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Peter Osterlund

 
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  • Facebook Hits A New All-Time Low: Buy Soon [View article]
    Google trades at 13x forward EPS. Facebook trades at 35x forward EPS.

    You say that "it seems a bit ludicrous for the market to be valuing" FB at current levels.

    It's "ludicrous"? Really?
    Aug 1 04:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here Come The Bulls Of Summer [View article]

    Bond action is unsettling (I wrote this--http://bit.ly/Lp7dRz --about a week after I wrote Bulls of Summer by way of musing on the immediate freefall in equity prices) but commodity prices (energy, copper) anticipate greater economic activity.

    On the other hand, China is flashing some truly ominous danger signals (I might try to write about that next week).

    In any event, I agree with you: Something's up. Rest assured, big hands hold the throttles to the the world's major economic inputs. Let's just hope they handle the controls competently.
    Jun 30 10:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here Come The Bulls Of Summer [View article]
    Yes, I understand. But, frankly, I think you're going to wait a long time for that. Maybe forever.

    A lot of people got left on the sidelines of the rally off the 2009 lows, insisting all the way up that it wasn't "real." At some point, one must decide whether the definition of "real" has changed. In many respects, I envy my grandfather's generation of investors: Things just never got this existential on their watch.
    Jun 30 10:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here Come The Bulls Of Summer [View article]

    No, you didn't, but I did! Just got busy and it got away from me. In any event, it's summer now, and here's the stampede...
    Jun 29 10:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here Come The Bulls Of Summer [View article]
    Will do! Please keep an eye out for the follow-up on Tuesday, June 5!
    May 22 10:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here Come The Bulls Of Summer [View article]
    Yes, indeed that was the title. But it isn't summer yet!

    In all seriousness, though, the point was to alert people to the possibility that they may want to get positioned for an impending bull rally. In my case, that meant closing shorts and being watchful.

    My intention with this article was to point out what I believe to be significant indications of an impending change-in-climate. While several individuals disagreed my conclusions, I've yet to hear anyone assert that the variances I highlighted are insignificant, not to mention why.

    Having said that, you might (or might not) be interested in this reconsideration of the context in which things are unfolding at the moment. You'll find it here: http://bit.ly/K6jbj3
    May 21 10:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here Come The Bulls Of Summer [View article]
    Now that you mention it, I think the "sold too soon" quote belongs Jesse Livermore. Thanks for the correction.
    May 21 09:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here Come The Bulls Of Summer [View article]
    I'd loved to have closed my shorts here, of course. But, as Bernard Baruch once said by way of explaining the source of his great fortune: "I sold too soon."
    May 17 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here Come The Bulls Of Summer [View article]
    Yes. Fascinating. Dollar fell while Treasures rose, with the 10-yr brushing against an all-time low yield. Taken a face value, one could say the market is pricing in a deflationary environment--e.g., a depression. In a leveraged environment such as ours, that outcome would be lethal, and we can be sure that Ben B. and his fellow central bankers will do all they can to fight it and that, should they fail, t-bonds won't do investors much good; they'll be better off with crossbows.

    So for just what, exactly, is the market discounting?
    May 17 02:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here Come The Bulls Of Summer [View article]
    Could not agree more. Trend is your friend...until it ends.

    And of course, one's perception of trend depends on one's timeframe of interest. A violent downtrend on an intraday or even daily timeframe, can be a welcome pullback on a weekly or monthly scale.

    Bottom line: We agree that it's been quite the downtrend for the past month. I'm out of my shorts now. You aren't. Great! That's what makes a market!
    May 17 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here Come The Bulls Of Summer [View article]


    Yes, indeed. "Trade what you see, not what somebody else thinks..."
    May 17 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here Come The Bulls Of Summer [View article]
    I see I somehow conflated my response to you and to Larry Reaves in my response, above, to Larry Reaves. Still waking up, I guess!
    May 17 05:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here Come The Bulls Of Summer [View article]
    Spot on. Couldn't agree more.
    May 17 05:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here Come The Bulls Of Summer [View article]
    Well, I did keep this article focused on one significant piece of the puzzle many people tend to overlook: The performance of "bear trades" and "bull trades" relative to major indexes. And, although an historical survey of the relevant data points is beyond the scope of this exercise, the material is "out there", amply documented by individuals far more capable than I

    But since you mentioned issues of global performance...

    You're right, of course. If the world doesn't perform, neither can the US. But that was a problem a year ago. Greece was a problem. Japan was a problem. China (w.r.t. stimulation of domestic demand) was a problem. That hasn't changed. What has changed, however, is the Merkozy austerity axis: In fact, it's now gone. As for Asia, look no further than China's lowering of bank reserves to see where the region's headed.

    As for the rocket fuel, we've been stockpiling some of it over the last few weeks. It's called short interest.

    Not sure what you mean w.r.t. USD, but, yes, rising dollar will drag on equities for now
    May 17 05:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here Come The Bulls Of Summer [View article]
    Well yes, there's that. But, to paraphrase Keynes, sometimes the crowd can seem "right" for a lot longer than one can remain solvent...
    May 16 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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