Senate Democrats have managed a compromise on a health care bill that is a fraud on the American public, which is increasingly leery about a government run health care option.

Instead of a government health service to provide coverage to individuals not covered by company plans, the Senate Bill authorizes the federal Office of Personal Management to contract with a nonprofit insurer to provide an alternative to private health care plans.

You've got to admit that President Obama obfuscates embarrassing facts and pays off his supporters as well as any politician since Huey Long.

He slams health insurance companies, while endorsing heath care reforms that would compel thirty more million Americans to buy their policies or face a poll tax.

White House chief economic advisor Lawrence Summers has declared the recession over, but as with most things economic, the opinion you get depends on who you ask.

Seven million families are behind on their mortgages and at risk of foreclosure, and 25 million Americans wanting full time work can’t find it. I doubt many of them would share Mr. Summer’s rosy assessment of the business climate.

The trade deficit, new home buyer tax credits and Federal Reserve support for the mortgage market threaten a double dip recession.

More than anything, U.S. businesses need customers—people buying American-made goods and services—to hire workers and continue the economic recovery.

American workers face a jobless recovery and more stimulus spending won’t fix what’s broke.

Unemployment fell to 10 percent in November, but progress was achieved only because 291,000 more adults did not look for work and were not counted in the monthly tally of jobless Americans.

Job losses at only 11,000 was good news but unemployment fell to 10 percent as much because folks left the labor force--throwing up their arms in frustration--as folks finding new work.

In the household survey used to calculate the unemployment rate, 227,000 adults were added to the rolls of the employed or self-employed but the number choosing not to look for work increased 291,000.

The economy continues to bleed jobs, even as GDP rebounds. Employment may be a lagging indicator, but job losses should have abated by now even if a lot of new jobs are not being added.

Coming off a deep recession, GDP growth should have been much stronger than the 2.8 percent recorded in the third quarter. A poorly conceived and badly executed stimulus package and the failure to correct structural problems that caused the Great Recession are holding down growth. Consequently, the economy is not creating jobs, and certainly not creating good paying, full-time jobs with benefits.

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
	Forecast	Prior Observation	Consensus
Week of November 30
November 30
Chicago PMI - November	53.0	54.2	53.0
December 1
Construction Spending - October	-0.4%	0.8	-0.4
Pending Home Sales - October	110.7	110.1	109.7
ISM (Mfg) - November	55.0	55.7	55.0
ISM (Mfg) - Prices	65.8	65.0	65.0
Auto Sales* - November	10.30M	10.46	10.52
Car Sales	5.40	5.51
Truck Sales	4.90	4.96
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
December 2
ADP Employment - November	-165K	-203	-160
December 3
Initial Unemployment Claims	475K	466	485
ISM Services - November	51.1	50.6	51.5
ISM Prices	55.0	53.0
ISM Business Activity	55.5	55.2	55.4
Productivity - Q3(r)	8.8%	9.5	8.6
Unit Labor Costs	-4.5	-5.2	-4.2
December 4
Nonfarm Payrolls - November	-160K	-190	-130
Manufacturing	-50	-61	-46
Unemployment	10.2%	10.2	10.2
Average Workweek	33.0Hrs	33.0	33.1
Averagate Hourly Earnings	0.2%	0.3	0.2
Factory Orders - October	-0.2%	0.9	0.0
Durable Goods Orders	-0.5	1.4
Nondurable Goods Orders	-0.1	0.6
Week of December 7
December 7
Consumer Credit - October	-$8.0B	-14.8	-9.5
December 9
Wholesale Inventories - October	-0.5%	-0.9	-0.5
December 10
Interntional Trade - October	-$38.0B	-36.5	-36.1
December 11
Retail Sales - November	0.3%	1.4	0.4
Retail Sales, ex autos	0.4	0.2	0.5
Retail Sales, autos and parts	0.0	8.3
Export Prices - November	0.4%	0.3	0.3
Import Prices - November	0.8%	0.7	1.0
Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Dec (p)	68.2	67.4	68.2
Business Inventories - October	-0.5%	-1.5	-0.2

Prior observation is the last official release figure. For data where the the figure to be released is a revision of a prior preliminary estimate, as is sometimes the case with GDP, productivity or Michigan consumer sentiment, the prior observation is the preliminary release figure; where no official preliminary figure has been released, the prior observation is the release figure for the previous period.

Tuesday, the Commerce Department will report revised data for third quarter GDP.

Third quarter growth likely will be revised down to 2.8 percent from the 3.5 percent reported on October 29. The economy contracted 0.7 percent in the second quarter.

