Peter Pham's Instablog Hello. I am Peter Pham, and AlphaVN.com is my creation. As a former proprietary trader with expertise in institutional sales and trading based in Vietnam, my approach is to mix quantitative trading techniques and fundamental analysis to provide a unique view of the changes taking place in the emerging markets of Southeast Asia. Those changes create opportunities for both domestic and international investors. I also advise some of the largest international fund managers in the world on how to trade and approach Vietnam’s markets. Some of my current picks have returned more than 100% since early 2011. This background has helped me build my local and international network of contacts, through organizing company roadshows and conferences, and has enabled me to embark on exciting new ventures. In the past year, AlphaVN has grown from a personal project to a respected voice covering Asian markets. Through AlphaVN's partnership with Stocktwits.com, it is now possible to interact with an audience of up to 40 million people through both traditional media outlets like Reuters, CNN Money and newer online investment resources like Yahoo Finance. Having worked on both sides of the world (Asia and North America), I can help bridge the communication gap between East and West. I am able to illuminate the difference between Asia in theory and Asia in reality for market professionals from momentum traders to generational investors. Building on this relationship, AlphaVN also has syndication partnerships with leading financial resource providers. On Seeking Alpha, my work has generated enough traffic to garner top readership in multiple categories including Forex, Demographics and ETF Long and Short Ideas. On The Motley Fool, more than a dozen pieces gestated here at AlphaVN have been chosen Editor's Choice and have generated significant traffic and discussion. AlphaVN has signed a strategic partnership agreement with AWR Lloyd, a research and advisory firm Southeast Asia, to better tell the story of commodity and infrastructure investment. 2012 also saw the publication of my first book, The Big Trade: Simple Solutions for Maximum Market Returns by Wiley. Dedicated to telling the story of the billions under-served by the financial press, AlphaVN.com is becoming a unique offering in the world of information, creating a vital link for investors in the West seeking solid information about the economic changes happening in the East. It is our goal to provide the most accurate accounting of their money's true potential in these markets. Our position is that as Southeast Asia grows, AlphaVN will grow alongside it by providing the right information at the right time to the right people, no matter where they might be. It is through partnerships in media and both sides of the investment aisle that we hope to bring Southeast Asia's compelling story to the investing world. Peter Pham http://seekingalpha.com/author/peter-pham/instablog Diminishing Returns on Vietnamese Equities http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/805004-peter-pham/123437-diminishing-returns-on-vietnamese-equities?source=feed 123437 If we examine the history of the VN Index, we find that, excluding stock splits, the highest price ever for a stock was 295,134 VND for BMC.VN on 10/17/07. Hence, we can use 295,134 VND as a precedent for stock prices in Vietnam especially in a range bound market. Relative to other markets where price ranges for stocks are significantly wider we find that stocks trading above 80,000 VND in price are quite rare. Below, we examine the number of stocks since 2006 that have been various price ranges. 

Price Range (VND) # 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
300,000 - 200,000 6   6      
199,999-100000 31 1 23 1 3 3
99999-90000 11   4 2 4 1
89999-80000 14   6   1 7

 

ETF investors into Vietnamese products, should also note the potential range bound nature and exhaustion Vietnamese equities experience on highs.



Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
]]> Mon, 27 Dec 2010 00:28:32 -0500 If we examine the history of the VN Index, we find that, excluding stock splits, the highest price ever for a stock was 295,134 VND for BMC.VN on 10/17/07. Hence, we can use 295,134 VND as a precedent for stock prices in Vietnam especially in a range bound market. Relative to other markets where price ranges for stocks are significantly wider we find that stocks trading above 80,000 VND in price are quite rare. Below, we examine the number of stocks since 2006 that have been various price ranges. 

Price Range (VND) # 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
300,000 - 200,000 6   6      
199,999-100000 31 1 23 1 3 3
99999-90000 11   4 2 4 1
89999-80000 14   6   1 7

 

ETF investors into Vietnamese products, should also note the potential range bound nature and exhaustion Vietnamese equities experience on highs.



Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
]]> vnm Vietnam VNM ETF and Alpha Returns http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/805004-peter-pham/123406-vnm-etf-and-alpha-returns?source=feed 123406 By constructing a portfolio of the largest market weighted stocks that have outperformed the market during a period of time and rebalancing the portfolio yearly could provide index outperformance. The ration is that trends deserve at least twice the portfolio weight relative to the VN Index. The model portfolio has faired quite well relative to the VN Index. Interestingly, alot of these stocks are also found on the ETF VNM.

Ticker Beta:Y-1 Alpha:Y-1 Index Weight Portfolio Weight
VNM 0.96 0.11 7.2 14.48
BVH 0.94 0.12 6.4 12.86
VIC 0.81 0.33 5.6 11.14
HAG 1.1 0.17 5.0 10.03
FPT 0.97 0.14 3.3 6.5
DPM 0.99 -0.13 2.6 5.19
STB 0.95 -0.12 2.5 4.94
HPG 1.07 -0.03 2.5 4.93
PVF 1.21 -0.19 2.3 4.66
SSI 1.15 -0.01 2.3 4.52
PVD 0.99 -0.1 2.1 4.11
KBC 1.03 0.1 2.0 4.08
ITA 1.24 0 1.5 2.99
SJS 1.12 0.1 1.5 2.92
KDC 0.94 0.16 1.2 2.42

It turns out, that the ETF in Vietnam plays a big roll on the stock performance of the above list. As many of these stocks will be a by product of indexation by ETF fund managers. Therefore, investors should seek to bid for the VNM ETF product as seasonal tendencies and indexation will support the 1H of 2011.


Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
]]> Sun, 26 Dec 2010 15:57:44 -0500 By constructing a portfolio of the largest market weighted stocks that have outperformed the market during a period of time and rebalancing the portfolio yearly could provide index outperformance. The ration is that trends deserve at least twice the portfolio weight relative to the VN Index. The model portfolio has faired quite well relative to the VN Index. Interestingly, alot of these stocks are also found on the ETF VNM.

Ticker Beta:Y-1 Alpha:Y-1 Index Weight Portfolio Weight
VNM 0.96 0.11 7.2 14.48
BVH 0.94 0.12 6.4 12.86
VIC 0.81 0.33 5.6 11.14
HAG 1.1 0.17 5.0 10.03
FPT 0.97 0.14 3.3 6.5
DPM 0.99 -0.13 2.6 5.19
STB 0.95 -0.12 2.5 4.94
HPG 1.07 -0.03 2.5 4.93
PVF 1.21 -0.19 2.3 4.66
SSI 1.15 -0.01 2.3 4.52
PVD 0.99 -0.1 2.1 4.11
KBC 1.03 0.1 2.0 4.08
ITA 1.24 0 1.5 2.99
SJS 1.12 0.1 1.5 2.92
KDC 0.94 0.16 1.2 2.42

It turns out, that the ETF in Vietnam plays a big roll on the stock performance of the above list. As many of these stocks will be a by product of indexation by ETF fund managers. Therefore, investors should seek to bid for the VNM ETF product as seasonal tendencies and indexation will support the 1H of 2011.


Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
]]> vnm Vietnam