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Peter Larson

 
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  • All eyes on Amazon Prime [View news story]
    Seriously, instead of trying to tabulate the "benefits" why don't they just read the mountain of "I'll cancel if they do this" comments all over the internet from actual customers?
    Feb 2 10:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Only one downgrade for Amazon post-earnings; sell-side mostly defends [View news story]
    Dear Amazon employee-

    Please come up with a new line for your fake comments.

    In 2014, people are well aware that there are numerous options in between "drive to the malls" and "pay $100 to be locked into a single website".
    Jan 31 04:43 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Only one downgrade for Amazon post-earnings; sell-side mostly defends [View news story]
    Bingo- it's a literal death spiral.

    Prime is not profitable unless product margins > shipping costs. That became false in late 2012.

    The amount they charge upfront is irrelevant due to adverse selection. Same as Costco and Sam's Club.
    Jan 31 04:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon - Buy Into Earnings [View article]
    Drat.

    Forgot I was in a reply.
    Jan 30 09:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon - Buy Into Earnings [View article]
    You know, I never thought Amazon would "crack" because of a blown earnings report.

    I've been saying since my first article that it would be a price hike for Amazon prime that turns public opinion against them.

    Guess they decided to kill two birds with one stone.
    Jan 30 09:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon mulling Prime price hike; shares now -4.7% AH [View news story]
    Death spiral.
    Amazon has "good" prime customers as well as abusive ones. Raising the price will just kill sales and traffic from the "good" customers.
    Jan 30 07:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon - Buy Into Earnings [View article]
    Eh, I had a nice day w/ AMZN, but I've been buying puts intermittently since $240.

    Also, I was short FB.

    Win some, lose some.
    Jan 30 05:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon - Buy Into Earnings [View article]
    High five!
    Jan 30 04:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon - Buy Into Earnings [View article]
    Changed my mind and sold for an inter-day profit.
    Expectations of beaten expectations are baked in.

    Long term short.
    Jan 30 02:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon - Buy Into Earnings [View article]
    Quite a bit.

    It would take about a 13% bottom-line margin to get Amazon down to a reasonable PE of 20.

    Put differently, Amazon would need a 68,000% increase from their CURRENT profit margins

    Doing this would require them to become about 4x as profitable as Walmart is right now.
    Jan 30 01:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon - Buy Into Earnings [View article]
    Long term I think Amazon goes bk.

    But I'm also long JUST into earnings- earnings are a dog-and-pony show.
    Jan 30 10:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks plunge in flight to safety, Dow drops most since June [View news story]
    cool story 'bro
    Jan 24 04:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is A Terrible Time To Buy On Margin [View article]
    Interactive Brokers does appear to be a great deal, so thank you everyone for pointing that out.

    But let me put it this way: the point of this analysis is to figure out at what point in time we should expect to see broad de-leveraging.

    Last year, when the market was trading at an 8% discount rate, I felt that it was expensive but there was still a little meat on the bone because most investors could still easily borrow for less than that.

    I don't think the market will get to a 1.58% future discount rate.
    Jan 23 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is A Terrible Time To Buy On Margin [View article]
    My understanding- and feel free to correct me if I'm wrong- is that the interest is only deductible against investment income, which does not include long-term capital gains.

    So if someone wished to count the gain as a long-term capital gain, they would still have to pay full taxes on it.

    In practice, they would most likely just elect to have a portion of the capital gains counted as investment income. But that's getting pretty far away from the concept of the article. I'm assuming noone reading this would even be considering a loan that large in the first place.

    I'd be happy to submit a correction if I can figure out a clearer way to state this.
    Jan 23 01:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shorts Forum [View instapost]
    Backtest.org

    pri/h52 > 0.9 is pretty much always awesome. Even when the market goes down, recent momentum holds up. Historically, at least.
    Jan 22 11:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
611 Comments
439 Likes