Seeking Alpha

Peter Tchir

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Peter Tchir's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Loomis Sayles' Matt Egan issues a bit of a warning on high-yield, noting their only upside at this point is the coupon (not something to sneeze at). If prices rise any further, expect issuers to refinance into lower rates. The downside is defaults, and with the default rate as low as it currently is, they can only go in one direction. [View news story]
    the upside isn't the coupon, because the high coupons are on bonds that have a pull to par effect. total return is very constrained.
    Dec 6 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Move In Fixed-Income Closed-End Funds, ETFs, And CDS [View article]
    with a reasonable NAV i would. If you want leveraged income when the CEF's are at a premium, buy hyg/jnk/lqd/bkln and use margin

    I don't necessarily recommend that, but buying HYG on margin isn't much different than buying a leveraged closed end fund, and the trade off of liquidity is worth something, let alone when the funds are at big premiums.

    and 10k vs 9800 doesn't bother me. 10k vs 8k is bad idea though.
    Nov 16 10:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Move In Fixed-Income Closed-End Funds, ETFs, And CDS [View article]
    As an update, I think we see selling relent now that we are near NAV. I think we will in fact see some buying interest.

    The CDS market may not have capitulated yet, but we gapped from 107 to 113 yesterday and finished the day at 111. Feels like mkt may have gotten carried away on the negatives.

    Looks like a CLO will price today, which is good, and expect the HY calendar to slow down starting next week.
    Nov 16 08:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Move In Fixed-Income Closed-End Funds, ETFs, And CDS [View article]
    I don't know, but took a quick look at AWF. Argentina which has been crushed lately shows up as a reasonably large holding. So they may be in some markets that have had real problems, but that was just a quick look on my part.
    Nov 16 08:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Move In Fixed-Income Closed-End Funds, ETFs, And CDS [View article]
    Thanks I will check some of them out. I generally have liked Wamco and Babson funds. The Pimco ones always seem to trade at too much of a premium, though i was surprised to see PFL was roughly in line with other leveraged loan funds.
    Nov 16 08:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Move In Fixed-Income Closed-End Funds, ETFs, And CDS [View article]
    That's what I thought as well, that they are basically "look through" as the muni ETF's pay dividends that are tax free
    Nov 16 08:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yield Trap: The PIMCO High Income Fund Is Too Good To Be True [View article]
    I'm surprised no one has commented on this article since the fiasco, great job on the article.
    Nov 15 02:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Junk Bond Bubble Myths Vs. Reality [View article]
    they are interesting, but they are a bit small and concentrated compared to the big broad etf's
    Nov 15 10:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jefferies - Too Small To Survive? [View article]
    Good call. I think JEF may have been holding out for more, but with problems at Knight, Rochdale, and Cantor losing its investment grade rating, they may have been more willing to accept the embrace of a deep pocketed investor at a lower price than they would have otherwise.
    Nov 13 08:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Junk Bond Bubble Myths Vs. Reality [View article]
    I have been arguing for over a year maybe even over 2 years that the fixed income allocation was far far far far too low, and only now getting back to reasonable levels. So no bubble. Hy bonds have often outperformed, in no small part because many investors can't buy high yield. Leveraged loans are more interesting because they are under rated, but that is another story.

    So no bubble but prepare for higher volatility as the euqitization of credit makes it more tradable.

    Haven't checked recently but far less of a drag in mut fund nav's and market - good in long run
    Nov 12 07:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fixed Income Overview And Allocation Strategies [View article]
    In core strategy we are moving BAB down by 10% and adding 10% to HY

    In traded selling BAB down to 0% and adding 10% to HY, we had already added 5% earlier in week. Adding a 5% allocation to LQD

    In aggressive we are selling out of BAB and buying 15% HY (already had 5%) . Adding a 10% allocation to LQD. Also adding a 2% allocation to NLY in the aggressive.
    Nov 9 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Issues With Corporate Junk Bonds [View article]
    I completely agree on the YTW publication. Seems like something the SEC should be all over them. On the Ishares website, if you pull up the bond details, they actually have a yield to worst number, but it is wrong.

    The duration seems based on maturity, which again, highly misleading for the high yield bonds.

    It should be surprising that this is allowed, but i guess nothing the enforcement agents ignore is surprising at this stage.
    Nov 6 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Issues With Corporate Junk Bonds [View article]
    None of the ETF's are fixed portfolios, so the "hold to maturity analysis" is a bit tough. The data for HYG and JNK is not totally accurate. Neither does a good job of providing good yield to call information on their websites. I am not sure why they don't since they have a column for it, but it doesn't match the drill down.
    Nov 3 08:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volumes, Volatility, And What They Actually Mean [View article]
    It has been awhile since I wrote this, but now, low VIX and volatility is becoming a concern to me.
    Sep 23 11:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why PIMCO's Junk-Bond ETF Is The Best Of Its Kind [View article]
    no, if the bond prices in the underlying bond fund don't change, then the value of the etf would rise each month by the dividend amount, and go back to where it started after the payment, so you would have $8k of dividends and a fund still worth $100k, just like the bond
    Sep 23 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,260 Comments
1,349 Likes