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Peter Fuhrman

 
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  • General Mills' Stunning Success In China
    Wed, Dec. 17 GIS 8 Comments

    Summary

    • America's most successful M&A deal in China is also among the most clandestine.
    • General Mills has a booming business in China, better in many ways than Starbucks, McDonald's, and KFC. Not that you'd ever know from reading the annual report.
    • The Minnesota giant dominates the Chinese market in sales of a Chinese national staple food -- dumplings.
  • China's Giant Banks: Learn How They Overprice And Misallocate Loans While Treating Borrowers Like Conmen
    Tue, Dec. 2 CHIX 4 Comments

    Summary

    • 17 of the world's 100 largest banks are from China. Their size hides some deep weaknesses and a business model that harms the development of China's private sector.
    • Borrowing rates for Chinese companies are among the highest, in real terms, in the world. That gives the banks fat profits, but is a deadweight further slowing China's economy.
    • Trust, the lack thereof, is at the root of this enormous mispricing of credit in China. Unless this gets fixed, China will continue have a big, but globally uncompetitive banking sector.
    • Hidden loan losses aren't the big problem. It's the banks' inability to break their addiction of lending to SOEs.
  • Nanjing - The Chinese Boomtown Neglected By U.S. Investors
    Tue, Nov. 18 XOM, BTI, BASFY 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Nanjing was once dominated by U.S. investment and U.S. influence. Sadly, both are now in short supply.
    • The city's economy has grown 200-fold over the last thirty years, and it's now richer per capita than the capital Beijing.
    • U.S. companies need to direct their capital and attention to where growth is now happening in China. Nanjing is front and center.
  • China High-Tech: Alibaba And Other Recent Chinese IPOs Can't Disguise A Disappointing Record Of Achievement
    Fri, Oct. 3 FXI, PGJ, GXC 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Despite many claims China is transitioning quickly away from its roots as a copycat, knock-off economy to become a potent new high-tech power, the detailed reality is far more sobering.
    • For all the hype, the government policies and cash, China remains a high-tech disappointment, more dud than ascending rocket.
    • Long-term failures, like the inability to produce jet engines, point to deeper problems that will continue to bedevil China's urgent need to upgrade its economy and innovation.
  • Alibaba Grabs The IPO Money But The Future Belongs To Jeff Bezos And Amazon China
    Wed, Sep. 10 BABA, AMZN 150 Comments

    Summary

    • While Alibaba touts itself and raises $20 billion from US investors, Jeff Bezos is busy in China with his Alibaba-killer business.
    • Bezos has precision-targeted Alibaba's key weaknesses and is positioning Amazon China for long-term dominance.
    • Amazon in typical style reveals nothing about its strategy or operations in China. Everything is secret. They're clearly spending heavily, but with outstanding results so far.
  • The Surprising Reasons Why Beijing Now Heads The List Of Most Expensive, Crowded And Polluted Cities
    Fri, Aug. 22 FXI, PGJ, GXC 5 Comments

    Summary

    • A gusher of government stimulus money is cause for some of Beijing's famous misfortunes.
    • In its 3,000 years as China’s major urban outpost, nothing has altered Beijing as quickly, deeply, and perhaps permanently as the bounce-back and kickback from trillions in government spending.
    • China's leader Xi Jinping is Beijing born and bred. Will he change directions and slow the city's explosive expansion?
  • China's Rise Enters A More Challenging Phase, Where Bold Ambitions Confront Stubborn, Often Centuries-Old Obstacles
    Tue, Aug. 5 FXI, EWH, PGJ 3 Comments

    Summary

    • China at the crossroads: after so many years of phenomenal economic success, it must now innovate or growth will wither. Where can investors find value?
    • New detailed analytical report studies core challenges, as well as emerging investment opportunities and themes for investing profitably.
    • How can China continue to push forward against some deep-seated problems, including how to generate globally-competitive innovation, how to sort out land ownership, and how to attract and reward global investment.
  • What's The Crazier Bet? USA Winning The World Cup Or Investing In China's Internet And Mobile Companies?
    Tue, Jun. 17 BIDU, BABA, TCEHY 5 Comments

    Summary

    • PE and VC money is pouring into early-stage "me too" internet and mobile companies in China.
    • The low-probability plan is for either Tencent or Alibaba to buy these firms, or US stock market to welcome their IPOs.
    • This looks a lot like China's homegrown version of the Dot-com Bubble of the late 1990s.
  • Tiananmen 25 Years Later. I Was There. I Was Wrong
    Wed, Jun. 4 FXI 41 Comments

