Friday, the Commerce Department will report September international trade in goods and services. The trade deficit—the amount imports exceed exports—is expected to rise to $32.5 billion from $30.7 billion in August.

The trade deficit was a principal cause of the Great Recession. Now, it threatens to torpedo the economic recovery and keep unemployment above 10 percent for the foreseeable future.

Stocks are soaring, yet unemployment surges and the dollar slumps. A contradiction made possible by Washington’s neglect of international challenges to U.S. growth.

The economy continues to bleed jobs, even as GDP rebounds. Employment may be a lagging indicator, but job losses should have abated by now even if a lot of new jobs are not being added.

Coming off a deep recession, GDP growth should have been much stronger than the 3.5 percent recorded in the third quarter. A poorly conceived and badly executed stimulus package and the failure to correct structural problems that caused the Great Recession are holding down growth. Consequently, the economy is not creating jobs, and certainly not creating good paying, full-time jobs with benefits.

Prior observation is the last official release figure. For data where the the figure to be released is a revision of a prior preliminary estimate, as is sometimes the case with GDP, productivity or Michigan consumer sentiment, the prior observation is the preliminary release figure; where no official preliminary figure has been released, the prior observation is the release figure for the previous period.

As the dollar falls against the euro, yen and other major currencies, China and other emerging economic powers holding lots of dollars and U.S. securities are crying foul, and for an end to the dollar’s central status in global commerce.

If they are truly disgusted, they should look to themselves for answers.

As the dollar falls against the euro, yen and other major currencies, China and other emerging economic powers holding lots of dollars and U.S. securities are crying foul, and for an end to the dollar’s central status in global commerce.

If they are truly disgusted, they should look to themselves for answers.

Friday’s employment report provides a key indicator of economic recovery.

Monthly job losses must continue to fall to bolster confidence and consumer spending. In August, the economy shed 216,000 jobs, and the consensus forecast is for another 170,000 jobs lost in September. If job losses exceed 200,000, prospects for strong second half GDP growth will dim significantly.

Friday’s employment report provides a key indicator of economic recovery.

Monthly job losses must continue to fall to bolster confidence and consumer spending. In August, the economy shed 216,000 jobs, and the consensus forecast is for another 170,000 jobs lost in September. If job losses exceed 200,000, prospects for strong second half GDP growth will dim significantly.

Public opposition threatens to crush President Obama’s healthcare reforms and wound his presidency, because his plans would do more harm than good.

The enhanced status for the G20 and new national policy audits announced in Pittsburgh are hardly the great progress being proclaimed by government officials.

The elevation of the G20 to supersede the G8 in status merely recognizes reality. The salient issues, other than bank regulatory reform, require genuine action from China and other prominent developing countries, which are members of the G20 but not members of the G8.

Wall Street greed and irresponsibility have nearly destroyed the U.S. economy. Big bonuses for bankers encourage reckless risk taking and were a principal cause of the credit crisis and Great Recession.

Pay must be regulated to avoid another calamity.

On Thursday, the Commerce Department will report July international trade in goods and services. The trade deficit, which is the amount imports exceed exports, is expected to rise to $28.0 billion from $27.0 billion in May.

The trade deficit was a principal cause of the Great Recession, threatens to stifle recovery and push unemployment above 10 percent through 2011.

On Friday, the US Labor Department will report employment data for August. In July, the economy lost 247,000 jobs, and the consensus forecast is for another 200,000 jobs lost in August.

Unemployment was 9.4 per cent in July, and professional forecasters expect it to surge to 9.6 per cent for August. My forecast indicates it will pierce 10 per cent by year-end. Factoring in adults that have left the labour force and those who work part-time but would prefer full-time jobs, the unemployment rate is greater than 17 per cent.

Like a boxer staggering to its feet, the U.S. economy is recovering.

Since May, real consumer spending has been gradually rising. Technology spending is looking up, as computers age and Asian growth pulls demand for sophisticated components. New home construction is showing new life.

These will permit 2 percent GDP growth in the second half of 2009, but a second credit squeeze could knock down the economy again.

Regional banks are in a sorry state, laboring under failing commercial loans. Through August 2009, the FDIC closed or merged 83 banks into stronger institutions and 400 more banks are on the critical list.

Will the economic recovery be enduring—V shaped? Collapse after a short time—W shaped? For the middle class, it may be none at all—an X.

By conventional wisdom, the housing bubble, credit crisis and collapse in consumer spending caused the recession.

If Daniel Webster were alive, the Blue Dogs in the House of Representatives would do well to seek his counsel. On health care, these conservative-leaning lawmakers are caught between the public trust and the devil.

Intolerance has captured the Democratic Party, and arrogance will destroy its grip on power.

On marquee issues—health care, cap and trade, and the recession—Democratic leaders are unwilling to listen to the legitimate concerns of center-leaning voters and business leaders who made possible their victories in 2008.

President Obama and congressional Democrats have failed to convince the American people their reforms will improve the national health care system.

For sure, the U.S. system is in need of repair. The United States spends 18 percent of GDP on health care, while Canada and prosperous European nations spend about 12 percent. Outcomes are comparable—by some measures U.S. health care is better and by some measures those nations get better results. However, the United States has tens of millions of people without insurance who either can’t get it or afford it.

U.S. health care is broken but President Obama’s reforms would raise costs and subsidize the beast with taxes on small businesses and the successful.

Americans spend 18 percent of GDP on health care, and Obama’s patches and plugs would push that above 20.

U.S.-China talks won’t accomplish much on economic issues because the Obama Administration is reluctant to push China on its purposeful manipulation of currency markets and undervaluation of the yuan.

Analysts argue, and the White House seems to agree, that the United States can’t push China much on the yuan or on many other issues, because it buys so much U.S. debt. That is silly.