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In 2011 Peter Epstein, CFA, left a $3 billion hedge fund where he was a senior natural resources analyst to help increase awareness of a number of natural resource companies in which he's invested in. PLEASE FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @peterepstein2 Mr. Epstein formed MockingJay, Inc., a... More
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  • Anfield Resources Ignored Despite Spike In Uranium Price

    With the spot uranium price up to $42/lb. according to Tradetech, up about 50%! from its $28/lb. low, investors should take another look at Anfield Resources (ARY-V) and (OTCQB:ANLDF). Many uranium peers are rallying on the substantial spot price move and on news that 2 reactors in Japan are in the process of restarting. Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald noted,

    "We continue to view the September announcement [by the Japanese Regulatory Authority that two reactors at the Sendai plant have met the safety requirements for a restart] as a positive signaling event for the uranium sector as a significant amount of the current U3O8 inventory is a result of material earmarked for Japan not being used. We estimate that 15 reactors including the Sendai pair will restart in 2015 with an additional four restarting in 2016. Ultimately we expect 32 of the country's remaining 48 reactors will be restarted by 2018 - amounting to about 14.5 million pounds of annual U3O8 demand on a steady state basis. Prior to Fukushima, Japan consumed 21.3 million pounds U3O8 on an annualized basis. With low uranium prices not incentivizing additional uranium production, a demand environment that is expected to grow continuously (we forecast 17% growth by 2020), we believe uranium equities are well positioned to move higher."

    UR-Energy is up 36%, Uranerz (URZ) up 59%, Uranium Energy Corp (UEC) 84% and Energy Fuels (UUUU) 40% since October 15th lows. However, Anfield Resources' stock is unchanged at C$0.40 per share. This, despite Anfield close to closing a game- changing acquisition of 1 of only 3 licensed conventional uranium mills in the U.S. The increases in the peers' stocks since October 15th are significantly greater than the entire Enterprise Value, "EV" of Anfield, which is about C$8 million. Anfield is flying under the radar, when it should be soaring with the rest of the industry.

    read more here:

    Disclosure: The author is long ANLDF.

    Tags: ANLDF, uranium, copper
    Nov 11 9:35 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Could The Coking Coal Market Get Any Worse?


    Could the Coking Coal Market Get Any Worse?
    Posted on October 1, 2014 by Peter Epstein


    Could the coking coal market get any worse? Probably not. A lot has been written about the plunge in iron ore prices, down about 41% this year alone due to oversupply from the Big 4, Vale S.A., (NYSE: VALE) Rio Tinto plc, (NYSE: RIO) BHP Billiton Limited (NYSE: BHP) and Fortescue Metals Group (ASX: FMG). The outlook for 2015 is for even more iron ore supply, despite China's growth rate slowing. A similar dynamic is taking place in coking coal, the coal used with iron ore to make steel.

    Coking coal prices have plunged 64% since 2011

    Like iron ore, coking coal prices have plunged. From mid-2011, the quarterly benchmark low-vol coking coal price collapsed from $330 per metric tonne to $119/tonne, a decline of 64%. BHP Billiton, through its BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance, "BMA" Alliance and Teck Resources (NYSE: TCK) are the two largest players. Oversupply and elevated stockpiles throughout the supply chain are thought to be a dead weight on coking coal prices for at least the next several quarters. I agree. Inroads made by natural gas in recent years and ever increasing environmental scrutiny of the coal industry continue wreak havoc as well.

    - See more at:

    Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Tags: ANR, WLT, ACI, RIO, TCK, BHP, coal, coking coal
    Oct 01 1:02 PM | Link | 3 Comments
  • Graphite Market Review: China's Exports To Decline Markedly

    Graphite Market Review - The graphite sector was down -3.59% for the week ending September 26th, 2014 based on the list of graphite stocks we are following listed below. China's intermediate-term supply crunch in graphite is not well appreciated by the market. This is surprising as 70% of the world's graphite comes from China, and exports will without question decline markedly in coming years. Even though it has been widely reported that there will be major curtailments of supply in two of China's major graphite mining provinces, graphite investors and end-users seem largely unfazed. China's actions have not yet been fully implemented, so the impact on supply may not be readily apparent. Even without this major catalyst, China also intends to keep more of its graphite for domestic uses. Make no mistake, this is a big deal. The moves by China have global implications.

    We've seen this movie before. A few years ago, China announced that it was closing down small, polluting and/or illegal coal mines. At first, this was largely ignored by the market. It was known that China was trying to clean up its act. It was also thought that China wanted to slash the large number of mining deaths due to unsafe work environments. As a result, China's imports of coal from Indonesia, Australia, Columbia, the U.S. and Canada started to increase, slowly at first, then by a more significant and consistent amount.

    - See more at:

    Disclosure: The author is long GPHOF, GLKIF, ABGPF.

    Sep 30 9:59 AM | Link | Comment!
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