading all of this. Good job Sane Investor, you nailed this one a few months before most others.

    Some advice to Mark Anthony-- SELL ALL of YOUR PCX stock tomorrow!!

    AND, replace it with out of the money call options. If you think that coal fundamentals are turning in a few months, buy Jan-2013 call options. Based on your reasoning and conviction, you should know by January 2013 if you're thesis is correct or not.
    Jun 22, 2012. 01:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Powder River Basin The Next Central Appalachia? Peabody, Arch And Cloud Peak Hope Not [View article]
    I'm not well versed in Colorado and Utah coals, except I own shares of Cline Mining, (CLNMF) that has 619 million measured and indicated tons of hi-vol B coal. I'm interested in your thoughts on Utah and Colorado coal?

    I wrote this article regarding Cloud Peak and Cline Mining....

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jun 21, 2012. 10:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Needs Coking Coal; Colorado's Cline Mining Has It [View article]
    Peabody, (BTU) should look at buying Cline Mining as well. Cloud Peak would stand to gain the most, but Peabody could buy Cline without blinking an eye. Peabody could market the coal from its own trading operations.
    Jun 21, 2012. 08:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Resource Partners: Safe 7.5% Yield With Significant Unit Price Upside [View article]
    I am not a good trader, ARLP and NRP are buy and hold stocks. I like the limited downside of these 2 stocks along with the upside.
    Jun 21, 2012. 06:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Powder River Basin The Next Central Appalachia? Peabody, Arch And Cloud Peak Hope Not [View article]
    The most followed SA contributors have more than 60k followers.

    I have 550. When I get over 10k, then you can accuse me of trying to move the market.
    Jun 21, 2012. 03:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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