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Peter Schiff  

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  • Quake Response Puts Yen on the Line [View article]
    If you really believe that by lessening the value of its currency, thereby reducing the value of Japanese savings and wages, Japan can improve its economy, why not really trash the yen and set off an economic boom. In fact, Japan could print enough yen to finance the entire U.S. budget deficit (I'm sure China would appreciate the help and the Fed would actually be able to postpone QE3 for a while). Better yet, why not just print up an extra thirty trillion or so while they're at it and mail every American a $1000 voucher good towards the purchase of Japanese products. The BOJ could create a Japanese renaissance!
    Mar 23, 2011. 05:00 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It's Not Different This Time [View article]
    I have not forecast Dow 2000. In fact, I have stated on numerous occasions that the Fed will create enough inflation to prevent such a decline in nominal stock prices from happening. However I still maintain that one day the Dow will be worth approximately 1 ounce of gold. Today it is worth 8.5. I first made that forecast back in 2000, when the Dow was worth over 40 ounces of gold. I think the prediction remains on track.
    Sep 29, 2010. 09:44 AM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Country Stock Market Performance Since March 9th, 2009 and October 9th, 2007 [View article]
    I am pretty sure these numbers are in local currency. If you express the returns in U.S. dollars, which is the proper way to do it, you will see the U.S. ranks much lower.
    Mar 8, 2010. 07:27 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gregory Zuckerman's 'The Greatest Trade Ever' Is Easy to Relate to [View article]
    Yes, but in 2007 I put clients in a hedge fund that I helped start that made the same trade as Paulson. That fund actually had an even better percentage return then Paulson's. However, as it was so much smaller, it did not get nearly as much attention. My problem was that most of my retail clients either did not want to invest in the fund, or the fund was not suitable given FINRA rules
    Dec 21, 2009. 08:11 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Health Care Bill: Prescription for Disaster [View article]
    The founding fathers disagree. That is why there is no mention of health care in the declaration of independence, the body of the constitution, or the bill of rights. So until we amend the constitution, the federal government has no legal authority to provide heath care or health insurance to anyone. Don't you think people got sick back in 1776? Don't you think we had doctors back then? If our founders believed health care was a right, they certainly would have included it it our founding documents. The fact that they specifically left it out proves that it is not a right!

    On Jul 19 11:01 AM kirkf wrote:

    > Start with a basic premise: All citizens of a civilized country must
    > have equal access to quality health care, regardless of race, creed
    > or economic status.
    > That should be written into the constitution.
    > Work upwards from there.
    Jul 21, 2009. 07:27 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gary Shilling: Say Goodbye to the Great Gatsby Era [View article]
    Thanks Mark, lots of comments -- at least we started a good discussion. So far 2009 seems to be going our way. Perhaps by the end of 2010 this debate will be settled.

    On May 15 01:18 PM TraderMark wrote:

    > Hi Peter, I didn't flesh out the thought - it was "wrong in 2008"
    > (latter) - the US Dollar strength and weakness in foreign equities.
    > You were very right in 2006 and 2007 and I've been following your
    > thoughts for a long time. Hope that helps to explain, I didn't expand
    > on my thought completely and the wording above makes it look worse
    > than it was ;) My comment was Schilling nailed the 2008 themes to
    > a tee, unlike most of us who thought this egregious behavior would
    > smash the dollar.... also there was no oasis in foreign stocks which
    > on a relative basis was a theme.
    May 17, 2009. 11:33 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gary Shilling: Say Goodbye to the Great Gatsby Era [View article]
    The subtitle to my book is "How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse" not the coming "stock market" collapse. That collapse is only just getting started. By the time it ends, I'm sure those who follow my advice will indeed profit.

    On May 15 12:12 PM Robotto wrote:

    > Peter,
    > Your book is called "Crash Proof". "Crash" does not happen over years.
    > "Crash" is something that happens quickly. Your are supposed to protect
    > your clients from the "crash", which happened last fall. So, you
    > can't suddenly claim that your definition of "crash" is something
    > that takes years.
    May 15, 2009. 01:12 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gary Shilling: Say Goodbye to the Great Gatsby Era [View article]
    The above comment is simply wrong. While some of my accounts were down 60%, most were not. Many who were down big in 2008 simply gave up profits earned during prior years and were still ahead. I just spoke with one client today whose account was down by over 50% at the lows last year, but whose account is now down by less then 25%. He did not add any money or rebalance any positions. He did however reinvest some dividends (the only cash he held in this account) that had accumulated.

    The point is that despite being fully invested at the top he has already recovered half his paper losses in just a few months. Who knows what this account will be worth in a few years? My guess is that over time it will deliver a solid overall return, despite poor short-term performance in 2008.