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data
	Forecast	Prior Observation	Consensus
Week of November 23
November 23
Exisiting Home Sales - October	5.64M	5.57	5.70
November 24
GDP - Q3 (p)	2.8%	3.5	2.8
GDP Implicit Price Deflator	0.8	0.8	0.8
PCE	3.4	3.4
PCE Deflator	2.8	2.8	2.8
PCE Core Deflator	1.4	1.4	1.4
S&P Case/Shiller Index - September
Ten City M/M	0.8%	1.3
Ten City Y/Y	-8.2	-10.6
Twenty City M/M	0.8	1.2	0.8
Twenty City Y/Y	-9.0	-11.3	-9.0
Second Quarter Twenty City Q/Q	3.9	-1.9	3.9
Consumer Confidence - November	48.0%	47.7	47.7
November 25
Personal Income - October	0.2%	0.0	0,2
Personal Spending	0.4	-0.5	0.5
PCE Price Index	0.3	0.1
Core PCE Price Index	0.2	0.1	0.1
Real Personal Spending	0.1	-0.6
Initial Unemployment Claims	500K	505	500
Durable Goods Orders - October	0.5%	1.4	0.5
New Home Sales - October	415K	402	410
Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Nov (r)	66.5	66.0	67.0
Week of November 30
November 30
Chicago PMI - November	53.0	54.2	53.0
December 1
Construction Spending - October	-0.4%	0.8	-0.5
Pending Home Sales - October	110.1	110.1
ISM (Mfg) - November	55.0	55.7	55.0
ISM (Mfg) - Prices	65.8	65.0	65.5
Auto Sales* - November	10.23M	10.46	10.42
Car Sales	5.34	5.52
Truck Sales	4.88	4.96
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
December 2
ADP Employment - November	-165K	-203	-177
December 3
ISM Services - November	51.1	50.6	51.0
ISM Prices	55.0	53.0
ISM Business Activity	56.0	55.2	55.0
Productivity - Q3(r)	8.8%	9.5	8.9
Unit Labor Costs	-4.5	-5.2	-4.7
December 4
Nonfarm Payrolls - November	-160K	-190	-145
Manufacturing	-50	-61	-50
Unemployment	10.2%	10.2	10.2
Average Workweek	33.0Hrs	33.0	33.0
Averagate Hourly Earnings	0.2%	0.3
Factory Orders - October	0.4%	0.9	0.4
Durable Goods Orders	0.5	1.4

Prior observation is the last official release figure. For data where the the figure to be released is a revision of a prior preliminary estimate, as is sometimes the case with GDP, productivity or Michigan consumer sentiment, the prior observation is the preliminary release figure; where no official preliminary figure has been released, the prior observation is the release figure for the previous period.

From Berlin to Bangkok, governments are screaming about the falling dollar, because they can no longer rely on reckless American consumers to power their economies.

From the late 1980s to 2007, the global economy enjoyed The Great Moderation—low inflation and sustained growth interrupted by brief recessions. Driving global growth was an eight fold increase in the U.S. trade deficit, facilitated by a doubling of the value of the dollar against other currencies from 1989 to 2002.

Friday, the Commerce Department will report September international trade in goods and services. The trade deficit—the amount imports exceed exports—is expected to rise to $32.5 billion from $30.7 billion in August.

The trade deficit was a principal cause of the Great Recession. Now, it threatens to torpedo the economic recovery and keep unemployment above 10 percent for the foreseeable future.

Stocks are soaring, yet unemployment surges and the dollar slumps. A contradiction made possible by Washington’s neglect of international challenges to U.S. growth.

The economy continues to bleed jobs, even as GDP rebounds. Employment may be a lagging indicator, but job losses should have abated by now even if a lot of new jobs are not being added.

Coming off a deep recession, GDP growth should have been much stronger than the 3.5 percent recorded in the third quarter. A poorly conceived and badly executed stimulus package and the failure to correct structural problems that caused the Great Recession are holding down growth. Consequently, the economy is not creating jobs, and certainly not creating good paying, full-time jobs with benefits.

Prior observation is the last official release figure. For data where the the figure to be released is a revision of a prior preliminary estimate, as is sometimes the case with GDP, productivity or Michigan consumer sentiment, the prior observation is the preliminary release figure; where no official preliminary figure has been released, the prior observation is the release figure for the previous period.

As the dollar falls against the euro, yen and other major currencies, China and other emerging economic powers holding lots of dollars and U.S. securities are crying foul, and for an end to the dollar’s central status in global commerce.

If they are truly disgusted, they should look to themselves for answers.

As the dollar falls against the euro, yen and other major currencies, China and other emerging economic powers holding lots of dollars and U.S. securities are crying foul, and for an end to the dollar’s central status in global commerce.

If they are truly disgusted, they should look to themselves for answers.

Friday’s employment report provides a key indicator of economic recovery.

Monthly job losses must continue to fall to bolster confidence and consumer spending. In August, the economy shed 216,000 jobs, and the consensus forecast is for another 170,000 jobs lost in September. If job losses exceed 200,000, prospects for strong second half GDP growth will dim significantly.

Friday’s employment report provides a key indicator of economic recovery.

Monthly job losses must continue to fall to bolster confidence and consumer spending. In August, the economy shed 216,000 jobs, and the consensus forecast is for another 170,000 jobs lost in September. If job losses exceed 200,000, prospects for strong second half GDP growth will dim significantly.

Public opposition threatens to crush President Obama’s healthcare reforms and wound his presidency, because his plans would do more harm than good.