    Summary

    • China is a better, fairer, richer, more open and freer place than it was in 1989.
    • Economic and social progress in China are rooted in a deep, practical resiliency.
    • Problems remain, but the country has come farther faster than I dared imagine when I first got here.
  • Who Should Own China's Land And Who Should Farm It Remain Central Questions For China And Large U.S. Multinationals Thriving There
    Wed, May. 21 FXI, PGJ, GXC 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Urbanization in China is the main source for long-term profit and revenue growth for many US multinationals.
    • China's 5,000 year-old peasant civilization is under constant strain because of small farm size and huge demand in cities for new labor.
    • Long-term, China's urbanization is likely to continue, underpinning the country's long-term growth.
  • WH Group Hong Kong IPO Goes Belly Up - Smithfield Foods Relisting Deal Collapses
    Tue, Apr. 29 MS, BACHY 3 Comments

    Summary

    • After its big buyout last year in the US, the attempt to relist Smithfield Foods' assets in Hong Kong has collapsed in an embarrassing mess.
    • The Morgan Stanley-led deal carried too much debt and too high a valuation for IPO investors.
    • Only Smithfield's shareholders have come out ahead on this deal, selling shares to a China-led PE consortium for a 31% premium over the pre-bid price.
  • China IPO, The Reuters Headline And The Reality Couldn't Be More Worlds Apart
    Mon, Apr. 21 FXI, PGJ, GXC 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Media reports to the contrary, IPOs look set to resume in China after a two-month hiatus.
    • China's IPO process undergoing a 180-degree shift, letting markets, not regulators, decide who will IPO, when and at what price.
    • With bumps along the way, China's capital markets are headed in the right direction.
  • China's Malls Get Mauled: How Alibaba's Taobao And Other Online Shopping Sites Are Pushing Traditional Chinese Retailers Toward Extinction
    Wed, Apr. 9 BABA 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Alibaba Group's success is creating havoc for shopping malls and traditional retailers in China.
    • Bricks-and-mortar stores are fundamentally uncompetitive and overpriced in China and so unable to halt the continuing rise of online shopping.
    • Online shopping, led by Alibaba's Taobao, will take an ever-growing share of every retail Renminbi spent in China.
  • 3M: Its Solid Success In China Is Transforming Both The Company And China Itself
    Tue, Mar. 25 MMM 8 Comments

    Summary

    • 3M is quietly, even stealthily, thriving in China as few other American companies are.
    • 3M's future growth is hinged more and more on its performance in China, where it expects within 10 years to have revenues larger than the US.
    • 3M's China strategy is as simple as it is successful: premium products, premium prices and premium market shares.
  • How China Triumphed Over India, And Won The Battle As The World's Best And Biggest Emerging Market
    Tue, Mar. 4 FXI, EPI, INDY 21 Comments
  • China's New Peasant Revolution -- How It Is Boosting Food Production And Farm Incomes
    Tue, Feb. 11 FXI, PGJ, GXC 8 Comments
  • The Misfortunes Of The Big 4 In China
    Tue, Jan. 28 BIDU, FXI, PGJ 18 Comments
  • China's Capital Markets, IPO And Institutional Investment: From Feast To Famine And Now Back Again?
    Tue, Jan. 21 FXI, PGJ, GXC 7 Comments
  • Private Equity In China: It's Changing, But From What? Into What?
    Tue, Jan. 7 BX, CG, KKR 2 Comments
  • China's SOEs: Big Changes On The Way At China's Biggest Firms
    Dec. 24, 2013 CHL, SNP 8 Comments
  • The Big Churn - How High PE Partner Turnover Is Damaging Institutional Investment In China
    Dec. 15, 2013 FXI, PGJ, GXC Comment!
  • China's Long IPO Freeze To End Next Month
    Editors' Pick • Dec. 2, 2013 GS, MS, PEK 3 Comments
  • China's Logistical Nightmare: Why FedEx And UPS Are Dying To Expand In China
    Nov. 13, 2013 UPS, FDX 1 Comment
  • Trendsetting IPO In Hong Kong: Hydoo Helps Revive Investor Interest In Chinese Listings
    Nov. 1, 2013 FXI, GXC, PGJ Comment!
  • State-Owned Enterprise Buyouts In China: A Great Way To Make Money
    Aug. 7, 2013 FXI, PEK, GXC Comment!
  • Smithfield Foods - Shuanghui International: Where's The Beef?
    Jun. 3, 2013 SFD 10 Comments
  • CITIC Capital's Take Private Deal For AsiaInfo-Linkage: Is This An LBO The Chinese Way?
    May. 16, 2013 ASIA 3 Comments
  • Goldman Sachs Predicts 349 IPOs In China In 2013
    Apr. 3, 2013 1 Comment
  • The Ambow Massacre: Baring Private Equity Fails In Its Take Private Plan
    Mar. 27, 2013 AMBO 11 Comments
  • Dollars No Longer Welcome In China
    Oct. 24, 2012 UUP, UDN, CNY Comment!
  • Focus Media: China's First Big LBO Deal Is A Head-Scratcher
    Aug. 30, 2012 FMCN 9 Comments
  • Chinese Private Equity Moves From IPO To IRR
    Apr. 16, 2012 Comment!