    Since all accounts are different and self-directed, I cannot hold any one account out as being indicative of performance of all my clients. However, as I cannot point to my best accounts to defend my investment strategy, my critics should not point to the worst performers to discredit it.
    May 15, 2009. 11:09 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gary Shilling: Say Goodbye to the Great Gatsby Era [View article]
    Why do you accuse me of getting the investment theme wrong? I started preparing my clients for this crisis many years ago. Since the late 1990’s I have advised investors to get out of the dollar, own foreign stocks instead of domestic stocks, and own gold and other commodities. My major theme has been that the U.S. borrow and spend economy was a bubble that was destine to burst. I believed that economic dominance of the global economy would shift east, and I stressed China and natural resources. Thus far over the past 10 years, that advice has worked out extremely well. However if you judge my strategy based solely on how it preformed during the most recent major correction, you reach an unfair conclusion as to its effectiveness. Judging my long-term investment strategy based on a few bad months in 2008 is analogous to judging Warren Buffet’s performance based on the results achieved from Aug 1987 to Nov 1987.

    Also, you need to look at how well my strategy has preformed since Oct. 2008, which marked the low point for most of my stocks. Since I advised investors to keep some powder dry to take advantage of short-term dips that might occur in foreign markets as a consequence of our economic problems, many were able to take advantage of what so far looks to have been an incredible buying opportunities.

    Also by only looking at one part of my investment strategy you overlook other parts that did well in 2008. Do you realize that I helped form one of the only hedge funds in the nation that was established specifically to short subprime mortgages? We formed the fund in late 2006. My clients provided the seed capital for that fund and you can only imagine how well it preformed. I also advised shorting many U.S. stocks, specifically financials and homebuilders.

    For whatever reason several people who post on this site seem to get some kind of satisfaction in criticizing the performance of my investment strategy despite such criticism being completely unwarranted by the facts. That’s fine with me, as I would rather make money while being publicly criticized for losing it, then lose money in obscurity.

    May 15, 2009. 09:05 AM | 65 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Cult of Peter Schiff - Is It Deserved? [View article]
    Why do you guys keep picking 2002 as the first year I became bearish on U.S. stocks? I was also bearish in 1999, so why not pick that date? It is unfair to say I first got bearish in 2002 simply because that year marked a significant market bottom. However, it is important that the markets that I was bullish on in 2002, foreign stocks, commodities, oil, gold, foreign currencies, etc all outperformed the U.S. market until 2008.

    Also you mentioned the Lahde fund without mentioning that I gave Andy the seed capital to start his fund when no one else would. The original investors in that fund were all Euro Pacific clients.
    Jan 26, 2009. 07:27 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Being Wrong for Five Years Makes Peter Schiff Right Now? [View article]
    Another thing

    Watch that video again, what did I recommend -- Sell U.S. stocks, get out of the dollar, buy high yielding foreign stocks, and buy commodities, including gold and oil.

    Lets see back in May 2002 the Down was over 10,000 and the NASDAQ was at 1700. So in the past 6 years, U.S stocks are DOWN about 25% Also the dollar Index was at 107, and even with the recent rally is only at 88, or a decline of %18. Oil was at $30 per barrel, now $50 and gold was at $300 per ounce and is now at about $750.

    In addition, most foreign stock markets are still well above May 2002 levels, and with high dividend yields, they have considerably out-preformed U.S stocks.

    Check your facts next time!!
    Nov 20, 2008. 04:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Being Wrong for Five Years Makes Peter Schiff Right Now? [View article]
    It's me. I have never commented on this site before and do not know how to link to my bio. Just watch the full interview and form your own opinion.

    I put that video up on my web site for a reason. It is not as though Sullivan had to dig it up!
    Nov 19, 2008. 03:41 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Being Wrong for Five Years Makes Peter Schiff Right Now? [View article]
    One last point. I first made my NASDAQ 500 prediction when it hit it's high of 5,000 in 2000. Pretty close wouldn't you say. I wonder what Todd Sullivan was saying about the NASDAQ back then? I sure know what most people were saying in 2000 when I predicted a 90% crash in the NASDAQ. I guess I was wrong as it only fell 80% -- but as i wrote, at the rate it is now falling it might hit 500 yet. Of course, adjusted for inflation, its practically there already!
    Nov 19, 2008. 03:11 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Being Wrong for Five Years Makes Peter Schiff Right Now? [View article]
    One more point -- I am not the one who has been wrong for five years, that distinction belongs to my critics who foolishly believed the bubble economy inflating before their eyes was real. My guess is that Todd Sullivan is among the many who were so completely fooled!
    Nov 19, 2008. 03:01 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Being Wrong for Five Years Makes Peter Schiff Right Now? [View article]
    I stand by every prediction I made back then. Watch the entire show then decide. As for my Dow and Nasdaq forecasts, they would have come true had the real estate bubble burst sooner. However, adjusted for inflation, those predictions will come true as well --who knows, at the rate we are falling we might even get there nominally as well.

    Also, if you have time watch a 2006 presentation I gave to a convention of mortgage bankers and tell me how wrong I was!
    Nov 19, 2008. 02:57 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment